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Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros reacts after striking out against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning in Game 5 of the 2022 World Series at Citizens Bank Park.
Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros reacts after striking out against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning in Game 5 of the 2022 World Series at Citizens Bank Park. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP.

The Houston Astros are on the brink of their second World Series title in franchise history as they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead. Read on for our Phillies-Astros MLB picks.

If Philadelphia wants to win its third World Series title, the club will need to do something that hasn't happened since late September. That was the last time Houston lost back-to-back games, and the Astros have only dropped two contests the entire postseason.

Under the current playoff format, teams that won Game 5 on the road in a series tied at two games apiece have claimed victory at home in either Game 6 or 7 during 19 of the previous 24 instances. 

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Saturday’s World Series Game 6 between the Phillies and Astros (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and Draftkings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Phillies vs. Astros Game Info 

Date: Saturday, Nov. 5, 8:03 p.m. ET
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Weather: Indoors

Phillies vs. Astros Odds

Phillies vs. Astros Odds Analysis

Houston ranges anywhere from -141 to -154 as the moneyline favorite. Sharp action is on the Astros, who are attracting 69% of the bets and 89% of the cash. 

All sportsbooks are in unison with the total at 7. There's been solid two-way action, with the Over getting 63% of the bets and 54% of the cash.

Phillies vs. Astros Projected Pitchers

Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA, 1.039 WHIP) vs. Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA, 1.157 WHIP)

Wheeler was sensational through his four postseason starts, allowing five earned runs over 25 1/3 innings. However, he took the loss in Game 2 of this series after allowing four earned runs across five innings.

Meanwhile, Valdez surpassed his previous career high in wins (11) with six victories while leading the league in complete games (three) in 2022. He was also durable while facing a league-high 827 batters and owning an MLB-best 0.5 HR/9 rate. His 3.0 BB/9 rate and 3.06 FIP were his best for a full season. The lefty has allowed three earned runs over 19 innings in three postseason starts.

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Phillies vs. Astros Picks

Phillies vs. Astros ML Pick

Astros (-145) ★★★★★

Instead of using Wheeler on four days of rest in Game 5, the Phillies opted to push him back to start after resting for six days. When Wheeler's fastball velocity dropped 2-3 mph during his Game 2 start, manager Rob Thomson mentioned the hurler only returned from the IL on Sept. 21 after missing a month with right forearm tendinitis.

That's why the team felt it needed to give him extra rest. Wheeler's situation remains concerning heading into an elimination game against an Astros offense averaging more than four runs per game this postseason.

Philadelphia has done a great job of hitting for power during the playoffs, with 23 home runs and a team OPS of .706. However, the Phillies have also managed one hit over their last 21 at-bats with runners in scoring position. That's concerning when facing a pitcher of Valdez's caliber.

Phillies vs. Astros O/U Pick

Over 7 runs (+100) ★★

Philadelphia hit lefties better than righties all season. Against southpaws, the Phillies posted a 115 wRC+, .335 wOBA, .324 BABIP, and a .769 OPS. When facing right-handed pitching, those numbers dipped to 102 wRC+, .316 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .727 OPS. 

The Phillies' overall numbers against southpaws since the trade deadline also rank as some of the league's best. The team sits third in wRC+ (123) and wOBA (.346) while leading all clubs with a .373 BABIP during that span.

Combine that with Wheeler's potential arm fatigue, and the Over should cash.

Phillies vs. Astros Prop Pick 

Pena to record an RBI (+285) ★★

Pena is making it easy to realize why Houston was willing to let Carlos Correa walk during free agency.

He's 8-for-21 (.381) with three extra-base hits in this series following an ALCS when the 25-year-old was named MVP after going 7-for-16 (.353) with two home runs and two doubles. The infielder has logged three RBI through five games, including a first-inning double off Wheeler in Game 2. Expect similar success on Saturday.

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Astros-Phillies picks made 11/5/2022 at 8:25 a.m. ET.