WM Phoenix Open Sleepers & Long Shots: Dark-Horse Picks for TPC Scottsdale
The WM Phoenix Open annually serves as the appetizer on Super Bowl Sunday and there's no better way to set the table than with our sleeper and long-shot picks for The People's Open based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
Scottie Scheffler - still comfortably perched at No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) - enters the week as the consensus betting favorite by the WM Phoenix Open odds while looking for his third straight win in this event.
But where's the fun in that?
Long shots have been the theme of this PGA Tour season, and we're staying far away from Scheffler's odds (ranging from +450 to +500 across our best sports betting sites) with our top WM Phoenix Open sleepers and long shots.
Don't miss our WM Phoenix Open picks for our highest-confidence bets this week.
WM Phoenix Open sleepers
- Keith Mitchell to win (+10000 via FanDuel)
- Adam Schenk to win (+11000 via FanDuel)
- Daniel Berger to win (+12000 via FanDuel)
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WM Phoenix Open long-shot picks
Keith Mitchell to win 100-1
Best odds: +10000 via FanDuel
FanDuel WM Phoenix Open boost
FanDuel is giving all U.S. users one 5% boost to use on any WM Phoenix Open bet. This would bring Mitchell's odds to win from +10000 to +12500.
Mitchell has played this event each of the past five years with a top showing of T-10 in 2022. He has been excellent off the tee at TPC Scottsdale but his putter betrayed him in last year's T-42 finish.
"Cashmere" Keith has struggled with consistency for much of his PGA Tour career, but he tied for ninth in The American Express before a missed cut in the Farmers Insurance Open and last week's T-54 finish at Pebble Beach. Mitchell has gained strokes in all key statistics across his last eight measured rounds, including 0.90 strokes gained: off-the-tee which ranks fifth in this field.
Mitchell's odds are as low as +8000 elsewhere, so be sure to grab this outlier +10000 ticket from FanDuel. A $10 bet would return a profit of $1,000 with a win for Mitchell.
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Adam Schenk to win 110-1
Best odds: +11000 via FanDuel
Schenk played some of the best golf of his career last summer and finished with two runners-up and five other top-10 finishes for the 2023 schedule. That stretch saw him rise as high as No. 42 in the OWGR but he enters this week at No. 53 following a T-25 in the Farmers Insurance Open and a T-47 in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
But the return to Bermuda greens during this one-week hiatus of the West Coast swing could bring a return to form and provide the boost his well-rounded game needs to find true success. Schenk is gaining strokes in all key areas across his last 11 measured rounds, and he ranked 13th on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from 150-175 yards last season.
The 32-year-old played this event each of the last five years. It was last February's T-23 finish that snapped a stretch of three straight missed cuts at TPC Scottsdale.
His odds to win are as low as +9000 at bet365, so be sure to get this market-best +11000 ticket at FanDuel.
Daniel Berger to win 120-1
Best odds: +12000 via FanDuel
Once ranked as high as 12th in the OWGR, Berger enters this week at No. 644 in the world. After injuries derailed his last season and a half on the PGA Tour, Berger returned to play with a T-39 finish in The American Express before missing the cut in the Farmers Insurance Open.
In his limited action, Berger has been strong with his irons and has shown flashes of his old putting stroke. He'll be among the most motivated of the big names in this field, as he tries to improve his world ranking and secure PGA Tour status before his major medical extension expires.
The 30-year-old is always a fan favorite and while he missed the cut in three of his last four appearances in this event, he still has three top-10 finishes in eight attempts at conquering TPC Scottsdale since 2015. Berger has four career PGA Tour wins with his last coming in 2021 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and that followed a missed cut in the Phoenix Open.
We're counting on Berger being fully healthy and returning to his form of old. If that happens, this +12000 ticket in a field that's already seen two of the top three pre-tournament favorites withdraw holds plenty of value.
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