Why First-Round Leader is the Best Way to Bet Scottie Scheffer in The American Express

Scottie Scheffler is the outright betting favorite to win his first PGA Tour event of the year, but bettors should be looking to The American Express first-round leader market for better value on the No. 1 player in golf.

📊 American Express first-round leader odds

Here are The American Express first-round leader odds via DraftKings, one of our best golf betting sites.

Since this is a three-course rotation for Rounds 1-3 of The American Express, the first-round leader market is broken down by course. Bets will pay out based on who shot the lowest score on that course in Round 1.

Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.

💰 How I'm betting Scottie Scheffler this week: First-round leader (+650)

Scottie Scheffler to be the first-round leader of The American Express offers the best value on this week's favorite. The No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) is +300 by The American Express odds in the outright betting market, but we can get +650 odds for him to be the first-round leader at La Quinta Country Club on Thursday.

Scheffler will tee off Thursday at 12:14 p.m. ET, off the first tee of La Quinta CC. That's historically the course with the lowest scoring average of the three-course rotation at PGA West. Scheffler led the PGA Tour with a 67.45 Round 1 scoring average last year.

Playing on La Quinta CC gives Scheffler an advantage over two-thirds of the field he doesn't need. This tournament may be over on Thursday.

🔥 More first-round leader picks

Be sure to see all of our golf picks for The American Express:

• Nick Taylor, La Quinta: +3500 - Last week's first-round leader in The Sony Open, as recommended by SBR
• Haotong Lee, La Quinta: +4000 - First-round 66 last week, just four back of the 18-hole lead; tees off at 11:52 a.m. ET Thursday
• Karl Vilips, La Quinta: +6000 - Rested off not playing last week

⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

Thursday's weather at PGA West (La Quinta, Calif.):