🎯 Valero Texas Open Long Shots & Sleeper Picks: 3 Outright Bets Longer Than +4500
After several of the top golfers in the world withdrew from the 2026 Valero Texas Open field, the door is wide open for a sleeper to make a run. Ludvig Aberg (+1500) is the current betting favorite, but with the “big names” sidelined, we’re hunting for major value in the long-shot market.
My Texas Valero Open long shots and sleeper picks look for longer odds to win this event, with many of the best golfers not in action this weekend at TPC San Antonio. The Valero Texas Open begins Thursday, April 2, and runs through Sunday, April 5. Don’t miss our featured bet, which could turn $10 into $550 by Sunday night.
🎯 Valero Texas Open long-shot picks
Here are our best long-shot golf picks for Valero Texas Open based on the odds from our best golf betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.
| Pick | Best odds | Confidence | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Penge | +5500 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | .1 units to win 5.5 |
| Nick Taylor | +5000 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐ | .1 units to win 5 |
| Tony Finau | +6000 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ | .1 units to win 6 |
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💰 Best Valero Texas Open sleeper bet
Marco Penge (+5500)
Marco Penge has a strong chance to win the 2026 Valero Texas Open odds, especially given his excellent form over the last month. He’s been striking the ball with confidence, gaining strokes off the tee and with his irons, which is crucial at TPC San Antonio.
Penge’s aggressive style allows him to attack scoring opportunities while still maintaining control. With many top players absent from the field, this sets up perfectly for a breakout performance. If he stays consistent on the greens, he has the tools to outplay the field and capture his first PGA Tour victory.
⛳️ Additional Valero Texas Open long shot bet: Marco Penge First Round Leader (+4500)
Marco Penge is a prime candidate to be the first-round leader at the Valero Texas Open because he has become one of the PGA Tour’s most dangerous hot starters. Just last week in Houston, he opened with a blistering, bogey-free 66 to sit near the top of the leaderboard, following a trend of aggressive early-round play seen during his T16 finish at the Genesis Invitational (where he also opened with 66). As the Tour leader in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Penge’s elite driving allows him to dismantle TPC San Antonio’s daunting length before the Texas winds typically intensify. His ability to overpower the course early, combined with recent high-end form - including a T4 at the Valspar - makes him the ideal pick to set the pace on Thursday.
🐎 Valero Texas Open dark horse picks
Nick Taylor (+5000)
Nick Taylor enters the 2026 Valero Texas Open as a premier threat to claim his sixth PGA Tour victory. His candidacy is built on an elite statistical profile that aligns perfectly with the demands of TPC San Antonio. Taylor has established himself as a top-30 ball-striker, ranking high in both driving accuracy and Strokes Gained: Approach.
The Oaks Course is notorious for penalizing erratic drivers, but Taylor’s ability to find fairways at a 66% clip provides a massive tactical advantage. Furthermore, his recent form shows a sharp short game; he ranked third in the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This "grinder" mentality is essential for navigating the volatile Texas winds and multi-tiered greens. With his proven ability to win in high-pressure playoffs and a T15 finish in a prior San Antonio appearance, Taylor possesses the precision and poise to dominate the field.
⛳️ Additional Valero Texas Open long shot bet: Nick Taylor top Canadian (+200)
Nick Taylor is positioned to be the Top Canadian at the Valero Texas Open because he possesses the elite short game and mental toughness required to handle TPC San Antonio’s demanding layout. Currently ranking 6th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, Taylor’s ability to scramble is a massive advantage on a course where swirling winds often lead to missed greens.While he’s coming off a quiet stretch, Taylor has been a model of consistency in 2026, making nearly every cut and flashing top-tier form with a T13 at the Sony Open. Historically, he has shown he can compete here, having finished T15 in a previous appearance. Compared to his countrymen, Taylor’s superior approach play (48th in SG: Approach) and veteran poise make him the safest and most logical bet to lead the Canadian contingent this week
Tony Finau (+6000)
Tony Finau is primed to capture the 2026 Valero Texas Open, leveraging a skill set that thrives on the unique challenges of TPC San Antonio. While his season has been a "puzzle," the pieces are falling into place; he enters the week ranking 23rd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (0.312). This elite short-game proficiency is vital for the Oaks Course, where green-in-regulation percentages are historically low and creative scrambling is mandatory.
Finau also brings a "Texas edge," ranking eighth in the field for strokes gained per round on Lone Star State courses. His recent performance at the Houston Open showed a necessary uptick in driving accuracy, finding positive numbers off the tee for the first time in six starts. Combined with a T3 historical finish here and the high-stakes motivation of securing a final Masters berth, Finau has the power and precision to finally summit the leaderboard.
⛳️ Additional Valero Texas Open long shot bet: Tony Finau top North American (+3000)
Tony Finau is the premier choice to finish as the Top American at the Valero Texas Open because he is finally "putting the pieces together" at the perfect time. Coming off a consistent stretch that includes a T18 at the Valspar and a solid T39 in Houston, Finau’s ball-striking remains elite. His game is ideally suited for TPC San Antonio’s "Oaks Course," where his massive 304-yard driving average allows him to bypass the heavy brush that penalizes shorter hitters.With several top-ranked Americans resting before the Masters, Finau’s experience is a major edge. He currently ranks 23rd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, a vital stat for navigating the swirling Texas winds. His ability to combine power with a sharp short game makes him the most reliable American threat in the field this week.
💵 My betting record for golf picks
All golf picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 7.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-7 | -1.1 units ❌ | 54.55% ❌ |
| Long shots (+4500 or higher) | 0-6 | -0.6 units ❌ | 0% ❌ |
💡 How I'm handicapping the Valero Texas Open
I’m zeroing in on three long shots for the Valero Texas Open, as this week’s field offers a rare window for high-value returns. With heavyweights like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy sidelined, the tournament bracket is wide open, removing the most dominant hurdles at the top of the leaderboard.
This absence clears a realistic path for under-the-radar contenders to make a move. Rather than chasing slim margins on the favorites, I’m diversifying my exposure across three high-upside players whose current form and course history align perfectly with TPC San Antonio. In an event this volatile, backing long shots is the smartest way to maximize potential payouts while maintaining multiple paths to a winning ticket.
💰 Valero Texas Open betting history
Here are the recent winners of the Valero Texas Open, along with their 72-hole score and pre-tournament odds:
| 🗓️ Year | 🏆 Winner | 🪧 Score to par | 📊 Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Brian Harman | -9 | +9000 |
| 2024 | Akshay Bhatia | -20 (playoff) | +5000 |
| 2023 | Corey Conners | -15 | +2500 |
| 2022 | J.J. Spaun | -13 | +15000 |
| 2021 | Jordan Spieth | -18 | +1200 |
| 2020 | Cancelled | ||
| 2019 | Corey Conners | -20 | Field (+900) |
| 2018 | Andrew Landry | -17 | Field (+550) |
| 2017 | Kevin Chappell | -12 | +2500 |
| 2016 | Charley Hoffman | -12 | +2500 |
Historical odds via GolfOdds.com.
⛳ Valero Texas Open tournament info 2026
- Where: Oaks Course (San Antonio, TX)
- When: Thursday, April 2 - Sunday, April 5
- Field: 132
- Favorite: Ludvig Aberg (+1500 via FanDuel)
- Defending champion: Brian Harman
- Purse: $9.8 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
📊 Valero Texas Open full-field odds
Here are the odds to win for everyone in the Valero Texas Open field:
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