Tour Championship Picks, Odds & Favorites: Value Comes Without Starting Strokes
For the second year in a row, Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite for the Tour Championship by the odds from our best golf betting sites as we make our top picks. He'll hope for a better result than his co-runner-up finish in 2022.
A T-2 finish in the BMW Championship propelled World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler to first in the season-long FedEx Cup standings, thus making him the betting favorite by the odds to win the 2023 Tour Championship. Scheffler will begin the Tour Championship at 10-under par and with a two-stroke lead over Viktor Hovland, who won the BMW Championship at minus-17 with the help of a final-round course record of 61.
Scheffler won twice this PGA Tour season but not since The Players Championship in mid-March. Still, there's little argument he has been the best player in golf this year and remains first in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Heading into the Tour Championship, he has taken over from Jon Rahm as the betting favorite by the FedEx Cup odds.
Here are our best Tour Championship picks for East Lake Golf Club near Atlanta, GA (odds via our best sports betting apps).
Tour Championship odds
Odds last updated Thursday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Odds are with/without FedEx Cup starting strokes.
| Name | Starting strokes | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 10 under | +130/500 | +130/+650 | +140/+550 | +130 | +137 |
| Rory McIlroy | 7 under | +320/+450 | +330 /+500 | +350/+550 | +330 | +350 |
| Viktor Hovland | 8 under | +500/+1000 | +500/+1100 | +450/+1000 | +450 | +450 |
| Jon Rahm | 6 under | +850/+800 | +900/+1000 | +800/+1100 | +850 | +850 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 4 under | +1600/+1200 | +2000/+1000 | +2000/+1100 | +2000 | +1800 |
| Max Homa | 4 under | +2800/+1400 | +3500/+1700 | +2800 /+1400 | +3500 | +3300 |
| Xander Schauffele | 3 under | +2800/+900 | +3500/+1100 | +2800/+1100 | +2200 | +2800 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 4 under | +4500/+3500 | +6000/+3000 | +4000/+2800 | +5000 | +4500 |
| Lucas Glover | 5 under | +4000/+5500 | +5500/+3400 | +4000/+4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Brian Harman | 4 under | +5000/+4000 | +7000/+3700 | +5000/+3300 | +5000 | +4500 |
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Tour Championship picks
Scottie Scheffler to lead after first round (-150 via BetMGM, with starting strokes)
One of the best aspects of golf betting is the wide availability of plus-money odds due to the size of the fields and the volatility of the sport. However, we need to adjust with a condensed 30-man field. So let's pounce on this mispriced -150 offering from BetMGM for Scheffler to hold the 18-hole lead.
Surprisingly, none of our best sportsbooks are offering a low 18-hole score market that would negate Scheffler's two-stroke advantage on Thursday morning. DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 are posting Scheffler's odds at -175, with FanDuel offering the market low of -195. This -150 price is way out of line and gives bettors an excellent profit opportunity.
Scheffler began the 2022 Tour Championship with a two-stroke lead and was one back of the opening 18-hole pace that Joaquin Niemann and Matt Fitzpatrick set at East Lake Golf Club. He also holds nearly a full-stroke advantage in average PGA Tour Round 1 scoring in 2023.
What we're hoping for with this pick is that Scheffler's woeful putter won't cost him two-plus strokes on Day 1 of the Tour Championship. When the greens of East Lake are playing at the softest and easiest form possible, we'll be able to rely on the field-best approach game and the ball-striking of the No. 1 player in the world.
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Tom Kim to win without starting strokes (+4000 via DraftKings)
Get this market-best price from DraftKings quickly. FanDuel and BetMGM are the only other two of our best sports betting sites offering this low 72-hole score market as of Tuesday morning and they have Kim's odds at +2900 and +2800, respectively. That's much closer to in line with where I think Kim should be priced this week.
The two-time PGA Tour champ struggled for much of 2023 while battling various injuries. He has since racked up four top-10 finishes in his last seven events, including the U.S. Open, Genesis Scottish Open, British Open, and last week's BMW Championship, and begins the Tour Championship eight strokes back of Scheffler while 16th in the FedEx Cup standings. That play in strong fields is what we want to target in the 30-man Tour Championship.
While Kim's making his first appearance at East Lake Golf Club, he's an excellent course fit. The 21-year-old star ranked third in the 50-man field last week in driving accuracy and averaged 0.92 strokes gained: putting per round. He also ranks well in this field in birdie-or-better percentage from this week's key distance of 125-150 yards, and he's among the field leaders in SG: approach across his last 24 measured rounds.
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Rush out to get this +4000 ticket as I expect DraftKings to lower its odds closer to those offered by FanDuel and BetMGM by Thursday morning.
Tour Championship field notes
Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, and Sepp Straka crept into the 30-man field for the Tour Championship with respective finishes of T-34, T-34, and T-37 in the BMW Championship. They're three of the five golfers—with Sam Burns and Emiliano Grillo—who'll begin the Tour Championship at even par.
Scheffler will start Thursday's first round from the pole position at minus-10 with a two-stroke lead over Hovland (minus-8). Reigning FedEx Cup champ Rory McIlroy will begin his defense at 7-under par after beginning six strokes back of Scheffler at minus-4 last year.
Rahm opens the final event of the season at minus-6 and Lucas Glover begins at 5-under. Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, and Matt Fitzpatrick start at 4-under. Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, and Xander Schauffele open at minus-3. Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, and Si Woo Kim begin their week at minus-2. Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, and Jason Day are nine strokes back of Scheffler at minus-1.
Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama headline the notable absences from the Tour Championship field after failing to qualify for the top 30 in the season-long points race.
East Lake Golf Club course info
- Par: 70
- Length: 7,346 yards
- Greens: Bermuda
- Architect: Tom Bendelow, Donald Ross, Rees Jones
East Lake Golf Club demands accuracy off the tee. Bunkers, trees, and water pose hazards throughout the course. Still, roughly half the holes play below par on average, including six par 4s.
This venue has hosted the Tour Championship each year since 2004. The winning score, including starting strokes, each of the past three years was minus-21. Since the inception of the starting strokes format in 2019, Dustin Johnson (2020) and Patrick Cantlay (2021) opened as the leader at minus-10. McIlroy's two victories in this format in 2019 and 2022 started at minus-5 and minus-4, respectively.
Tour Championship tournament info
- Where: East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, GA
- When: Thursday, Aug. 24 - Sunday, Aug. 27
- Field: 30
- 2022 champion: Rory McIlroy (21 under)
The winner of the Tour Championship (with starting strokes) will earn a bonus of $18 million and a five-year PGA Tour exemption.
Golf betting odds pages
Here are our best golf betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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