⛳ The Players Championship First-Round Leader Predictions: TPC Sawgrass Round 1 Picks
Thursday marks an off day for the World Baseball Classic, so how will we fill the void of betting during the workday? The 2026 Players Championship tees off at 7:40 a.m. ET at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
My Players Championship first-round leader predictions target three golfers with odds between +3500 and +6300. I'm favoring those who played well last week at Bay Hill, while also leaning toward early tee times with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon weather forecast.
Our Dustin Saracini makes his Players Championship picks for the full tournament, and I asked Claude for its best AI predictions.
đ° Players Championship first-round leader predictions
Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the Players Championship.
| đ° Pick | đĄ Best odds | âī¸ Bet size | đ§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg | +3500 via DraftKings | 1u -> 35u | 2.48 SG: approach in Round 4 at Bay Hill (-5) |
| Daniel Berger | +5000 via DraftKings | 0.5u -> 25u | Preferred 7:52 a.m. tee time; last week's Round 1 leader |
| Chris Gotterup | +6300 via DraftKings | 0.5u -> 31.5u | Inflated odds with afternoon tee time |
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âŗ Picks to lead the Players Championship after Round 1
My best bet: Ludvig Aberg (+3500, 1 unit)
Tee time: 8:40 a.m. ET, Tee 10 | Group: Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim
Ludvig Aberg is heating up just in time for the first major of the year, and the window to buy low will close very fast. I'm buying while we can, with the +3500 odds for him to lead after Round 1, and his +2900 odds to win the tournament.
Aberg gained 2.48 strokes on approach in Round 4 last week. That fuelled a final round -5 that propelled him to a T-3 finish. That's all I need to see to believe he's back after struggling for much of the past year since his breakout win in the 2025 Genesis Invitational.
💰️ Players Championship odds at Kalshi
Not in a legal sports betting state? I broke down the Players Championship odds at prediction market Kalshi.
đ¯ More first-round leader predictions
Daniel Berger (+5000, 0.5 units)
Tee time: 7:52 a.m. ET, Tee 10 | Group: Max Homa, Michael Thorbjornsen
This one requires a bit of a leap of faith after Daniel Berger's playoff loss last week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.
Fortunately for us bettors, the +5000 first-round leader odds justify that leap. Berger held last week's 18-hole lead with an opening-round 63 (-9). He led the tournament field with 1.91 SG: approach per round, and his putter was sharp (0.78 SG: putting).
I wouldn't be interested if these odds weren't this high, but that's enough to make me fear missing out on last week's hottest starter, as he'll be in the second group off the 10th tee.
💡 SBR Edge
Like Aberg, I also like that Berger will be starting on the back nine on Thursday. This gets him through the toughest half of the course early, and allows both golfers to get hot on their inbound nine.
Chris Gotterup (+6300, 0.5 units)
Tee time: 1:54 p.m. ET, Tee 1 | Group: Justin Rose, Min Woo Lee
Chris Gotterup is my only pick from the afternoon wave at this point, but I could add picks from this group Thursday morning. I just can't resist the +6300 odds for the PGA Tour's leader in Round 1 scoring average (66.33), regardless of his tee time. I also like that he's in a "good vibes" group with Justin Rose and Min Woo Lee in Rounds 1 and 2.
The PGA Tour's only two-time winner in 2026 tied for 18th last week without anywhere close to his best golf game. Improved putting (0.76 strokes gained) in Round 4 offers some hope from what was an otherwise miserable +4 round.
He's +4700 at DraftKings to win this tournament, so we're getting lengthened odds in this market, thanks largely to his later tee time. He's a strong overall course fit, particularly due to his lack of a pull off the tee. Much of the trouble at TPC Sawgrass lies to the left of the fairway.
I'm also backing Gotterup for a top-20 finish with my Players Championship power rankings.
⏰️ When are first-round leader bets paid out?
The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.
There's a chance of a Friday finish to Round 1 this week, with thunderstorms expected to roll in Ponte Vedra Beach Thursday afternoon.
đ Players Championship first-round leader history
Here are the past first-round leaders of the Players Championship, along with the tournament winner and their Round 1 scores:
| Year | First-round leader (score, finish) | Tournament winner (first-round score) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | J.J. Spaun (-6, 2) | Rory McIlroy (-5) |
| 2024 | X. Schauffele, W. Clark, R. McIlroy (-7, T-2, T-2, T-19) | Scottie Scheffler (-5) |
| 2023 | Chad Ramey (-8, T-27) | Scottie Scheffler (-4) |
| 2022 | T. Fleetwood, T. Hoge (-6, T-22, T-33) | Cameron Smith (-3) |
| 2021 | Sergio Garcia (-7, T-9) | Justin Thomas (-1) |
| 2020 | Canceled | Canceled |
| 2019 | Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley (-7, T-5, T-16) | Rory McIlroy (-5) |
| 2018 | W. Simpson, C. Hadley, D. Johnson, A. Noren, M. Kuchar, P. Cantlay (-6, 1 - T-23) | Webb Simpson (-6) |
| 2017 | Mackenzie Hughes, William McGirt (-5, T-16, T-22) | Si Woo Kim (-3) |
| 2016 | Jason Day (-9, 1) | Jason Day (-9) |
Only once in the past 10 years has the winner of The Players Championship been more than 4 strokes off the first-round lead. Justin Thomas overcame a 6-stroke deficit after 18 holes to win in 2021. Two of the past 10 Players champions held at least a share of the first-round lead and went on to win.
This date helps us narrow our focus when looking for this year's first-round leader at TPC Sawgrass. We can concentrate closer to the top of the oddsboard in both the first-round leader and tournament winner markets, as the first-round leader here is generally someone who could win the tournament.
đŠī¸ Thursday's weather at TPC Sawgrass
Weather from Accuweather for TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., on Thursday, March 12:
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| đĄī¸ Temp. | 79 degrees in the morning, high of 78 in the afternoon |
| đ¨ Wind | 16 mph with gusts up to 29 mph |
| đ§ī¸ Precipitation | Mostly cloudy with 83% cloud cover; 88% precipitation |
| âī¸ Humidity | 74% humidity |
There isn't a major difference in the weather between the morning and afternoon waves on Thursday, other than the chance of thunderstorms rolling in late in the afternoon. This could cause a disruption of play and even a potential Friday morning finish to Round 1 with the expanded 123-man field.
I'm leaning to the morning tee times with my first-round leader predictions, but I'll get some more action on the afternoon wave if the forecast holds up on Thursday morning.
đ How I bet on first-round leaders
Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market. Though it's a highly volatile betting market, it's one of my favorites.
We see longer odds on the tournament favorites and shorter odds for the tournament long shots. This significantly grows the pool of players with a genuine chance to top the leaderboard after Round 1.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weatherto be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.
đ Players Championship first-round leader odds
Here are the Players Championship first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.
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