🎯 Players Championship Long Shots & Sleeper Picks: 3 Outright Bets Longer Than +6500

As The Players Championship returns to TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., from Thursday through Sunday, the event sets the stage for another thrilling week of golf, with none other than Scottie Scheffler entering as the pre-tournament favorite.

Last year, Rory McIlroy took home the trophy with a clutch performance in a playoff to win his second Players Championship. As we dive into this year’s Players Championship long shots and sleeper picks, we're looking for longer odds to win. A $10 wager on our best bet pays out $900.

Get on these picks early before the Players Championship odds tighten up.

🎯 Players Championship long-shot picks

Here are our best long-shot golf picks for THE PLAYERS Championship based on the odds from our best golf betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

💰 Best Players Championship sleeper bet

Corey Conners (+9000)

Corey Conners enters this week’s The Players Championship as a strong value play with the type of steady ball-striking that thrives at TPC Sawgrass. Conners finished sixth in this event last year, proving he can handle the course’s demanding layout and pressure-packed closing stretch.

His elite iron play consistently puts him in scoring position, which is critical on a course that punishes mistakes. With many bettors focusing on the bigger names near the top of the board, Conners’ odds remain surprisingly long. At that price, the value is simply too large not to take a shot on him this week.

 🐎 Players Championship dark horse picks

Nicolai Hojgaard (+7000)

Nicolai Hojgaard enters the The Players Championship as one of the most dangerous young players in the field and has the game to contend at TPC Sawgrass. The Dane possesses elite power off the tee, allowing him to attack scoring holes while still having the length to recover from mistakes. More importantly, Hojgaard’s iron play has taken a major step forward over the past year, giving him the precision needed on a course that punishes errant approaches.

He has also shown he can handle elite competition, winning and contending in strong fields on the European stage before transitioning to bigger PGA Tour events. With confidence growing and his aggressive style suited for making birdies in bunches, Hojgaard has the upside to surge up the leaderboard. If his putter cooperates, he has all the tools needed to capture a signature victory this weekend.

Aaron Rai (+10500)

Aaron Rai enters the week as an intriguing contender to win the The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Rai quietly finished T-14 in this event last year, proving he can navigate one of the most demanding courses on the PGA Tour. His game is built on accuracy and consistency, two traits that are critical at Sawgrass where precision off the tee and strong iron play often separate contenders from the rest of the field.

Rai is among the most accurate drivers on tour and excels at hitting fairways and greens, limiting the big mistakes that can derail rounds at this venue. He also ranks highly in approach play, consistently giving himself birdie opportunities. If the putter heats up for a few rounds, Rai has the steady ball-striking and patience needed to climb the leaderboard and ultimately contend for the biggest win of his career.

💡 How I'm handicapping The Players Championship

Scottie Scheffler does not appear to be on the same dominant run this year as he was during last season, which opens the door for several other contenders to make a serious push at the title. While Scheffler still enters all events he plays as the outright betting favorite, the gap between him and the rest of the field has narrowed compared to last year’s stretch of elite performances.

Because of that, we’re looking toward a few strong value plays from the Players Championship odds. Targeting golfers at longer odds gives us a chance to capitalize on a big plus-money ticket if one of those contenders rises to the occasion.

With scoring conditions capable of creating dramatic swings on the leaderboard, volatility becomes a major factor and often turns this event into a wide-open race. One hot stretch or one costly mistake can quickly shift momentum, which naturally opens the door for sleepers to make a serious weekend charge. Focusing solely on the shortest prices on the board isn’t always the most profitable approach.

Instead, I’m leaning into that unpredictability and targeting players with legitimate upside - golfers who possess strong ball-striking profiles, can consistently gain strokes tee-to-green, and have the potential to catch fire with the putter. When those elements come together, especially at longer odds, the value becomes extremely appealing and creates opportunities to cash a big plus-money ticket.

📜 The Players Championship betting history

Here are the recent outright winners of the THE PLAYERS Championship and their betting odds prior to Round 1:

Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com.

⛳ The Players Championship tournament info 2026

• Where: Thursday, March 12 - Sunday, March 15
• When: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.)
• Field: 122
• Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+350 via BetRivers)
• Defending champion: Rory McIlroy
• Purse: $25 million
• FedEx Cup points: 750

📊 THE PLAYERS Championship full-field odds

Here are the odds to win for everyone in the THE PLAYERS Championship field: