How to Bet Brooks Koepka's PGA Tour Return: Farmers Insurance Open Predictions
Welcome back, Brooks.
Koepka returns to the PGA Tour after four years with LIV, sporting +6000 betting odds to win the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego. While he's considered an extreme long shot, are there other ways to cash in on "Big Game Brooks"? Let's dive into how to bet Brooks Koepka in his first start back on Tour.
📊 Brooks Koepka betting odds for Farmers Insurance Open
| Market | Odds (Approx.) | Implied probability | Betting context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outright Winner | +5500 to +6600 | 1.5% to 1.8% | Long shot status. |
| Top 10 finish | +390 to +500 | 16.7% to 20.4% | A "sharp" favorite for those who expect him to grind out a result. |
| Top 20 finish | +220 | 31.2% | High-value bet if you believe his ball-striking remains elite despite. |
| To make the cut | -150 | 60.0% | Relatively "nervous" odds, reflecting his poor history with the North/South rotation. |
Looking at the board, the only two bets worth taking are your classic top-10 finish or top-20 finish. You're extracting value here, but also aren't diving too deep into the long shots - spots where you might as well just burn your money instead of betting it while he shakes off his rust in his return to the PGA Tour.
Following his exit from LIV Golf, he enters the week at No. 255 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).
💰 Best bet for Brooks Koepka at Torrey Pines
Koepka hasn't had the best history at Torrey Pines. The five-time major champion missed the cut in his last three appearances, but he did record a fourth-place finish in 2021 when the South Course hosted the U.S. Open. Of course, the South Course will host three of four rounds played this week, so there is some momentum here to back Koepka for a top-10 or top-20 finish, as I'm doing in my Farmers Insurance outright picks.
Torrey Pines is an incredibly long course - seven of the par 4s on the South Course measure over 450 yards, and many of the approach shots on this course will come from 200 yards or greater - which should play well into Koepka's game if his ball-striking remains elite.
Koepka's Driving Distance was ranked 17th on tour the last time he played a full season. However, if his accuracy isn't there off the tee, he'll be battling the thick roughs at Torrey Pines all week long. There's a middle ground to be found here, and Koepka to finish either top 10 (+500) or top 20 (+220) are undoubtedly the best bets to make this week.
Our Esten McLaren is keeping a close eye on him throughout the year with his Brooks Koepka major odds and 2026 schedule.
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