Farmers Insurance Open Power Rankings: Can Anyone Stop Jon Rahm?

While the past three PGA Tour events have all been birdie competitions, that all changes this week with the Farmers Insurance Open at the demanding Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, CA. Here are our weekly power rankings that highlight which golfers to target in pools based on the odds from our top sportsbooks.

Above all else, it’s imperative to remember the Farmers is a rare event beginning on Wednesday and finishing Saturday to avoid going head-to-head with the NFL Conference Championships on Sunday. Don’t be tardy with those picks and bets, folks.

This year’s field features five of the top 10 golfers from the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), including No. 3 Jon Rahm who took down The American Express last week and also won the Sentry Tournament of Champions earlier this month.

Check out our Farmers Insurance Open expert picks and our Farmers Insurance Open preview.

Rahm is the consensus betting favorite, and he’s also had a storied history at Torrey Pines. He won the 2021 U.S. Open at the track, and his first-career victory was also at the 2017 Farmers.

The competition will be fierce in San Diego with Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas,  and Collin Morikawa rounding out an impressive collection of players atop the odds lists.

Farmers Insurance Open Odds

What to Know for the Farmers Insurance Open

Three of the four rounds are played at Torrey’s South Course, which is considerably more challenging than the North Course. Each player will play the North Course once on either Wednesday or Thursday, and it’s proven important to capitalize on the easier layout.

Weather and length are the largest defenses of the South Course, and the forecast isn’t calling for rain or prohibitive winds during this week’s event. Additionally, the track’s narrow fairways haven't always catered to bombers despite the course stretching a demanding 7,765 yards. Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, and Brendt Snedeker (twice) have all won here, and distance off the tee isn’t a strength of any of theirs. 

Obviously, it shouldn’t be ignored entirely, either.

Strong long-iron play, a solid short game and avoiding squares on the card have been keys to the success of prior winners. Additionally, capitalizing on the Par 5s was paramount last season, as eight of the top-10 finishers had a birdie or better on at least eight of the 16 Par 5s.

I’m also prioritizing bogey avoidance, strokes gained: around-the-green, SG: putting and in particular SG: tee-to-green this week. In last year’s event, Taylor Montgomery, Billy Horschel, and Justin Thomas were the only players who finished inside the top-20 not to gain strokes tee-to-green.

Farmers Insurance Open Power Rankings

10. Max Homa

The California native has only played the weekend in two of seven trips to Torrey, including missing the cut at the 2021 U.S. Open. For whatever reason, this track just doesn’t appear to fit his game. Since missing the cut last year, he’s played the weekend in 22 of 23 events while racking up a pair of wins and another five top-5 finishes. Homa also checks out statistically, but the lack of prior success on the South Course makes me nervous.

9. Taylor Montgomery

I’m having a difficult time figuring Montgomery out this week because his SG: approach and driving accuracy are major statistical weaknesses. In fact, I’m surprised he’s been able to be as successful as he has been with ranks of 137th in greens-in-regulation percentage and 157th in SG: approach. Ranking seventh in SG: putting, which includes the second-best true mark in this field across his passed 29 measured rounds certainly helps. However, if the putter cools before his iron play improves, he’s going to have difficulty contending on Sundays.

8. Jason Day

Day has a pair of victories at this event and carded a third-place result last year. The 35-year-old Aussie is also 14th in bogey-avoidance percentage this season, and he ranks sixth in true SG: approach and 13th in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 28 measured rounds. Day’s last win was all the way back in the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship, so I’m viewing him as more of a high-floor than high-ceiling target.

Check out our analysis of the best odds for The Players Championship and the PGA Championship 2023 odds.

7. Sungjae Im

Taking the weekend off at the Sony Open in Hawaii took a toll on Im, as a poor two final rounds dropped him all the way down to a T-18 finish at The American Express. He paced the tour in bogey-avoidance percentage last season, and he had his best finish at the 2022 Farmers with a sixth-place result. Statistical correction in the SG metrics remains ahead of Im, and yet he still ranks seventh in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 36 measured rounds.

6. Justin Thomas

This will be just the fourth time Thomas has teed it up at the Farmers, and he isn’t in particularly strong form. It’s as if there’s been a forcefield around the cup, as he ranks 110th in true SG: putting in this field across his past 20 rounds. However, he’s among the betting favorites for a reason, and he’s birdied 20 of 28 Par 5s this season after finishing fifth in Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage last year. Add ranking third in SG: tee-to-green a year ago, and statistical correction on the greens might be all it takes for JT at Torrey.

5. Collin Morikawa

Morikawa’s meltdown in the final round of the Sentry was a stinger, and this will only be his second trip to play the Farmers. He did finish fourth at the 2021 U.S. Open here, though. Additionally, he ranks first in true SG: approach and second in SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 20 measured rounds. If he continues to show off elite ball-striking he’s going to be near the top of a lot of Sunday leaderboards the next few months.

Check out our look at the best odds for the Masters and the WM Phoenix Open odds.

4. Xander Schauffele

Not only is this a home track for the San Diego native, Schauffele checks a lot of boxes and is coming off a T-3 showing at The American Express. He finished fourth in bogey avoidance percentage and 15th in Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage last year, and his numbers are even better to start this season. Additionally, he checks out fourth in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 15 measured rounds. Just note, he’s missed the cut at the Farmers in four of seven visits, and his second-place finish in 2021 is also his only top-20 result.

3. Tony Finau

Despite never truly getting it going last week, Finau still carded a T-16 result to continue to show off incredible consistency. In particular, he’s been nearly automatic on the greens with the fifth-best true SG: putting in this field across his past 30 rounds. Even better, the five-time PGA Tour winner paces the field in true SG: tee-to-green while also checking the bogey avoidance and Par 5 scoring boxes. Finau missed the cut here last season for the first time in eight trips, but he also has four top-10 finishes and another three top-25 results.

2. Jon Rahm

The Spaniard is on a heater, and he only made two bogeys last week at The American Express. As noted, he’s also had oodles of success at Torrey and appears to be kick-starting a statement season. Rahm has capitalized on the Par 5s this year, as his birdie-or-better percentage is 18.18% higher than last season’s 50% mark. He’s also sporting ranks of third in true SG: tee-to-green, fourth in true SG: putting and 10th in true SG: around-the-green in this field through his past 33 measured rounds. While his golf betting odds are prohibitive, poolies might also be fading him at their own risk at this stage of the game.

1. Will Zalatoris

Zalatoris nearly won the 2022 Farmers, and he has the statistical profile to take another healthy run at winning it again this year. His ball-striking statistics are elite. He finished first in SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green on tour last year, and he respectively ranks fourth and sixth in this field in the two true SG metrics across his past 20 measured rounds. Zalatoris is also the early-season leader in both bogey-avoidance and Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage.

Farmers Insurance Open power rankings made 1/23/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.

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