NFL Division Winners: Best Worst to First Candidates
Our patience for finding answers and positive results might be getting shorter by the day. Which is great in so many ways, with the most random question or need for cooking instructions solved through a quick reach into your pocket.
It can be less convenient as an NFL fan. A sport with a long offseason filled with possible reasons for optimism through free agency and the draft can fuel hopes that are dashed quickly during the fall.
But although there are a few juggernaut franchises that have emerged, there's still plenty of parity around the NFL. And that leads to paths for rapid turnarounds.
Which is why there are so many fast rises. Let's look at a few possible worst-to-first candidates among the potential 2024 NFL division winners, and see how bettors can capitalize.
Notable worst-to-first rises
There wasn't a worst-to-first leap from 2022 to 2023. But we don't need to look far beyond that to find a prominent recent example, with the Jacksonville Jaguars moving from a putrid 3-14 in 2021 to a division-leading 9-8.
Sure, that came in part due to the clown car that is the AFC South. But a five-win increase is an accomplishment nonetheless, and it unsurprisingly came when Trevor Lawrence was in his second season and began to feel comfortable.
That's one of the most common signifiers that such a bounding jump up the division standings could be coming. There's frequently either a new head coach ready to spark the team, or a young passer is now finding his rhythm.
We saw the latter at play with the two most famous examples amid the rises of the 1999 St. Louis Rams and The Greatest Show on Turf, and the 2001 New England Patriots when Tom Brady first surfaced.
More recently, the 2017 Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles reached that mountaintop with a 13-3 regular-season record after going 7-9 the previous campaign. And the Dak Prescott era in Dallas began with an eruption. The new man under center led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record after they went 4-12 the season prior.
NFL division winners: Top 3 worst-to-first candidates in 2024
Cincinnati Bengals
2023 record: 9-8
| Sportsbook | Bengals to win AFC North odds |
|---|---|
| DraftKings | +140 |
| FanDuel | +165 |
| BetMGM | +165 |
| Caesars | +160 |
| bet365 | +165 |
The Cincinnati Bengals wouldn't be going on the usual worst-to-first ride, or at least not the more common one.
Their fate in 2023 was largely tied to injuries, though there were certainly struggles along the way too. Joe Burrow's season-ending ligament tear in his wrist was the most critical blow. Chase Brown missing four games didn't help matters either.
But the Bengals then showcased their impressive depth to go 4-3 down the stretch without Burrow, ending up 9-8 overall. They finished well above the average amount of wins for a last-place team in a division last season (5.1), which reflects both the Bengals' overall talent and the gauntlet that is the AFC North.
As our own C. Jackson Cowart outlined earlier in the offseason, now the rebirth of Slim Shiesty is upon us with Burrow returning and looking impressive.
Elsewhere, Brown's rookie season was partly sidetracked. But now the promising young running back is well-positioned to soar with Joe Mixon out of the picture. He's not far removed from doing the same at the college level while racking up 1,883 yards from scrimmage during his final season with Illinois.
And forming a formidable backfield tandem with him will be the newly signed Zack Moss. He finally received an extended opportunity with the Indianapolis Colts when Jonathan Taylor was out, and Moss fully capitalized while producing 794 rushing yards, easily besting his previous career high of 481.
In some ways, the Bengals are the most obvious worst-to-first choice simply due to Burrow coming back, as long as we all assume the historically stubborn club resolves Ja'Marr Chase's contract situation. But from another angle, the Bengals are offering appealing value compared to other squads that are among the favorites within a division at our best sports betting sites.
At DraftKings, for example, the Bengals are the AFC North favorites at +140. Currently, four of the other seven division favorites are listed at minus-money through that book, with the Houston Texans only narrowly above the line at +105.
While looking to DraftKings gives us an overview of the division-winner market, there are better prices at the rest of our best sportsbooks for your Bengals worst-to-first wager. Each one is around +160 for Cincinnati to win the AFC North, with three sitting at +165.
Best odds to win AFC North: +165 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 37.74%
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Chicago Bears
2023 record: 7-10
| Sportsbook | Bears to win NFC North odds |
|---|---|
| DraftKings | +275 |
| FanDuel | +340 |
| BetMGM | +340 |
| Caesars | +320 |
| bet365 | +330 |
The presence of Caleb Williams alone would arguably be enough to make the Chicago Bears a force to consider in this category.
The first overall pick in 2024 out of USC is an athletic marvel with a pinpoint arm and the elusiveness to escape whatever doom seems to lurk in the pocket. The latter skill is perhaps his main selling point, and it translated to 996 rushing yards across three collegiate seasons (including his Heisman-winning campaign in 2022), and 27 touchdowns on the ground.
But the Bears' additions for 2024 go far beyond Williams.
A sterling draft also included taking Rome Odunze in the first round, the Washington product who just routinely torched the opposition last season en route to 1,640 yards. He'll be alongside DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, the latter of which came through an offseason trade and can still be a force when healthy.
It's again wise to sprint as far away as possible from DraftKings here, as our other best sports betting apps are posting much more lucrative odds. DraftKings is showing far more faith in the Bears at +275, while FanDuel and BetMGM sit at +340.
Best odds to win NFC North: +340 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 22.73%
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Los Angeles Chargers
2023 record: 5-12
| Sportsbook | Chargers to win AFC West odds |
|---|---|
| DraftKings | +320 |
| FanDuel | +390 |
| BetMGM | +360 |
| Caesars | +360 |
| bet365 | +350 |
The difficulty in getting behind the Los Angeles Chargers here is that they play in the same division as a dream-crusher.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West eight straight times, with three of those campaigns ending in Super Bowl triumphs. However, playing the Chargers twice annually led to some easy Ws for a few of those seasons, and that shouldn't be the case any longer.
Jim Harbaugh is back, and he's ready to go full Football Guy at all times.
Harbaugh is known for shining bright quickly, often before wearing out his welcome. That dates back to Stanford, with the Cardinal going from 4-8 in 2007 to 12-1 in 2010 under his watch. And more notably, Harbaugh led the San Francisco 49ers to a 13-3 division-winning record during his first go-around there after the team was 6-10 the year prior.
There's plenty of weaponry at his disposal, including promising young wideouts Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey. A wonky offensive line will also receive a boost from tackle and fifth-overall pick Joe Alt.
But the key for Harbaugh the quarterback whisperer will be Justin Herbert. He missed the final four games last season due to a broken index finger that required surgery. But Herbert remains highly effective and had thrown for 20 touchdowns with a modest seven interceptions and 3,134 yards over 13 games pre-injury.
It's once again time to scurry away from DraftKings, which is offering the Chargers at +320 while two of our other best live betting sites sit at +360. But FanDuel is far ahead of the field at +390.
Best odds to win AFC West: +390 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 20.41%
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