WM Phoenix Open Odds, Picks, Predictions 2023: Let Scheffler Pad Your Super Bowl Bankroll
After a weather-delayed finish to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, it's finally time for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open. Below, we'll discuss the odds for the star-studded field at the WM Phoenix Open with some picks to target for the win on Super Bowl Sunday.
The WM Phoenix Open is a great way to pad your bankroll before finalizing your Super Bowl 57 picks. This event annually ends shortly before kickoff of The Big Game, and with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles squaring off at State Farm Stadium just outside of Phoenix this year, the hype is greater than ever.
Credit to DraftKings for looking to capitalize on this popularity by posting early futures odds for the 2023 tournament. That's something typically done only for the majors; however, a few of our best sportsbooks have early Players Championship odds posted.
Now, in the week of the tournament, all of our best sportsbooks have full and updated odds for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open. This has helped create a new wave of value picks for the WM Phoenix Open after we targeted four golfers in the futures markets. This is among the best field this event has ever featured, with 22 of the top 25 players from the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) in attendance.
WM Phoenix Open: Best bets
- Scottie Scheffler (+1300 via FanDuel)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2100 via FanDuel)
- Viktor Hovland (+3500 via DraftKings)
WM Phoenix Open odds 2023
|Jon Rahm||+700 🔻||+700||+700 🔻||+600 ❄️||+700 🔻|
|Xander Schauffele||+1400 🔺||+1400||+1400 🔻||+1400 🔺||+1400 🔺|
|Scottie Scheffler||+1200||+1300 🔥||+1200||+1200||+1200|
|Tony Finau||+1600 🔻||+1800||+2000 🔥||+1600 🔻||+1600 🔻|
|Patrick Cantlay||+1800 🔻||+2100 🔥||+2000||+2000 🔺||+1800 🔻|
|Justin Thomas||+2200 🔺||+2100||+2200 ❄️||+1600 🔻||+2200 🔺|
|Collin Morikawa||+1600 🔻||+1600||+1600 🔻||+1400 🔻||+1600 🔻|
|Max Homa||+2500 🔺||+2100 ❄️||+2200||+1800 🔻||+2500 🔺|
|Sungjae Im||+2500 🔺||+2500||+2800 🔥||+2500||+2500 🔺|
|Tom Kim||+2800||+2100 🔻||+2800 🔻||+1500 🔻||+2800|
|Cameron Young||+2800 🔻||+2800 🔻||+2800||+2500 🔻||+2200 🔻|
|Viktor Hovland||+3500 🔺||+3000 ❄️||+3300||+3500||+3300 🔺|
|Jordan Spieth||+5000 🔺||+4000 🔺||+5000||+5500 🔺🔥||+5000 🔺|
|Hideki Matsuyama||+3500||+2900||+3300 🔺||+2800 🔺❄️||+3500 🔺|
Check out our Masters odds, Players Championship odds, and PGA Championship odds.
WM Phoenix Open: Key stats
- Strokes gained: approach
- SG: off-the-tee
- Birdie-or-better percentage
- Scrambling percentage
- Par 4 efficiency
- Bogey avoidance
WM Phoenix Open picks to win
Scottie Scheffler (+1300 via FanDuel)
Thanks to both Rahm and McIlroy entering this event in peak form, we're getting excellent value on the next tier of elite golfers. Though Rahm has plenty of experience in this event and at this venue after attending Arizona State University, he has never won the WM Phoenix Open. McIlroy's only appearance in this event was a T-13 finish in 2021.
Scheffler opened at +1500 via FanDuel but the +1300 remains a great price for the defending champion and second-ranked golfer in the world, even in a field with both Rahm and McIlroy. After winning four times last year, Scheffler already has a T-7 and T-11 result in 2023. He's returning to the site of his first PGA Tour victory.
Among the allure to backing Scheffler this week is that he lost 0.40 strokes per round on approach in his victory last year. He's in usual top form with his irons this season, averaging 0.74 true strokes gained: approach on the field per round.
Bettors should note that DraftKings offers a +250 odds surge to be used on one outright bet for the WM Phoenix Open. Using that on Scheffler can bring his odds up to a more attractive price of +1450 that becomes the best in the market.
Patrick Cantlay (+2100 via FanDuel)
Cantlay debuted at the WM Phoenix Open last year and went to a playoff with Scheffler. His statistical performance for the week was in line with that of much of his career: not elite in a specific area, but well-rounded across the board, and he got hot with the putter.
For the 2022-23 PGA Tour season, Cantlay leads all qualified golfers in par-4 birdie-or-better percentage and bogey avoidance, and he's second in overall birdie-or-better percentage.
I would play Cantlay down to the +1800 that's available elsewhere but the +2100 via FanDuel is a nice gift to kick off our Super Bowl week.
Viktor Hovland (+3500 via DraftKings)
Hovland was priced as high as +3500 via DraftKings as recently as Friday during the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. That price dropped to +3000 when odds were re-posted Monday and have fluctuated throughout the week. As of Tuesday evening, PointsBet is the best place to go to back Hovland. The 11th-ranked golfer in the world is still a value thanks to this elite field, as he has just the 14th-best odds.
Hovland has been strong off the tee and on approach at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He finished T-13 at Pebble Beach and averaged 1.32 SG: off-the-tee over four rounds. Though he missed the cut in each of his first two career appearances at the WM Phoenix Open, Hovland remains a fan favorite and should play well with the enthusiastic crowd support.
Through 16 rounds on the 2022-23 season, Hovland is seventh in birdie-or-better percentage, 38th in scrambling percentage, and 10th in par-4 birdie-or-better percentage.
WM Phoenix Open futures bets
- Rickie Fowler +8000 - Jan. 2, 2023
- K.H. Lee +13000 - Jan. 14, 2023
- Keegan Bradley +13000 - Jan. 29, 2023
- Viktor Hovland +3500 - Feb. 4, 2023
Fowler was priced at +8000 when the odds for the WM Phoenix Open were first posted. Those odds have dropped to a market-high of +7500 via Caesars as of Tuesday evening. This was the site of Fowler's last PGA Tour win in 2019, and though he missed the cut in each of his last two appearances, the Puma-orange-clad fan favorite had two top-10 results during the fall swing and is coming off a further-encouraging T-11 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open.
WM Phoenix Open power rankings
WM Phoenix Open power rankings courtesy or Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker.
10. Justin Thomas
There’s been a forcefield around the cup when Thomas lines up a putt, as he ranks 180th in SG: putting this season and 106th in this field in true SG: putting across his past 23 measured rounds. He’s made five consecutive cuts at TPC Scottsdale with three top-10 finishes, but you’ve got to roll it to win, and I consider Thomas a high-risk, high-reward target for poolies because of his work with the flat stick.
9. Billy Horschel
Admittedly, Horschel isn’t in the best form statistically, or in terms of recent results. I’m still viewing him as a high-floor option based on his track record at this event, though. He had his best finish here last season (T-6) and has played the weekend in nine of 10 career trips. Additionally, there’s positive regression ahead. Horschel’s 0.042 SG: tee-to-green and minus-0.020 SG: putting per round this season are lagging way behind last year’s respective metrics of 0.583 and 0.448.
8. Patrick Cantlay
It was a ho-hum January for Cantlay, and he’s only teed it in three events all season. The eight-time PGA Tour winner lost in a playoff here last year in his first trip to the WM Phoenix Open, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the PGA Championship in May. Still, I view Cantlay as more of a contender than a frontrunner this week.
7. Max Homa
If there’s a box, Homa checks it. He’s coming off of his sixth tour victory at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago and hasn’t missed a stateside cut in over a year. Statistically, he ranks second in true SG: putting and true SG: tee-to-green while also leading the field in true SG: approach across his past seven measured rounds. Homa has also played the weekend in all four of his trips to Scottsdale. So, while I’m not expecting him to win consecutive events, I do anticipate another four solid rounds for the surging star.
6. Hideki Matsuyama
A two-time winner at this event, Matsuyama is also coming off his best result of the season at the Farmers with a T-9 showing. You’re not going to find him near the top of any statistical leaderboards heading into this week’s action, but his eight PGA Tour victories speak for themselves, and Matsuyama’s proven capable of taking down elite fields seemingly out of nowhere.
5. Scottie Scheffler
The defending champ has four top-five finishes and another two top-10 results through his past eight events and also carded a T-7 at the 2021 WM Phoenix Open. He’ll need to heat up with the putter to contend this time around, though. Scheffler ranks 159th in SG: putting this season and 68th in this field in true SG: putting across his past 10 measured rounds. Statistical correction is ahead on the greens after Scheffler gained 0.202 strokes per round in the metric last season, but I’m not convinced it’ll all come together this week.
4. Collin Morikawa
Morikawa hasn’t won since The Open in July 2021, and while I’m not big on the “due” narrative, the 26-year-old American is showcasing winning form. He has consecutive top-5 results and paces this field in true SG: tee-to-green and ranks second in SG: approach across his past seven measured rounds. Just note, this will be just the second trip to Scottsdale for Morikawa. He finished T-25 in the 2020 edition of this event.
3. Xander Schauffele
If there’s a lock to be in contention based on their current form and course history this week, it’s Schauffele. He’s played the weekend in all five trips to TPC Scottsdale and has finishes of second- and third-place the past two years. He’s also made 15 consecutive cuts with two wins, another four top-five results, and 10 total top-20 finishes. If you’re looking to nitpick, the highlighted stretch does include a withdrawal from last month’s Sentry Tournament of Champions because of a back injury, and his first win last season was in a team event.
2. Rory McIlroy
With three wins across his past seven worldwide starts and no finish worse than T-4 during the heater, McIlroy heads to Scottsdale with a 24th PGA Tour victory in his sights. A Sunday 64 during the 2021 event propelled him up to a T-13 finish in his lone trek around this track, and he’s pacing the field in true SG: off-the-tee and SG: tee-to-green across his past 29 rounds.
1. Jon Rahm
I think Rahm playing poorly in two of four rounds at the Farmers and still finishing T-7 says as much about his form as winning his prior two starts. Put differently, we’re in a stretch where every event is his to lose. He’s a fitting betting favorite given his track record at TPC Scottsdale and familiarity with the elements as a graduate of Arizona State University. Pacing the tour in scoring average and ranking third in SG: tee-to-green further affirms his second-to-none play.
WM Phoenix Open expert picks
WM Phoenix Open expert picks made by Esten McLaren, Neil Parker, and Shane Jackson.
|Esten McLaren||Neil Parker||Shane Jackson|
|Outright||Patrick Cantlay (+2100 via FanDuel)||Collin Morikawa (+1800 via BetMGM)||Xander Schauffele (+1600 via BetMGM)|
|Long shot||Rickie Fowler (+7000 via PointsBet)||Billy Horschel (+11000 via PointsBet)||Sungjae Im (+2800 via BetMGM)|
|Prop pick||K.H. Lee first-round leader (+7500 via Caesars)||Hideki Matsuyama to finish top 20 (+140 via DraftKings)||Tony Finau to finish top 10 (+190 via FanDuel)|
WM Phoenix Open outright picks
Patrick Cantlay (+2100 via FanDuel)
Cantlay, at this price, is my favorite pick of the week. The 30-year-old has seven solo PGA Tour victories and finished alone in second in his debut at TPC Scottsdale last year after losing in a playoff to Scheffler. His odds to win outright are as low as +1800 elsewhere, so we're jumping on FanDuel's outlier price.
Cantlay leads the PGA Tour in par-4 birdie-or-better percentage and bogey avoidance this season, and he's second in overall birdie-or-better percentage. Known as 'Patty Ice', we can expect him to once again be immune to the crowd pressures. - McLaren
Collin Morikawa (+1800 via BetMGM)
Morikawa is in winning form with consecutive top-five finishes, and he paces this field in true SG: tee-to-green and ranks second in SG: approach across his past seven measured rounds. Additionally, TPC Scottsdale doesn’t require elite work on the greens to leave the fan-favorite event victorious, so I’m placing additional emphasis on ball-striking this week – Morikawa’s forte.
BetMGM is also on an island with this price, as our other best sportsbooks have Morikawa trading at +1600 to win this week. It might not seem like a significant edge at first glance, but we’re landing a positive expected value of 12% backing the two-time major champ at +1800 via BetMGM compared to the number available through the other shops. - Parker
Xander Schauffele (+1600 via BetMGM)
It's criminal that Xander hasn’t won this event already. He has made it to the weekend in all five trips to TPC Scottsdale and has been in contention four of those times. Schauffele finished T-3 at this event last year and was a runner-up in 2021.
Schauffele’s course history might be getting overlooked a bit after he withdrew from the Sentry Tournament of Championship due to a back injury, but he concluded January with a third-place finish at the American Express. Relative to the other elite players in this field, BetMGM’s +1600 offering on Schauffele feels like a bargain, especially considering he is 12/1 at most other shops. - Jackson
WM Phoenix Open long-shot picks
Rickie Fowler (+7000 via PointsBet)
Fowler was priced at +8000 on DraftKings' look-ahead lines for the WM Phoenix Open. Now as low as +6000 elsewhere, we're still getting decent value via PointsBet for the recent winner of this event.
TPC Scottsdale is the site of Fowler's most recent PGA Tour victory. After a stretch of poor play which saw his world ranking plummet and his long-standing invitations to multiple majors revoked, Fowler has seemingly turned a corner since the fall swing. Once as high as No. 4 in the OWGR, Fowler is back to No. 100 with three finishes of T-11 or better in his last six events. A win at this venue on Super Bowl Sunday to secure his Masters invite is the storyline we dream of. - McLaren
Billy Horschel (+11000 via PointsBet)
Horschel’s ho-hum Hawaiian results are more than baked into these odds, and his underwhelming current form is the only snag for the seven-time winner and 19th-ranked player in the OWGR. After all, Horschel was trading at +5000 entering last year’s event, and he finished T-6. It was the ninth time in 10 trips to Scottsdale that he played the weekend.
There’s also a huge advantage attached to the +11000 odds available through PointsBet and DraftKings. Caesars is listing Horschel at +7000, so shopping to secure the best number presents a positive expected value of 55%. Additionally, the potential for an over-the-top celebration in front of a rambunctious crowd would be the perfect segway into Super Bowl 57 – for me at least. - Parker
Sungjae Im (+2800 via BetMGM)
So I’m obviously cheating a bit with this pick because a 28/1 shouldn’t be considered a long shot. But this tournament has become so big that bettors should treat it similar to a major, in which we simply want to bet on really good players. Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Fowler, and Gary Woodland are our most recent winners here.
Im recorded his first PGA Tour win at the Honda Classic, which has a similar atmosphere from a fan perspective to the Phoenix Open. Im missed this event last year, but made the weekend in each of his last three trips and finished as high as T-7 in 2019. He’s coming in with great form after a fourth-place finish at the Farmers, so let’s ride the hot hand this weekend and get Im to the winner’s circle. - Jackson
WM Phoenix Open prop picks
K.H. Lee first-round leader (+7500 via Caesars)
Lee enters this week a modest 104th in Round 1 scoring average this season, but that jumps to 51st with an early tee time, as he has this week. He has had four rounds of 66 or lower this season and had an opening round of 65 in this event last year.
Lee has the ability to go low in any round, even if it doesn't carry through a full tournament. His two PGA Tour wins to date were at TPC Craig Ranch, and he has a clear affinity for related TPC venues. In an event where even the biggest names can get caught up in the excitement early on, Lee's proven to be up to the hype. - McLaren
Hideki Matsuyama to finish top 20 (+140 via DraftKings)
This track fits Matsuyama’s eye. He’s a two-time winner of this event and has added another five top-20 finishes in nine trips. I’m also encouraged by his recent strong showing at the Farmers. Matsuyama fired consecutive minus-3 rounds over the weekend to climb the leaderboard and card a T-9 finish.
Diving deeper into those weekend numbers, Matsuyama gained strokes in all the key areas and finished seventh in SG: total in Round 3 and fourth in Round 4. That’ll do, ‘Dek.
I also consider this a favorable price. The shortest number available is +125 through FanDuel, and compared to the +140 odds, we’re landing a positive expected value of 7% on the FanDuel number. - Parker
Tony Finau to finish top 10 (+190 via FanDuel)
Finau is a popular outright pick this week, and for good reason. Finau has finished 16th or better in all three of his events since the calendar flipped to January, including a pair of top-10 finishes. Since I’m already a bit overexposed in the outright market, I like the idea of betting on Finau to be in the mix come Sunday.
Finau has been hit-or-miss at this event, missing the cut in three of his last four visits. The one time he did make the weekend, though, Finau delivered a runner-up finish in a loss to Simpson. Finau could find himself near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday, so let’s take the plus-money price on him to finish inside the top 10. - Jackson
WM Phoenix Open info
When: Thursday, Feb. 9 - Sunday, Feb. 12
Where: TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, AZ
How to watch: Golf Channel, ESPN+, CBS
TPC Scottsdale course profile
Length: 7,261 yards
TPC Scottsdale has hosted the PGA Tour every year since 1987. The winner of the event at TPC Scottsdale has finished at least 11-under par every year since Jerry Pate in 1977. Each of the last six champions here had a 72-hole score of minus-16 or better, with Scheffler defeating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff at that number last year.
There were 22 golfers who finished with a 72-hole score of minus-10 or better in 2022. Nine golfers broke 70 in all four rounds. Though Scheffler was not one of them, his third-round 62 drove him to the top of the leaderboard and into a tie with Cantlay entering Sunday's final round.
Despite the low overall scores, a modest eight holes had a scoring average below par last year. The easiest was the 558-yard, par-5 13th with a stroke average of 4.534 and 12 eagles carded. The three par 5s, ranging from 553 to 558 yards, conceded a total of 33 eagles.
Only one of the four par 3s scored below par last year, and that was the shortest and most famous of the bunch with the 163-yard 16th giving up two aces and a tournament scoring average of 2.927. One par 4 is shorter than 400 yards with five in each of the key ranges of 400-450 yards and 450-500 yards.
Water and the desert are the primary hazards at TPC Scottsdale. Golfers must be accurate off the tee and an elite approach game has been a necessity for success. The pressure and atmosphere from the raucous crowd cannot go overlooked as a potential hurdle en route to victory.
Recent WM Phoenix Open winners
|Year||Winner||Score to Par||Winning Margin|
|2022||Scottie Scheffler||-16||Playoff (Patrick Cantlay)|
|2021||Brooks Koepka||-19||1 stroke|
|2020||Webb Simpson||-17||Playoff (Tony Finau)|
|2019||Rickie Fowler||-17||2 strokes|
|2018||Gary Woodland||-18||Playoff (Chez Reavie)|
How to watch the WM Phoenix Open
The WM Phoenix Open will be broadcasted on Golf Channel and CBS, with PGA Tour Live streaming exclusive early round coverage.
|1||2 p.m. ET||Golf Channel|
|2||2 p.m. ET||Golf Channel|
|3||Noon ET||Golf Channel|
|3||2 p.m. ET||CBS|
|4||Noon ET||Golf Channel|
|4||2 p.m. ET||CBS|
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