Farmers Insurance Open Picks & Odds 2024: Finding Value in Second-Tier Contenders

The PGA Tour runs from Wednesday through Saturday this week, and we're making our best Farmers Insurance Open picks based on the PGA Tour odds from our best golf betting sites with Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay set as the opening betting favorites.

The PGA Tour's early run of unexpected, long-shot winners to start the 2024 season continued last week. Amateur Nick Dunlap won The American Express, outlasting a strong field, including Justin Thomas and Sam Burns. 

Dunlap, who was available before the tournament with odds as high as +40000 (400/1), was the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson (1991) and the youngest (20) to do so since 1910.

After his breakthrough win, Dunlap withdrew from this field to be with friends and family. Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, who rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), top the oddsboard.

This tournament is customarily played from Wednesday through Saturday to clear the way for Sunday's NFL conference championship round.

Farmers Insurance Open odds 2024

Odds last updated Wednesday at 8 a.m. ET.

Farmers Insurance Open picks

• Adrian Meronk to finish top 10 (+500 via bet365)
• Sepp Straka to finish top 20 (+240 via FanDuel)

Sepp Straka to finish top 20 (+240 via FanDuel)

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Entering the week at No. 17 in the OWGR, Straka is being very undervalued. The Austrian star tied for 12th in The Sentry to open the 2024 PGA Tour season but has been off since, giving him a rest advantage over much of this week's field.

The 30-year-old two-time PGA Tour winner tied for 16th in the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open before not playing last year. He was excellent around the greens and from tee-to-green in that performance two years ago, and those both remain strengths of his current game, especially strokes gained: tee-to-green.

Straka has also been riding a hot putter across his last 12 measured rounds dating back to the fall. He ranked 96th on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage when approaching the green from 175-200 yards last season, but he made five birdies on eight such approaches during The Sentry as an early sign of improvement to start 2024.

Most importantly, we're getting excellent value via this outlier +240 price from FanDuel. BetMGM has set Straka's odds of a top-20 finish at the market-low of +175.

Adrian Meronk to finish top 10 (+500 via bet365)

Editor's note: Meronk withdrew from the Farmers Insurance Open on Wednesday morning.

Meronk enters the week of the Farmers Insurance Open at a career-best 39th in the OWGR following three straight top 10 finishes on the DP World Tour. That run culminated with a runner-up finish in which he finished one stroke behind Rory McIlroy in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic last week.

If it wasn't for the travel on a short week, I'd be very interested in backing Meronk's +6000 odds from BetMGM for the outright win. But this is also only his second appearance in the Farmers Insurance Open, so it calls for a little safety. As such, we're sticking with this market-best +500 offering from bet365 for a top-10 finish from the 30-year-old Polish golfer.

Meronk has plenty of length for Torrey Pines, and he has also been in excellent form with his approach game and putter.

Farmers Insurance Open favorite 2024

Xander Schauffele (+1000 via DraftKings)

Schauffele is the top-ranked golfer in the field, and he's coming off a T-3 finish in The American Express. That followed a T-10 finish in The Sentry to start the 2024 PGA Tour season.

The San Diego native missed the cut in four of his first five appearances in this event but a T-2 finish in 2021 could have been a turning point. He tied for 34th and for 13th in his last two attempts in this tournament.

Schauffele enters this week in excellent statistical form, but he went without a win again in 2023 after claiming two solo titles in 2022. The 30-year-old remains tough to back as an outright winner, especially with suppressed odds as the tournament favorite.

Unfortunately for interested bettors, there's even less value in the placing markets. bet365 offers odds of just +125 for a top-10 finish, and a top 20 is priced at -160.

Farmers Insurance Open field notes

Torrey Pines is a favorite of PGA Tour golfers and this event regularly draws a strong field, even though it's not a Signature Event.

Defending champion Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, and Keegan Bradley join Schauffele and Cantlay as the top 15 players from the OWGR in the field. Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, and Shane Lowry are in the next tier of top contenders.

Daniel Berger will also play for the second straight week after a strong T-39 finish last week in what was his return to competitive play for the first time since the 2022 U.S. Open.

Torrey Pines Golf Course info (South Course)

• Par: 72
• Length: 7,765 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua
• Architect: William Francis Bell

The Farmers Insurance Open, as usual, will be split between Torrey Pines' North and South Courses for the first two days. All 156 members of the field will alternate between the two courses on Wednesday and Thursday. The top 65 (and ties) who make the 36-hole cut will play the South Course only for their third and fourth rounds.

Torrey Pines is quite flat but long. There is only one water hazard on the South Course but sand bunkers protect the course from low scores.

Scoring must be done during the one round on the North Course as well as on the par 5s of the South Course.

Farmers Insurance Open tournament info

• Where: Torrey Pines Golf Course, San Diego, CA
• When: Wednesday, Jan. 24 - Saturday, Jan. 27
• Field: 156
• 2023 champion: Max Homa
• Purse: $9 million
• FedEx Cup points: 500

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