🥇 Cognizant Classic First-Round Leader Prediction & Odds: Who Leads After Round 1?

It's not a Signature Event, but the Cognizant Classic (formerly the Hondal Classic) is one of my favorite PGA Tour tournaments. I love the golf that PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., brings out. Though withdrawals were an issue on Monday, we still have several notable names in the field, including Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka, and past tournament champions Keith Mitchell, Chris Kirk, and Austin Eckroat.

My Cognizant Classic first-round leader predictions dig into the odds for Thursday's leader, as well as the Round 1 tee time and weather forecast at PGA National. It will be a mostly sunny day with wind becoming an issue later in the day.

💰 Cognizant Classic first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the Cognizant Classic:

⛳ Who'll lead the Cognizant Classic after Round 1?

Keith Mitchell (+4000)

Round 1 tee time: 7:45 a.m. ET | Group: Joe Highsmith and Chris Kirk

Mitchell is routinely one of my favorite first-round leader bets. Though he ranks just 89th in Round 1 scoring average (69.60) through five events this season, he was fourth in the same stat last season (24 events).

Mitchell and his two playing partners for Thursday and Friday are all past champions of PGA National. They'll be out Thursday morning and finishing their round before the strongest wind is expected. That will help Mitchell lean on his distance off the tee without as much need to worry about his wayward driver. His approach play and short game have also been strong this season.

Haotong Li (+5900)

Round 1 tee time: 12:59 p.m. ET | Group: Marcelo Rozo and Davis Chatfield

Haotong Li has the latest tee time of my three first-round leader picks this week. Though I strongly prefer Thursday's morning wave this week, Li has the approach game and accuracy off the tee to fight the afternoon winds. And we're seeing boosted odds for anyone playing their first round in the afternoon.

Li has played four events already this season in his first campaign as a PGA Tour regular. He's 46th on Tour with a first-round scoring average of 68.50.

Austin Eckroat (+7600)

Round 1 tee time: 6:45 a.m. ET | Group: Danny Willett and Beau Hossler

Eckroat will be in Thursday's first grouping sent off the 10th tee at 6:45 a.m. ET. The past champion of PGA National is tied with Li (and others) in first-round scoring average, with an equal four events played.

He lacks distance off the tee, but his familiarity with the course should help him while he leans on his accuracy. He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour this season in proximity to the pin on approach shots from this week's key distance of 150-175 yards.

BONUS: Brooks Koepka to be the first-round leader

Our Dustin Saracini broke down his case for Brooks Koepka (+3500 via FanDuel) to be the first-round leader.

"While Koepka's overall 2026 season stats have been weighed down by poor Sunday finishes, his first-round scoring average remains his strongest metric. 

Further, Brooks currently ranks 22nd on Tour in strokes gained: approach (0.661) and an incredible sixth in strokes gained: around-the-green (0.666). At a course that demands strong iron play and elite scrambling to save par, Koepka's fresh legs on Thursday give him a distinct advantage over the field." - via our best Brooks Koepka bets

🌤️ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

Thursday's weather at PGA National

Weather from Accuweather:

🏦 Cognizant Classic bankroll management

Myself and our Dustin Saracini talk more about our bankroll management this week in our Cognizant Classic picks. For me, this is one my favorite events outside of the more popular tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule. I'm also thankful to not have a week where we need to navigate Scottie Scheffler skewing the oddsboard.

The first-round leader market is also one of my favorites in golf betting. It adds excitement late in the work week. It's also a volatile and variable betting market that can produce long-shot winners.

The inflated odds - especially in this watered-down field - also allow for lower investment and higher reward. I'm making my best bet this week (Keith Mitchell) a half-unit play, while Haotong Li and Austin Eckroat each get a quarter unit. The bets will return between 14.75 and 20 units if they win.

Learn more about proper bankroll management from our LJ Blut.

📊 Cognizant Classic first-round leader odds

Here are the Cognizant Classic first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.