⛳ Cadillac Championship First-Round Leader Prediction & Odds: Who Leads After Round 1 in Trump National Doral?

The 2026 Cadillac Championship is headlined by Scottie Scheffler, who enters as the +290 favorite and leads a stacked field into the iconic Blue Monster at Trump National Doral. This signature PGA Tour event returns with a loaded leaderboard, as the world’s best compete for a massive purse on one of the most demanding courses on the schedule.

Tee times are set to begin at 8:40 a.m. ET off the first tee. Unlike the Zurich Classic’s team format, this is a traditional stroke-play event, placing full emphasis on individual performance from the opening round. Catch Thursday’s action on PGA Tour Live (ESPN+) and Golf Channel throughout the day.

Below I break down my best Cadillac Championship first-round leader prediction & odds.  

💰 Cadillac Championship first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the Cadillac Championship.

⛳ Who'll lead the Cadillac Championship after Round 1?

Jake Knapp (+3400)

Jake Knapp is a strong first-round leader candidate at the 2026 Cadillac Championship, largely due to his reputation as a fast starter in tournaments. Knapp has consistently shown the ability to come out aggressive early, gaining strokes off the tee and creating immediate birdie chances before conditions toughen later in the day.

At a demanding course like the Blue Monster at Trump National Doral, that early-round scoring ability is critical. Players who can take advantage of softer morning conditions and manageable pin placements often separate from the field quickly, and that plays directly into Knapp’s strengths.

Need a complete list of the Cadillac Championship odds? I've got you covered.

Chris Gotterup (+3200)

Chris Gotterup is a strong first-round leader candidate at the Cadillac Championship thanks to his aggressive style and ability to go low early. He thrives when attacking pins and can rack up birdies in bunches, especially before course conditions firm up. At the Blue Monster at Trump National Doral, his elite driving distance sets him apart, giving him shorter irons into demanding greens. That advantage is key for early scoring.

If Gotterup comes out sharp with his irons and putter, he has the firepower and confidence to post a low number and lead after round one.

Justin Rose (+3000)

Justin Rose is a compelling first-round leader pick at the Cadillac Championship thanks to his experience and ability to start tournaments with precision. Rose is known for his elite iron play and controlled ball flight, allowing him to attack early pin positions and generate consistent birdie looks. At the Blue Monster at Trump National Doral, course management is critical, and Rose excels in avoiding mistakes while taking advantage of scoring opportunities.

With his steady putting and veteran poise, Rose has the tools to post a clean, low round early and put himself atop the leaderboard after Thursday.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weatherto be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

Thursday's weather at Trump National Doral

Weather from Accuweather:

📊 Cadillac Championship first-round leader odds

Here are the Cadillac Championship first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.