How to Bet On The American Express Winner Odds at Prediction Markets

Scottie Scheffler won six of the 21 PGA Tour events (and majors) he played last year, good for 28.6% win rate. With prediction markets like Kalshi giving him just a 22% chance to win this week's The American Express, are actually getting value on the No. 1 player in golf? Let's dive into the golf prediction market and how to trade on Scheffler and other top favorites to win at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif.

⛳ Who will win The American Express

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

As of the time of publish, there had been over $1.4 million traded on the American Express outright market - which asks for the winner of the 72-hole PGA Tour event.

With a chance to win of 23% from Kalshi, it costs 23 cents per share to back Scheffler to win this week. It's 78 cents per share to back the no side of the market. A $100 investment on Scheffler to win would return a total payout of $235, while the same amount on a no prediction would return $129 ($29 profit).

🏌️ The American Express favorites

We're breaking down The American Express as part of our golf picks this week.

After Scheffler, the next-closest contenders to win The American Express are Ludvig Aberg, Ben Griffin, Robert MacIntyre, and Russell Henley, all with a 4% chance of winning the tournament. A $100 investment on yes (at 4 cents) would return $2,500.

💰 Why should I wager on The American Express golf tournament at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes rather than placing traditional bets. In a golf market, that could mean a contract asking whether Scottie Scheffler will win a PGA Tour event or whether a golfer will make the cut. If a “Yes” contract is priced at 28 cents, the market is implying a 28 percent chance. If the outcome happens, the contract settles at $1. If it does not, it settles at $0. Prices move based on supply and demand, and unlike sportsbooks, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or limit losses as a tournament unfolds.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line. Prices are driven by supply and demand. You can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.