The American Express Picks: Best Bets to Win, Top Finishes & Top Region Props
The 2026 PGA Tour season continues with its mainland debut in the California desert for the 67th playing of The American Express in La Quinta, Calif, with three different courses being used for the tournament, and I'm dropping my American Express picks to get you set for Thursday's tee-off.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+300) tees it up for the first time this season and is the favorite to win outright, but is he a part of my best bets? Let's dive in.
π° American Express picks
Here are our top golf picks for the American Express.
| Market | Pick | Best odds |
|---|---|---|
| Outright winner | Scottie Scheffler | +300 |
| Long shot winner | Nick Taylor | +1700 |
| Top in region | Ludvig Aberg (Top Nordic) | +175 |
π American Express pick to win: Scottie Scheffler (+300)
In a tournament dominated by American winners, Scottie Scheffler has yet to take home the trophy at La Quinta. Scheffler knows this course; he's secured four top-25 finishes in five starts, albeit finishing in the top 10 just once - in 2020 when he led after 54 holes (he finished solo third that year). In a light field, and as one of the all-time greats playing in weather conducive to low scoring, Scheffler will win his first tournament of the season.
π― American Express sleeper pick: Nick Taylor (+1700)
I'm surprised at how long these odds are for Nick Taylor, considering he finished just outside the top 10 a year ago at La Quinta and was dialed in at the Sony Open last week, finishing T13. Don't forget the Canadian put together consecutive eagles at this very golf course last year, too. If he gets hot on Thursday, you won't see +1700 betting odds anymore. I'm dropping .5u on him as we speak.
π₯ Best American Express bets
Top in Region: Ludvig Aberg top Nordic (+175)
Aberg is the best Nordic golfer at La Quinta this week. With +2500 odds to win the American Express outright, the next closest Nordic golfer is Alex Noren, who comes into Thursday with +4500 odds. The world No. 18 makes his 2026 season debut at the AmEx, and is coming off a 2025 season with six top 10s and one PGA Tour win. Look for him to take down Noren, whose campaign a year ago left a lot to be desired.
Winner without Scottie Scheffler - Robert MacIntyre (+2000)
This is a momentum play after MacIntyre finished T-4 at last week's Sony Open while also ending the 2025 season in strong form. It was much of the same in the offseason, with three spins around the DP World Tour earning him in three top-nine finishes - capped off by a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links. Safe to say, heβs feeling himself and looking very comfortable right now.
βοΈ How I'm handicapping the American Express
Tournament history and recent form
When diving into early season tournament wagers, recent form can be tough to analyze, as the Sony Open is the only event that's been played so far on the PGA Tour schedule. However, what you can do is look at historical finishes at this tournament, which has been played on the same golf course, and track how each individual golfer has fared on the course.
Course setup
Since the event is played in a low-scoring desert setup where birdie-makers thrive, look for golfers with strong approach play, wedge distance control, and putting on Bermuda greens. Outside of outright betting, you can consider markets like top-20 finishes or first-round leader to capitalize on volatility early in the week.
β³ American Express tournament info 2026
- Where: Pete Dye Stadium Course (PGA West) La Quinta, Calif.
- When: Thursday, January 22 - Sunday, January 25, 2026
- Field: Full PGA Tour field (~156 players)
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+300)
- Defending champion: Sepp Straka
- Purse: $9.2 million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
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