American Express Long Shot Picks: 3 Sleepers With Odds > +10000
I'm backing Michael Brennan, Lee Hodges, and Sami Välimäki in my American Express long-shot picks & sleepers for this weekend's tournament at PGA West at La Quinta, Calif.
While Scottie Scheffler is the clear betting favorite (+300), there is loads of value in backing a long shot, with last year's winner Sepp Straka starting the tournament with +5000 odds. Those odds imply a 1.96% implied probability. So, come along as I provide reasons for their potential win.
🎯 American Express long shots to bet
Here are our best long-shot golf picks for American Express based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
| Pick | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Michael Brennan | +10000 |
| Lee Hodges | +10000 |
| Sami Välimäki | +10000 |
🐎 American Express sleeper picks
Michael Brennan (+10000)
Michael Brennan has seen his odds shrink from +40000 to +10000 since Sunday night, and there are several reasons for that. He won in his first career start and has a very high ceiling in a tournament that often produces volatile winners. This is one of the lowest-scoring tournaments of the entire year, and if you look back at the American Express betting history, you will see that several winners were high-priced entrants. Brennan also played in last weekend's Sony Open, which could provide a valuable warm-up round for him.
Lee Hodges (+10000)
Hodges is entering the American Express off a top-10 finish at the Sony Open. He was striking the ball and putting very well all weekend and finished tied for sixth. I am banking on Hodges continuing his strong form and carrying it over into the American Express. Hodges also had a solid showing at the American Express in 2025, where he finished in the top 40. He has experience playing on all three courses the players will be on this weekend, and he should be in the mix come championship Sunday.
Sami Välimäki (+10000)
My third and final long shot selection for the American Express is Sami Välimäki. This play is strictly a numbers play, as I think the odds are too long for a golfer like Välimäki, who has proven he can deliver big performances. Välimäki also has experience playing on all three courses the players will be on this weekend. He should be able to keep himself in the mix, and at these odds, I do see value on him. He should be charging up the leaderboard on Sunday.
💡 American Express expert picks
- American Express prediction market
- American Express Cheat Sheet
- American Express first-round leader predictions
- American Express picks
- American Express long-shot picks
- American Express odds
📜 American Express betting history
Here are the recent outright winners of the American Express and their betting odds prior to Round 1:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sepp Straka | -25 | +5000 |
| 2024 | Nick Dunlap | -29 | +30000 |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm | -27 | +750 |
| 2022 | Hudson Swafford | -23 | +15000 |
| 2021 | Si Woo Kim | -23 | +6000 |
| 2020 | Andrew Landry | -26 | +20000 |
| 2019 | Adam Long | -26 | +100 (The field) |
| 2018 | Jon Rahm | -22 | +800 |
| 2017 | Hudson Swafford | -20 | +5000 |
| 2016 | Jason Dufner | -25 | +4000 |
Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com.
⛳ American Express tournament info 2026
- Where: Pete Dye Stadium Course (PGA West) La Quinta, Calif.
- When: Thursday, January 22 - Sunday, January 25, 2026
- Field: Full PGA Tour field (~156 players)
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+300)
- Defending champion: Sepp Straka
- Purse: $9.2 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
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