What to Bet for The American Express: Cheat Sheet Picks for Outright Winner, FRL & Props
Need to know what to bet this week in golf? Our American Express cheat sheet offers outright winners, long shots, first-round leader picks, and top prop bets from our golf betting experts. This week's PGA Tour event takes place at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif., with the first tee times at 11:30 a.m. ET.
📝 American Express cheat sheet
Here are our best American Express bets as part of our golf picks this week; odds via our best golf betting sites.
| Expert | Pick to win | Long shot | First-round leader | Best prop bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esten McLaren | Sam Burns (+3300 via bet365) | Chris Kirk (+15000 via BetMGM) | Haotong Li, LQ (+4000 via DraftKings) | Alex Noren to finish top 20 (+220 via FanDuel) |
| Dustin Saracini | Scottie Scheffler (+300 via FanDuel) | Nick Taylor (+1700 via FanDuel) | Ryan Gerard, ST (+1800 via FanDuel) | Ludvig Aberg top Nordic (+175 via FanDuel) |
| LJ Blut | Michael Brennan (+10000 via FanDuel) | Sami Välimäki (+10000 via FanDuel) | Robert MacIntyre, NT (+1600 via FanDuel) | Robert MacIntyre top UK and Ireland (+250 via FanDuel) |
The American Express is played over a three-course rotation at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif. First-round leader markets are broken down by course for the first day:
- LQ = La Quinta Country Club
- ST: Pete Dye Stadium Course
- NT: Nicklaus Tournament Course
💰 Our American Express best bets
McLaren's best pick: Alex Noren to finish Top 20 (+220 via FanDuel)
Alex Noren to finish in the Top 20 is my best bet for The American Express. He enters the week at No. 13 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) ahead of his season debut. He claimed two victories on the DP World Tour to end last season. He's also the second-best putter in this field over the past six months, with 1.18 strokes gained: putting per round. We get a nice boost in his odds via FanDuel, compared to the +185 odds from DraftKings for the same finish.
How I'm betting The American Express: This tournament is a scoring fest and has been called a "putting contest" by players, including past champions. Only the Pete Dye Stadium Course poses any real test among this week's three-course rotation, and the weather is a non-issue this time of year in La Quinta. I'm looking at scoring average from last season and experience at this event, while cautiously betting anyone who played last week and had to travel back to the mainland from Hawaii.
Saracini's best pick: Ludvig Aberg top Nordic (+175)
Ludvig Aberg is the best Nordic golfer at La Quinta this week. With +2500 odds to win The American Express outright, the next closest Nordic golfer is Alex Noren, who comes into Thursday with +4500 odds. Aberg, the world No. 18 makes his 2026 season debut at the AmEx, and is coming off a 2025 season with six top 10s and one PGA Tour win. Look for him to take down Noren, whose PGA Tour campaign a year ago left a lot to be desired.
How I'm betting The American Express: When diving into early-season tournament wagers, recent form can be tough to analyze, as the Sony Open is the only event that's been played so far on the PGA Tour schedule. However, what you can do is look at historical finishes at this tournament, which has been played on the same golf course, and track how each golfer has fared.
Blut's best pick: Michael Brennan to win (+10000 via FanDuel)
Michael Brennan has seen his odds shrink from +40000 to +10000 since Sunday night, and there are several reasons for that. He won in his first career start and has a very high ceiling in a tournament that often produces long-shot winners. This is one of the lowest-scoring tournaments of the entire year, and if you look back at The American Express betting history, you will see that several winners carried long pre-tournament odds. Brennan also played in last weekend's Sony Open, which could provide a valuable warm-up round for him.
How I'm betting The American Express: When deciding how to bet on the early-season PGA Tour, there are several factors I like to consider: recent form (even though it’s a small sample size), historical data from the courses, and the value of the odds. The American Express often produces unexpected winners, with the winning score among the lowest of the season. I have targeted golfers who have met the criteria I listed above.
⛳ [Tournament X] tournament info 2026
- Where: PGA West (La Quinta, Calif.)
- When: Thursday, Jan. 22 - Sunday, Jan. 25
- Field: 156
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+300 via BetMGM)
- Defending champion: Sepp Straka
- Purse: $9.2 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
❓ The American Express FAQs
Who is favored to win The American Express?
The World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+300) is the favorite to win outright at The American Express.
Who won The American Express last year?
Sepp Straka (-25) won The American Express last year, beating out Justin Thomas (-23).
Where is The American Express?
The American Express is in La Quinta, Calif. and is played at the Pete Dye Stadium Course.
When is The American Express?
The American Express begins on Thursday, Jan. 22, and ends on Sunday, Jan. 25.
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