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Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion Prediction, Pick & Odds: Famous Toastery Bowl

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 18, 2023 1:27 PM EST • 3 min 50 sec read.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Old Dominion Monarchs get the college football landscape all to themselves on Monday afternoon for the Famous Toastery Bowl, and we offer our best Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion prediction based on the best college football odds at our best college football betting sites.

For CUSA foes, Western Kentucky and Old Dominion faced each other seven times between 2014 and 2021, with the Hilltoppers winning six matchups.  

Initially uncertain about bowl eligibility after recording a 5-5 record in its first 10 games, Western Kentucky secured its spot by winning the last two matches against Sam Houston and FIU. The Hilltoppers concluded the season at 7-5, securing triumphs by a combined 18 points.  

Meanwhile, Old Dominion, which attained full bowl eligibility in 2015, makes its third bowl appearance after concluding this year with a 6-6 record — a notable advancement of three wins from last season's 3-9 campaign.  

As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion prediction and our college football picks for Monday's Famous Toastery Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion prediction: Famous Toastery Bowl

Old Dominion -2.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Like most bowl games, this matchup is hard to handicap based on the early activity in the transfer portal. Western Kentucky has three starting offensive linemen, two cornerbacks, and a starting linebacker and safety in the transfer portal. However, the biggest impact could be the Hilltoppers' quarterback situation, as Austin Reed is rumored to be missing the bowl (though head coach Tyson Helton has not confirmed that), and backup quarterback Caden Veltkamp is in the portal.

(Editors note: Reed, Veltkamp, as well as three starting offensive linemen and three starting defenders, have been confirmed out for WKU on Monday afternoon)

In addition, based on last year's bowl game, there is precedent for Western Kentucky playing most of its players that are in the portal. However, we know that Western Kentucky had only one win against a bowl-eligible team this year (South Florida). In contrast, Old Dominion won four games against bowl teams and should be the more motivated squad, given that this is just its third bowl appearance in school history.

Old Dominion is also short-handed without the nation's leading tackler, linebacker Jason Henderson. However, we are backing the Monarchs largely because of what they can do offensively to expose Western Kentucky's defensive weaknesses. The Hilltoppers' defense has a 44% success rate against inside zone runs and ranks 125th in Rushing Explosiveness, while the Monarchs rank seventh in rushing EPA. We expect a big game from Old Dominion running back Kadarius Calloway, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 4.6 yards after contact. In addition, dual-threat quarterback Grant Wilson is an explosive runner and finished with 40-plus rushing yards in three of the last four games while totaling 19 runs of 10 or more yards this season.

In addition, while Western Kentucky's offense will likely not have trouble moving the ball, we envision it stalling in the red zone. The Hilltoppers rank 96th in Quality Drives, while the Old Dominion defense ranks in the top 25 in red zone efficiency and Finishing Drives. We love the momentum that Old Dominion comes in with, beating Georgia Southern and Georgia State, two bowl-eligible teams, on the game's final play in consecutive weeks to end the regular season.

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Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion best odds

bet365 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5
-112-115-115-115-110

Though all of our college football betting sites are in unison with a spread of -2.5, bet365 is our go-to shop as the only one charging the standard -110 in juice to back the favorites. This would be a pass at -3 points or higher, even though Old Dominion should be comfortable playing one-score games, as they are the first team since 2000 to play 10 one-score games over a 12-game season. If Austin Reed is active for Western Kentucky, we will likely pivot to a play on the Over on Old Dominion's team total.

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Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion odds

Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion odds analysis

This point spread completely swung in Old Dominion's favor after much of the transfer portal news became public, as Western Kentucky opened as high as -3 at FanDuel. Caesars and DraftKings are the only sportsbooks ever to reach Old Dominion -3, but bettors quickly pushed that line off the key number and back to -2.5. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in Old Dominion's last 11 games.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering a total of 54.5, as the O/U is most commonly found at 55, though BetMGM is at 55.5. The total reached a high of 58.5 at FanDuel on December 4th but plummeted to 55.5 by that afternoon as much of the portal news was revealed. So far, there is dead-even 50/50 action on either side of the total.

Famous Toastery Bowl game info

  • When: Monday, Dec. 18 at 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, NC
  • How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+
  • Weather: 57 degrees, 57% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph WNW

Western Kentucky-Old Dominion prediction made 12/14/2023 at 3:59 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”