Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

After it appeared Memphis would be without star QB Brendon Lewis last week against South Florida, he miraculously suited up and led the Tigers to an upset victory to put them in the driver's seat for the Group of Six College Football Playoff spot. Ryan Silverfield has Memphis playing so well that he's rumored for a Power Four job. And despite Rice's improvements under Scott Abell, who runs a spread option offense, the Owls are on a 1-3 skid. 

Rice running back Quinton Jackson reminded us how good he can be last week versus UConn with 168 rushing yards, 80 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. He now takes on a solid Memphis defensive front that ranks 71st nationally in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3). This front also ranks third-best in the American by stuff rate (24%) and fourth-best by defensive line yards (2.6). Jackson’s best games on the ground have all come against teams that are far worse in those metrics. Over his two starts versus teams that are 75th or better in yards allowed per rush attempt, Jackson posted rushing totals of 52 (Houston) and 60 (Navy). Let’s back him for another dud game in what should be a blowout. 

As a 14-point betting favorite, Memphis will have to do a lot to cover, and there is some risk of a big-win hangover following the victory over USF – and a lookahead stumble before next week’s game versus Tulane. But because of the lookahead loss to UAB before the USF game, head coach Ryan Silverfield should have his squad locked in because another stumble would cost this team its shot at the postseason. The good news for Memphis is that Rice’s run-heavy offense doesn’t generate explosive plays, but its defense allows plenty of them. Rice is a bottom-five team in explosiveness generated and allowed. These issues allowed Houston to beat them by 24 and UTSA to beat them by 48. Both of those teams had veteran quarterbacks like Lewis who won’t leave easy points on the board. Jeff Sagarin’s rankings favor Memphis by 21. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) favors Memphis by 17.5.

Syracuse wide receiver Johntay Cook is the best playmaker suiting up in this Halloween matchup. The Texas transfer leads the Orange in targets (57), receptions (40), and yards from scrimmage (519). UNC has given up 10 TD passes in five Power Four games.

Bill Belichick's team actually has one of the best run defenses in the ACC. The Tar Heels rank top 25 in EPA per rush on defense and allow the 20th-fewest rushing yards per game in the Power Four (110.6). Yasin Willis is averaging just 49 rushing yards per game since Steve Angeli's injury.

Syracuse allows the seventh-most passing yards per game in the country (273.9) and ranks No. 97 in EPA per pass on defense. Jordan Shipp is UNC's best playmaker by a mile, leading the team in targets (39) and receiving yards (320).

There's very little offensive talent suiting up in this Halloween matchup. The one potentially scary mismatch for UNC's defense taking the field for Syracuse is Johntay Cook. The former blue-chip recruit has averaged 76 receiving yards per game in his last five outings.

Since Rickie Collins took over as Syracuse's starting QB, following Steve Angeli's injury, the Orange are averaging just 12.5 PPG. North Carolina isn't much better, putting up 13.4 PPG against P4 opponents. This should be a spooky matchup for Over bettors on Halloween, with how terrifying these offenses have looked this season.

Sam Houston is allowing over 180 rushing yards per game, and while Thevenin has been held to fewer than 40 yards in four games this season, he's also topped 60 yards three times.

Sam Houston is 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread. The Bearkats have lost six of their seven games by at least 17 points this season.

You'd be hard-pressed to find a program builder who does it at the same level as Willie Fritz, who has Houston ranked in just his second season leading the Cougars. With a dual-threat QB in Conner Weigman and playmakers like Tanner Koziol and Dean Connors, Houston shouldn't have much trouble against a West Virginia program that may be regretting bringing back Rich Rodriguez. Houston also quietly has one of the best defensive lines in the country, led by Eddie Walls III.

Navy is 7-0, but it has only played one team with a winning record (Temple), and needed a last-second TD and 2-point conversion to beat the Owls. Navy is just 1-5 ATS against FBS teams. North Texas, on the other hand, is 6-2 ATS this season and has the best offense in the G6 (ranked No. 5 in the country by SP+).

Malachi Toney has been one of the most dynamic players in the country. The freshman is top 10 in college football in YAC (353) and top 30 in yards per route run (2.96). He can expose an SMU defense that's allowed the 17th-most TD passes in the country (16).

It's been a hangover season for SMU after reaching the College Football Playoff last season, and it doesn't help that there are plenty of rumors that Rhett Lashlee will leave the Lone Star State to go home and take the Arkansas job. Miami doesn't have those same distractions, after rebounding nicely from its upset loss to Louisville by beating Stanford 42-7 last week. With the best defensive player in the country on one side of the ball, Rueben Bain Jr., and the most dynamic freshman on the other side, Malachi Toney, the Canes shouldn't sweat this one on the road.

Though Texas let Kentucky QB Cutter Boley scamper for 45 rushing yards, that’s the outlier compared to their usual performance against mobile QBs.

If Texas watches the film from the Missouri game, it has the athletes to hold Pavia Under his rushing total in this matchup.

Texas has permitted an average of 283.3 passing yards per game over its past three contests. Though Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia hasn’t thrown for much volume in recent weeks, he’s capable of breaking down this Texas secondary if it continues to show these holes.

If Alexander can routinely get three yards from his blockers, he should be able to go Over this number. Alexander is averaging 48.5 rushing yards per game this year and 46.5 in SEC play.

I don’t foresee Pavia playing efficiently enough as a rusher to go Over this line. He needed 16 carries to tally 67 rushing yards against Texas last year.

Quarterback Arch Manning appears to be trending in the right direction for Saturday’s Vanderbilt vs. Texas matchup, but that doesn’t mean head coach Steve Sarkisian will want to risk the star’s health with his usual workload as a rusher. Manning leads the Longhorns in rushing touchdowns with six, far more than lead rusher Quintrevion Wisner, who has just a pair. Wisner has three touchdowns on the year, two of which came against Florida (one receiving), and another against Kentucky. He made a splash in last year’s game against Vanderbilt with 79 rushing and 39 receiving yards, but he just couldn’t find paydirt. With the questions that surround Manning, back Wisner to find paydirt.

Arch Manning has been in concussion protocol all week, which means the Longhorns quarterbacking duties could be left to fifth-year senior Matthew Caldwell. Caldwell did throw a touchdown pass late in last week’s win against Kentucky, but he has nearly double the amount of turnover-worthy plays to big-time throws in his career.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns defense ranks in the top 10 in pass rush, passing downs EPA allowed, and tackling grade (per PFF).

Arch Manning hasn’t been good, but the fall-off to backup Matthew Caldwell, who looks likely to start this game, moves the needle for me. The spread for this game was Texas -3.5 before Manning’s injury, and I can’t get to the current number of -1.5 with Caldwell under center. He struggled at Troy last year with a 65th-ranked passing efficiency score (135.9). In his two appearances versus non-Sun Belt opponents, Memphis and Iowa, Caldwell posted a 122.2 on 40 pass attempts.  Vanderbilt has the quarterback advantage with Diego Pavia under center, and I trust him to more than make up for the advantage Texas has defensively if Caldwell starts. Pavia ranks 20th in passing efficiency this year (159), up from his solid 38th-place ranking a year ago (143.5). The road matchup poses some issues, Pavia has gone on the road and won before in the SEC. His career road passing efficiency (143.7) clears Caldwell.

While Texas' comeback OT win against Mississippi State in Week 9 was impressive, it was still a game the Longhorns failed to cover the spread in ... they're no 2-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt took down a ranked Missouri team to lift its ATS record to 6-2. With Arch Manning exiting Texas' win over the Bulldogs with a concussion, there's no guarantee he'll be able to play against the Commodores either. Back Diego Pavia to keep this close on the road with these teams both being ranked top 15 by SP+. Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS this season when the spread is single digits either way.

Szarka has scored a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games, and became the first quarterback in Air Force history to eclipse the 100-yard mark in five straight. He is also the first Falcon with five straight 100-yard games at any position since fullback Brad Roberts did it in 2022.

The first Commander-in-Chief’s game this year between Navy and Air Force easily cashed the Over of 49.5 in a 34-31 Navy victory.

With both teams coming off a bye week, I expect new wrinkles from each offense in a game that should once again buck the trend of Unders between these teams.

Penn State is reeling, but the secondary remains potent enough to limit Ohio State’s passing attack – especially with the Buckeyes playing so slowly. Against Iowa, Penn State limited Iowa’s Mark Gronowski to 68 passing yards. The week before, this team kept Northwestern’s Preston Stone to 163. Nico Iamaleava (166) and Dante Moore (248) all stayed Under this number despite winning, too. The key here is Ohio State’s pace, which is the slowest in college football as head coach Ryan Day seeks to conserve his personnel for another title run. Ohio State is taking 31.5 seconds per play, 0.3 more than the next-slowest team, and they therefore rank 123rd in plays per game (62.2), which necessarily limits Sayin’s upside.

You’ve got to feel for backup quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer – the first two starts of his career will come at Iowa and at Ohio State. He managed a pathetic 93 passing yards on 28 attempts in the first of those games, but after a bye, I’m willing to back him to go Over a rock-bottom passing yardage prop total in the second. Ohio State’s defense is terrifying, to be sure. The Buckeyes rank third in passing yards allowed per game (141.2) and have been even better over their last three games (130.3). Still, Penn State has enough weapons for Grunkemeyer to improve on his performance at Iowa, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes Over thanks to big plays by his running backs on screens.

I had some concerns about the Penn State locker room and player motivation after head coach James Franklin got fired and quarterback Drew Allar got injured, but Kayton Allen responded in a big way versus Iowa. He ran the ball 28 times for 145 yards and two scores against one of the best defenses in college football, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some more big plays from him. Allen has a nose for the end zone, and the coaching staff may trust him much more than Nick Singleton at this point. Singleton touched the ball seven times versus Iowa, but Allen touched it a whopping 31 times. I love him at these odds to score versus Ohio State. 

Reynolds hasn't scored this season, but he's second on the team with 21 receptions, and he tied for the team lead in receptions two weeks ago in Ethan Grunkemeyer's first start.

Jackson has only scored three times this season, but he's scored in two of his last three games, and he leads Ohio State in carries and rushing yards.

Tate has scored six touchdowns this season, and he's found the end zone in five of seven games.

Penn State has fallen apart, and Ohio State head coach Ryan Day is poised to beat up on his former defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. Carnell Tate should be a major beneficiary of that, with the Buckeyes' wide receiver top 10 in the Big Ten in receiving yards (587) and top 20 in the country in contested catches (10) and yards per route run (3.23).

Grunkemeyer managed just 93 passing yards against Iowa, and now he has to take on a pass defense allowing just 131.3 yards per game. Ohio State has held four quarterbacks to fewer than 100 passing yards.

Without Drew Allar, Penn State has no shot in this game, as backup quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer went just 15-of-28 for 93 yards and two interceptions in his only start this year.

This is a classic betting mismatch between the best ATS team in Ohio State (6-0-1 ATS) and one of the worst in Penn State, who has covered the spread in six of its seven games. However, those trends have already been factored into this line, so I am making the contrarian play with Penn State.

The underdog has covered the spread in each of Penn State’s last eight games, including when the Nittany Lions covered a three-point spread in a near road upset of Iowa in their last game.

The dominant Buckeye defense should make life difficult on a Penn State offense that ranks outside the top 50 in FPI’s adjusted offensive efficiency, as Ohio State ranks sixth nationally in run defense (84.2 yards per game) and third nationally in pass defense (141.2 yards per game).

Last year, this was a matchup between top-five teams, with Ohio State winning by seven on the road. This year, it's in Columbus, and Penn State has completely fallen apart, firing James Franklin and losing four straight. With the Buckeyes having the No. 1-ranked defense by SP+ and an offense led by Heisman contender Julian Sayin, the Nittany Lions don't stand a chance on the road with backup freshman QB Ethan Grunkemeyer behind center. The Buckeyes enter this game 6-0-1 ATS, while Penn State is just 1-6.

Thanks to Louisville's massive upset road win over No. 2 Miami two weeks ago, Brian Brohm's name is popping up for some major coaching openings. Despite the rumors that he could leave his alma mater, his players don't seem fazed as they push for a shot at the ACC Championship. And while Virginia Tech is coming off a win under interim head coach Philip Montgomery, the Hokies don't have the athleticism to compete with a team led by future NFL players like Isaac Brown, Chris Bell, and Clev Lubin. On the bright side, it sounds like James Franklin could end up in Blacksburg.

Texas Tech's front seven is among the best in the country. The Red Raiders allow the fewest rushing yards per game in the nation (68.1) and sit No. 9 in sacks (26), which count against QB rushing yards. Avery Johnson hasn't played a defense nearly this talented yet.

While Texas Tech gets starting QB Behren Morton back for this matchup, the pressure is on for the Red Raiders to win out to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Rumor has it that if Joey McGuire can't get the roster funded by Cody Campbell to the CFP, he could be out of a job. Luckily, Texas Tech has far too much talent to drop another game if everyone is healthy. The Red Raiders' front seven should be the difference against Avery Johnson and Co., with pass rusher David Bailey playing at an elite level right now.

The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between Michigan State and Minnesota. And in the two most recent meetings in 2022 and 2023, the games have stayed under the projected total by nearly six points on average.

Since opening the season with two losses, Notre Dame has beaten down on every opponent on its schedule. Marcus Freeman's team is five more wins against unranked teams away from getting into the College Football Playoff, and Bill O'Brien's Boston College team isn't going to have any answers for CJ Carr, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price. The Eagles have lost seven straight games after opening the season with a win over Fordham, an FCS program. Perhaps hiring former NFL head coaches past their prime isn't the best move for college programs?

The Fighting Irish are 28.5-point favorites to beat Boston College, which means they should utilize Price plenty to spell lead back Jeremiyah Love. Price has scored multiple touchdowns in two of the four games Notre Dame won by 20-plus points, and had a first half touchdown in four of the last six games overall.

Indiana's Elijah Sarratt has a homecoming against Maryland, the in-state school that didn't offer him as a recruit coming out of Baltimore. Now he has a chance to add to his college football-leading 10 receiving TDs against a Terps team that's given up seven passing TDs in its last three games.

At this point, Indiana might not play a competitive football game until the Big Ten Championship. The Hoosiers have blown out every middling Big Ten opponent they've faced, and it shouldn't be much different against Maryland. Despite his impressive play, true freshman Malik Washington should be in over his head against Curt Cignetti's team. Indiana has held every opponent not named Oregon to 15 or fewer points this season. But Fernando Mendoza could take some time to get going against an underrated Terrapins front seven, led by freshman sensation Sidney Stewart.

Mendoza entered the last game against UCLA with 23 total touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 76.7% completion percentage over the previous six. Not much was needed of him in a 56-6 rout of UCLA last week, but he did still throw for three touchdowns on a modest 22 pass attempts.

Georgia's pass defense has struggled this season, with the Bulldogs sitting at No. 94 in EPA per pass on defense. Meanwhile, DJ Lagway is averaging 303.3 passing yards per game in SEC play. Billy Napier's firing shouldn't hurt Lagway's production much.

Florida running back Jadan Baugh is coming off a career-high 150 rushing yards against Mississippi State. I am making him a part of my best college football player props as I expect him to be a big beneficiary of the Gators’ new faster-paced offense under interim head coach Billy Gonzales.

Both of these defenses are allowing 20.0 or fewer points per game, while Florida's offense ranks 103rd in the nation in scoring.

While the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has one of the best rivalry game names in sports, the game itself hasn't been that good in recent years. Since Kirby Smart took over in Athens, Georgia is 7-2 against Florida and has won four straight matchups, all four of them by at least 14 points. That shouldn't change against a Florida team that just fired Billy Napier and is ranked No. 63 on offense by SP+. Gunner Stockton and Co. should beat Florida by more than a touchdown to extend the Bulldogs' ATS streak to 4-0 since the start of October. Florida is just 1-5 ATS against FBS opponents.

Virginia might be the luckiest team in the country at this point. The Cavaliers have gone to OT in three of their last four outings and won all three, including needing a failed 2-point attempt from North Carolina to beat Bill Belichick last week in overtime. During Tony Elliott's team's last four games, they've won by a combined 14 points. So don't expect a blowout win on the road against a feisty Cal team that has a supertsar freshman QB in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. The Hoos should fear the Calgorithm in this cross-country ACC battle.

Trinidad Chambliss has gone from D2 star to SEC Heisman contender. Coming off a shining performance against a top Oklahoma defense, Lane Kiffin's QB should continue to cook against a South Carolina defense that's No. 63 in EPA per pass. Chambliss is averaging 311.2 passing yards per game against SEC opponents.

South Carolina just doesn't have the sauce this season, and that was clear when LaNorris Sellers fumbled against Alabama to end the Gamecocks' upset shot. Now this demoralized team has to hit the road and head to the Grove to take on an Ole Miss team that controlled the entirety of its win over Oklahoma. Lane Kiffin's name is popping up for seemingly every major head coaching opening, but it doesn't matter because the Rebels have the most complete offense they've ever had under him. Trinidad Chambliss should add to his Heisman campaign, while Sellers continues to try and do too much to make up for a lack of surrounding talent.

Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS this season and has one of the best offenses in the country thanks to QB Trindidad Chambliss. The Rebels are ranked No. 10 on offense by SP+ and should have plenty of success against a South Carolina defense that's No. 63 in EPA per pass.

Sherrone Moore's team has rebounded nicely from its blowout loss to USC to take down Washington and Michigan State. With freshman QB Bryce Underwood, dynamic running back Justice Hanyes, and a ferocious defense, the Wolverines should go berserker mode on a Purdue team that is 0-6 against Power Four opponents and has lost to ranked teams by an average margin of 21. Michigan is trending toward being 10-2 when it plays Ohio State on Nov. 29.

Georgia Tech is at the top of the ACC standings right now, and though it plays Georgia to close out the season, its final three conference matchups aren't overly difficult (NC State, Boston College, Pittsburgh). A loss to the Bulldogs won't affect the Yellow Jackets' shot at the ACC Championship, either. But can Haynes King continue to put this team on his back every week? It might be a down season for the Wolfpack, but there's talent in Raleigh with players like CJ Bailey, Hollywood Smothers, and Justin Joly. Keep an eye on a potential upset here.

Tennessee's Chris Brazzell II has been a complete mismatch in the SEC with his 6-foot-5 frame and vertical speed. He leads the conference in receiving yards (741) and receiving TDs (8), and should be a problem for an Oklahoma defense that gave up 315 passing yards to Trinidad Chambliss last week.

Oklahoma clearly isn't as good as it looked during the first month of the season, with QB John Mateer struggling immensely since returning from thumb surgery. However, OU has a serious defense under Brent Venables, and R Mason Thomas is among the best pass rushers in the country. Tennessee is the polar opposite, with Josh Heupel's veer and shoot thriving with Joey Aguilar at the helm, but the Volunteers' defense looks horrendous. Neither of these teams is going to the College Football Playoff, but this is going to be one of the most fun matchups of the weekend.

The Sooners’ normally stout defense let Ole Miss convert on 9-of-21 third-down opportunities, but should see positive regression from that sense since the Rebels’ average distance to go was 6.3 yards. 

Oklahoma’s quarterback and running back tandem of John Mateer and Tory Blaylock have combined for 21 explosive runs, and the Sooners should have a big advantage in the trenches against a Volunteers defense that ranks outside the top 110 in Rush EPA allowed.

Brazell II’s eight touchdowns have come within the last seven games, and he only had two score-less games in that span. Thus, this is a great price on the SEC’s leading receiver in yards and touchdowns to find the endzone once again.

In an attempt to keep quarterback Joey Aguilar upright, I expect Tennessee to lean on its ground game with DeSean Bishop. Bishop has eclipsed this total in three of his last four games, and faces a Sooners defense that entered last week 13th in the SEC and 84th nationally in missed tackles.

Tennessee’s defense entered last week ranked much higher in EPA per rush allowed (86th) than EPA per pass allowed (116th). 

Those splits played out similarly in its win against Kentucky last week. The Volunteers allowed 34 points despite limiting the Wildcats to fewer than four yards per carry, as Kentucky threw for 330 yards while quarterback Cutter Boley finished with an 86.3 QBR.

Oklahoma has the best defense that Tennessee has seen this season; the Sooners are ranked No. 4 on offense by SP+. The only other top 15 defense that Tennessee has played, Alabama, it managed just 20 points against. Meanwhile, John Mateer should be able to do enough against a Vols' defense that's allowing the second-most PPG in the SEC (30.9).

Junior wideout Ja'Kobi Lane only has three touchdowns on the season, but he hit pay dirt in each of the last two games. That includes a 59-yard score at Notre Dame a week ago.

Yes, Lane's three scores are four fewer than fellow receiver Makai Lemon. But Lane's touchdown odds against Nebraska are far more enticing. Plus, Lane has one more touchdown in the last two weeks than Lemon.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has 17 touchdown tosses this year, but he did most of his damage early (11 TDs in the first four games).

Over the last four contests, Raiola has thrown for multiple scores just once — he had four against Maryland. His TD totals in the other three games: 1, 0 and 1.

Nebraska fields the nation's No. 2 pass defense, but the Cornhuskers have only faced one Top 50 quarterback. That was Maryland's Malik Washington, who ranks 36th — and who torched Nebraska for 249 yards (4 more than his per-game average).

USC's Jayden Maiava? He's the nation's third-leading passer, averaing more than 311 yards per game. Maiava has topped 280 yards five times in seven contests (including 328 at Notre Dame a week ago).

Nebraska’s quarterbacks collectively rank second in the country in completion percentage (behind Ohio State’s) at 74%. But lately, Raiola has been making his living on the intermediate passing game, as he has completed just 10% of his passes of 15 or more air yards over the last two games.

While the rumor mill keeps churning about Matt Rhule taking the head coaching job at his alma mater, Penn State, Nebraska continues to look unimpressive. The Cornhuskers are 0-4-1 ATS in Big Ten games this season, and are just a few weeks removed from getting blown out by a Minnesota team that just lost by 38 to Iowa. As for USC, it's poised to bounce back off a bye week after losing to Notre Dame in Week 8. The Trojans are ranked No. 1 in the country in offense by SP+ thanks to Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon, and have covered in two straight games against ranked teams.

Brendan Sorsby is tied with Heisman favorite Fernando Mendoza for the most total TDs in college football (27). The Cincinnati QB's legs will be key in a road matchup against a Utah team that's No. 104 in EPA per rush on defense. Sorsby has scored a rushing TD in six of eight games.