Vanderbilt vs. Texas Prediction & Opening Odds for College Football Week 10

As the race for the college football playoff heats up, I’m here to discuss my Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction by breaking down the opening odds as our early picks series continues. The matchup is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 1, at noon ET (ABC) from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas.

No. 20 Texas is a 1.5-point betting favorite over No. 9 Vanderbilt, but I like the road underdogs on the moneyline as part of our college football predictions for Week 10.

🏈 Early Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for Week 10.

⚓️ Vanderbilt ML (+105) ⭐⭐⭐

If you told me at the start of the season that Vanderbilt would be +105 to win outright in Austin – and that I would actually be paying that price – I would’ve called you crazy. But with last week’s injury to quarterback Arch Manning, who now must progress through the concussion protocol, that’s exactly where we are.

While Manning hasn’t been good, the falloff to backup Matthew Caldwell moves the needle for me. The spread for this game was Texas -3.5 before Manning’s injury, and I can’t get to the current number of Texas -1.5 with Caldwell under center.

Caldwell looked bad at Troy last year. His passing efficiency score of 135.9 ranked 65th, clearing the league average, but he wasn’t asked to do much in that offense. In his two appearances versus non-Sun Belt opponents, Memphis and Iowa, Caldwell posted a 122.2 on 40 pass attempts.

He now must take on a Vanderbilt defense that ranks a solid 50th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.9) but largely takes away opposing rushing attacks. The Commodores are in the top 10 for defensive line yards and rank 36th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.7).

Vanderbilt has the quarterback advantage with Diego Pavia under center, and I trust him to more than make up for the advantage Texas has defensively if Caldwell starts (as I suspect he will). Pavia ranks 20th in passing efficiency this year (159), up from his solid 38th-place ranking a year ago (143.5).

While the road matchup poses some issues, Pavia has gone on the road and won before in the SEC, and his career road passing efficiency score (143.7) still clears anything we’ve seen from Caldwell. Back Vanderbilt to win outright at +105 (48.8% implied probability) at BetMGM to score a $10.50 profit on a $10 bet.

📊 Live Vanderbilt vs. Texas odds: Week 10

See the latest college football odds for every game in Week 10.

🔢 Vanderbilt vs. Texas opening odds

• Moneyline: Vanderbilt +125 | Texas -150
• Spread: Vanderbilt +2.5 (-110) | Texas -2.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)

↔️ Vanderbilt vs. Texas line movement

After opening at Texas -2.5 this week – and at Texas -3.5 on the lookahead market last week – we’re already down to Texas -1.5. I expect the spread and moneyline to tighten as more action comes in on Vanderbilt, as skepticism of Arch Manning’s status mounts. The inverse would be true if good news comes in about the quarterback, but I’ll take my chances with an early bet.

The total opened at 45.5, and that’s right where it sits at nearly all of the best sports betting sites right now. I don’t foresee a ton of movement there, though I do expect the movement to correlate with the news about Manning’s status. If he plays, it should go up; if he sits, it should go down. 

📈 Vanderbilt vs. Texas trends & betting notes

• Vanderbilt is 15-6 ATS since the start of 2024, correlating with the arrival of quarterback Diego Pavia, the fourth-best mark over that span
• Texas is 2-6 ATS this season, bringing the Longhorns down to 30-32-1 ATS under head coach Steve Sarkisian
• Vanderbilt is 5-3 to the Under as a road team since 2024 and 2-1 to the Under on the road this year
• Texas is 18-11-1 to the Under as the home team since 2021 and 2-1 to the Under at home this year

📺 How to watch Vanderbilt vs. Texas

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
• TV: ABC