UTSA vs. South Florida Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview

My UTSA vs. South Florida prediction acknowledges the Roadrunners are coming off their most impressive win of the season against Tulane. But as part of our college football Week 11 predictions, I expect the Bulls to hold the advantage in this matchup given their home dominance.

As 14-point betting favorites, South Florida looks to improve its odds of reaching the American Conference Championship. This conference clash is one of two games on a Thursday night college football doubleheader, and it kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa (ESPN).

✅ UTSA vs. South Florida prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11.

📊 UTSA vs. South Florida odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 11.

🏈 UTSA vs. South Florida preview & score prediction

UTSA gave its conference championship hopes a significant boost with a dominant 48-26 home win as 5.5-point underdogs against Tulane last week. But the Roadrunners have been a poor road team thus far (1-3), and I expect South Florida to improve its home record to 5-0 while covering this large spread.

Don’t overreact to UTSA’s big win

While Tulane entered its game against UTSA at 6-1 with a strong claim to being a contender in the American, the metrics in hindsight show it was an overvalued favorite against UTSA.

The Green Wave came into that contest sitting outside the top 100 in EPA per rush, which was a massive reason why they were behind the chains often on early downs (the team ranks outside the top 70 in early-down success). Additionally, Tulane’s defense ranked 125th in EPA per pass allowed.

Tulane didn't help itself while committing three first-half turnovers and missing a field goal, and that was largely responsible for UTSA’s 31 unanswered points before halftime.

Meanwhile, South Florida is 4-1-1 against the spread as a home favorite since the start of last season, and the team covered during its only game coming off a loss this year. It's also won five consecutive home matchups by an average of 34 points. Then there's UTSA, which is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road outings against non-AP-ranked teams.

I'm heading to BetMGM to take advantage of its -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds while backing South Florida to cover -14. Many of the other best sports betting sites are a half-point higher than the key number at -14.5. At that -110 price, a $10 wager would net $9.09 in profit if the Bulls cover.

Score prediction: South Florida 44, UTSA 27

🆚 UTSA vs. South Florida matchup to watch

Byrum Brown vs. UTSA's secondary

Byrum Brown is the only FBS quarterback with at least 17 passing and eight rushing touchdowns this season. He's a significant reason why the Bulls boast the sixth-ranked scoring offense, and why they've totaled 30-plus points in six games this season.

However, the main reason for backing the Under on Brown’s 2.5 passing touchdowns is South Florida’s recent success running the football. The Bulls rank 11th nationally in rushing, and they've totaled 250-plus rushing yards in five consecutive games. 

South Florida should lean on its running game against a UTSA defense that entered last week 28th in EPA per pass but 106th in defending the run. 

FanDuel’s -114 odds carry a 53.27% implied probability, and we would net $8.77 in profit on a $10 wager if Brown finishes with two or fewer passing touchdowns.

Best prop bet: Byrum Brown Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 UTSA vs. South Florida betting trends

🌤️ UTSA vs. South Florida weather

There will be beautiful conditions in Tampa on Thursday night, with temperatures in the mid 60s and just a 9% chance of precipitation. Wind will not be a factor either, with gusts topping out at 8 mph.

📺 How to watch UTSA vs. South Florida

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 6
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN