Utah vs. Oregon Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Can Ducks Shake Off Loss?
The Oregon Ducks lost 37-34 at home to Washington last week and now visit the Utah Utes looking to bounce back. Can the Ducks rebound against the hard-charging Utes? Check out our top Utah-Oregon college football picks.
Oregon and Utah face off this weekend with a potential spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game on the line. Which side will hand the other its second conference loss?
Here are our Utah-Oregon college football picks for Week 12 (odds via FanDuel and DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 12.
Utah vs. Oregon Game Info
Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Weather: 35 degrees, 0% Precipitation, 1-mph winds
Utah vs. Oregon Odds
Utah vs. Oregon Odds Analysis
The line opened with Oregon as a 3-point home favorite and has remained there at DraftKings (-105) and FanDuel (-110). At the time of this writing, 75% of the public money has been wagered on the Ducks.
The total opened at 62 points and has risen to 62.5 (-110) at FanDuel and 63 (-115o) at DraftKings.
Utah vs. Oregon Picks
Utah vs. Oregon ATS Pick
Oregon -3 (-105) ★★★
Oregon is 4-1 ATS at home, while the Utes are 1-3 ATS as a road team with outright losses at Florida and UCLA. Both of Utah’s outright road wins were against opponents outside the top 40 in ESPN’s Football Power Index. The only two road games against teams ranked inside the top 30 in FPI were ultimately losses for the Utes.
Oregon ranks No. 13 in FPI and has the No. 4 offensive efficiency in FBS. The Ducks fell to Washington at home last week as Oregon’s pass defense, which ranks dead-last in FBS in yards per game, spoiled the day for the Ducks against the prolific Washington passing attack.
Utah’s 53rd-ranked passing offense could certainly exploit Oregon’s pass defense in a similar way, but it’s the advantage Oregon’s offense possesses over Utah’s defense that I believe gives the edge to the Ducks. Though Utah’s defense ranks 20th in efficiency, we simply haven’t seen the Utes stack up favorably to elite offenses on the other side.
Utah vs. Oregon O/U Pick
Over 62.5 (-110) ★★★
The Ducks have averaged 47 points per game at Autzen Stadium this season and they have not scored below 34 points in a single home game this year. Though Utah’s defense has allowed an average of only 21.4 points per game on the season, its efforts against elite offenses have been less impressive.
Utah’s most comparable road game to the challenge to Oregon was a 42-32 loss at UCLA. The Utes also allowed 42 points in a home win over USC. Those two contests, plus the 29-26 Florida loss, were the only three times the Utes have faced a top-20 offensive efficiency this season.
The Utes’ No. 15 offensive efficiency will push this Oregon defense, especially through the air. For its part, Oregon will maintain its trend of scoring at least into the mid-30s at home. The Over is 4-1 in Oregon home games this season.
Utah vs. Oregon Prop Pick
Nix Over 34.5 rushing yards (-115) ★★★★
Bo Nix has run for at least 30 yards in eight of Oregon’s 10 games, meaning the QB has been consistently within range of this DraftKings yardage total. Nix has eight straight games with at least six rushing attempts and has averaged 6.6 yards per carry on the ground this season.
Utah allows just 130.2 rushing yards per game (T-37th in FBS). However, mobile quarterbacks have had some success against the Utes, with Caleb Williams of USC logging an eight-carry, 57-yard day against them last month. Florida’s Anthony Richardson also memorably rumbled for over 100 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Utah.
FanDuel does not currently offer a line on Nix’s rushing yards, but it might be worth checking back later in the week for that site’s player props to post before finalizing this wager.
Where to Bet on Utah vs. Oregon Picks
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Utah-Oregon picks made 11/16/2022 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
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