Utah vs. Florida Week 1 College Football Picks: Can the Gators Top Tough Pac-12 Foe in The Swamp?

College football Week 1 picks Utah vs Florida on September 3. The Gators are in tough against the rising Utes.

Henry John

Last updated: September 8, 2022 5:24 PM EDT • 5 min read

The Utes may enter the season with a shiny No. 7 ranking in the AP Poll, but oddsmakers initially pegged the unranked Gators as a slight home favorite. Following a significant line move in Utah’s favor, how wary should bettors be of laying the points? Let's examine the matchup in our Utah-Florida picks.

One of the most highly anticipated games on the Week 1 college football schedule is a prime-time battle between the Utah Utes and Florida Gators.

Last season was a historic one for Utah's football program. The Utes started out 1-2 before rattling off nine wins over their next 10 games. The last of those victories secured the first Pac-12 conference title in school history. Kyle Whittingham’s squad went blow-for-blow with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl before suffering a three-point defeat.

While Utah seemed to get better as the 2021 season progressed, the opposite was true for Florida. The Gators jumped out to a 3-1 start, and they only lost to mighty Alabama by two points. The season unraveled from there, leading to an overhaul of the program. New head coach Billy Napier has been tasked with restoring Florida to national contender status.

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 1 matchup between Utah and Florida. (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale)

Utah vs. Florida Game Info

Date: Saturday, Sept. 3, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Weather: 84 degrees, 90.5% chance of precipitation, 5-10-mph winds blowing east

Utah vs. Florida Odds Analysis

Florida is an unranked team going up against a top-10 opponent. But the Gators still opened as a small favorite for Saturday’s contest. The initial spread of Florida -1.5 is now long gone. Utah is the consensus three-point favorite.

The ticket count disparities and percentages at DraftKings provide some solid insight into why this spread has been moving so much. Not only are the Utes attracting 69% of all bets against the spread, but they're also drawing 74% of the total handle.

Meanwhile, the total has come down slightly after opening up at 52.5. While the current market consensus sits at 51.5, bettors can find this line listed up to one full point lower at select sportsbooks. Despite that move, 80% of all bets and the handle wagered at DraftKings are on the Over.

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Utah vs. Florida Picks

Utah vs. Florida Predictions

Florida +2.5 (-110) ★★

Since opening, the point spread has swung through pick’em and all the way up to a field-goal margin in favor of Utah. Finally, we're starting to see some signs of a possible buyback on Florida catching three points. That's reflected in the odds being juiced to -115 at all major sportsbooks offering the spread at 3.

Throughout the leadup to the college football season, much has been made regarding Utah possibly maintaining an outside chance at sneaking into the College Football Playoff.

Saturday night’s game will serve as a true litmus test for how one of the Pac-12’s best teams stacks up against the country's top conference. Florida may have collapsed in the second half of 2021, but the Gators possess plenty of talent. They'll benefit from 13 total starters returning, including dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson. His ability to extend plays using while scrambling should perfectly fit into Billy Napier’s offense.

Utah was largely able to physically dominate its Pac-12 competition in 2021. Florida may not own the best offensive and defensive lines in the SEC, but the team is certainly on par with or better than most Pac-12 squads.

Expect the Gators to hang tough in The Swamp. Taking a stab on Florida through its moneyline at +125 odds could also be a worthwhile play, as an outright upset is hardly out of the question.

Under 51.5 (-110) ★★

When we last saw Utah, the school was engaged in a Rose Bowl shootout with Ohio State. That contest highlighted what Cameron Rising and the Utes’ offense is capable of now, but the team's defense was exposed in a big way.

Fortunately for Utah, the Florida offense it will face on Saturday night packs nowhere close to the same kind of punch as the Buckeyes. That's key because the Utes lost five defensive starters over the offseason. One of those departures was linebacker Devin Lloyd, arguably the greatest defensive player in program history.

While the outlook overall is positive for Florida and how the holdovers will take to Napier’s run-heavy system, it's reasonable to expect a few growing pains early in the season. It will be critical for UF to hold its own defensively on Saturday. The Gators appear capable of doing so while leaning on their uber-talented secondary and improved linebacker corps.

Florida's most significant defensive weakness is a lack of depth along the line. It would hardly be surprising to see the Utes force feed running back Tavion Thomas early and often on Saturday.

Both teams likely being content to lean on offensive lines and rushing attacks leads to an Under-friendly game script. Combine that with the defensive talent each side possesses, and there's a solid argument to fade the more popular Over in favor of following the line move.

First-quarter total: Under 11.5 (-120) ★★★

The same game script also favors taking the Under on the first quarter total of 11.5.

This line essentially affords us one touchdown and one field goal. Even a flukey two-point conversion following a touchdown would not be enough for the first-quarter Over to hit.

It’s difficult to envision many extended drives playing out with both offenses likely focused on running, especially in the first quarter.

The Gainesville weather forecast is another element to consider, as the chance of rain is high. It's tough to project how much the forecasted storms could impact the game. But Under bettors will benefit if the weather leads to sloppy conditions.

Where to Bet on Utah-Florida Picks

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Utah-Florida picks made 9/1/2022 at 1:22 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.