College Football Championship Futures: Using Blue-Chip Ratio to Find the Best Teams to Bet
Success in college football is as much about talent acquisition as it is X's and O's and development, if not more.
That's why for over a decade, CBS's Bud Elliott has been tracking which teams can actually win it all through his Blue-Chip Ratio metric. And we can take advantage of it by determining which programs to bet college football championship futures on.
Recruiting is king, even in the transfer portal era, and recent history has shown that if a roster isn't made up of at least 50% blue-chip recruits, a squad isn't winning the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of the programs atop the college football championship odds are the ones with the highest Blue-Chip Ratio.
Just because a team boasts the highest Blue-Chip Ratio doesn't mean it's guaranteed to win it all. But it's safe to assume most of these teams will rule the College Football Playoff odds across our best college football betting sites for most of the season.
That's why looking at the recent champions, and their accompanying Blue-Chip Ratio, we can make some assumptions to narrow down which teams are worth betting on in 2024.
Blue-Chip Ratio of past national champions
| Year | Championship winner | Blue-Chip Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Michigan | 54% |
| 2022 | Georgia | 77% |
| 2021 | Georgia | 80% |
| 2020 | Alabama | 83% |
| 2019 | LSU | 64% |
| 2018 | Clemson | 68% |
| 2017 | Alabama | 80% |
| 2016 | Clemson | 52% |
| 2015 | Alabama | 77% |
| 2014 | Ohio State | 68% |
| 2013 | Florida State | 53% |
| 2012 | Alabama | 71% |
| 2011 | Alabama | 71% |
The 13 national champions since Elliott began tracking this have never posted a Blue-Chip Ratio of under 52%, with the average champ being at 69%. The first thing you need to understand when looking at this is that not all programs are built equally.
While Georgia and Alabama - the two best programs of the last decade-and-a-half - pull in five-star recruits as frequently as Dabo Swinney says he's against paying players, it's not as if you need to be over 70% in this metric. But there's a caveat.
You can be under 70% with a stud head coach or quarterback
Swinney's Clemson program, Jimbo Fisher's Florida State, and Jim Harbaugh's Michigan all shared a few things in common after winning the title with a Blue-Chip Ratio under 60%. At the time of winning, each was considered one of the best coaches in the world on top of boasting a future first-round pick at QB.
A dominant QB and a proven track record for developing hidden gems can really bolster your chances of winning it all. But even still, your roster needs to be over 50%. Maybe a team with an elite QB and a Blue-Chip Ratio in the 40th percentile will bust this theory in the coming years. But the quarterback can clearly be the difference between a roster around 50% beating a roster around 70%.
Even the three teams below 70% to raise the trophy either came with a Hall of Fame coach or a No. 1 pick at quarterback. Clemson was blessed with both Swinney and Trevor Lawrence in 2018, LSU benefitted from Joe Burrow putting together arguably the greatest single season in the history of the sport, and Ohio State had Urban Meyer, plus Ezekiel Elliott running wild.
Not only do all of these teams come with a Blue-Chip Ratio of 52% or better, each either had a first-round pick at QB (a few of which won the Heisman) or a head coach with a proven track record at that program, or both.
Keeping that in mind, it eliminates a few of this year's teams over the 52% threshold.
Highest Blue-Chip Ratio in the country this season
| School | Blue-Chip Ratio |
|---|---|
| Ohio State | 90% |
| Alabama | 88% |
| Georgia | 80% |
| Texas A&M | 79% |
| Oregon | 76% |
| Oklahoma | 73% |
| Texas | 72% |
| LSU | 70% |
| Notre Dame | 67% |
| Clemson | 64% |
| Florida | 64% |
| Miami | 61% |
| Penn State | 61% |
| USC | 59% |
| Michigan | 56% |
| Auburn | 53% |
First-year head coaches don't win it all
Right off the bat we can eliminate three. The last time a head coach in his first season at a program won the national title, Kurt Warner was winning MVPs with the Greatest Show on Turf. Not since Larry Coker in 2001 at Miami has a head coach in his first year at a school won it all.
So even though Kalen DeBoer inherits one of the most talent-rich rosters with a Heisman candidate at QB, I don't expect this to be the first season in over two decades that a first-year head coach wins the title. So that eliminates Alabama, Texas A&M, and Michigan.
No team under 70% has the stuff this year
Next, I think it's safe to assume we can eliminate every team below 70%.
Remember, the only head coaches to win with a Blue-Chip Ratio under 70% are Hall of Fame level (Meyer, Swinney, Harbaugh) or had a Heisman-winning No. 1 pick at QB (Fisher, Ed Orgeron).
Not to be that guy, but does anyone think Hugh Freeze (Auburn), James Franklin (Penn State), Mario Cristobal (Miami), Billy Napier (Florida), or Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame) is a transcendent coach capable of winning a title with a roster below 70%? And none of them trot out a QB with shorter than 20/1 Heisman Trophy odds.
And I'm going to go out on a limb here and bet that even if you think Lincoln Riley is a future Hall of Fame head coach, the guy isn't winning it all as a new member of the Big Ten with Miller Moss as his QB. I mean, he couldn't do that when he was in the Pac-12 with Caleb Williams.
As for Swinney, his refusal to utilize the transfer portal has led to a decline since winning the natty in 2019. He went 9-4 in 2023, his worst record since 2010, and I don't think Cade Klubnik is turning into Lawrence or Deshaun Watson.
Don't trust Texas, Oklahoma, or LSU
We've gone from 16 teams that technically hold enough talent to win it all to just six. Of those six, I have major questions for three.
Texas is a team I've strongly pushed back against going into the season. While Quinn Ewers could take that step into being a first-round pick, he was nowhere near the level of last year's top QBs.
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., and Bo Nix all completed at least 20 big-time throws in 2023, according to PFF. Ewers finished with just 16.
Five of them also ended the year with an ADOT of at least 9.2 while Ewers' was just 8.4. Nix is the outlier of the group with an ADOT of 6.8, but he led the country in adjusted completion percentage as a result (85.5%). He also probably shouldn't have been a first-round pick, but Sean Payton does what he wants.
More concerning is the fact that Texas lost its top five pass-catchers from last season, including its leading rusher, plus two All-American defensive tackles. To make matters worse, new starting running back CJ Baxter tore his ACL recently.
I don't think Ewers and Steve Sarkisian can overcome all of these losses while moving to the SEC. They'll be in the playoff, but I just can't see them winning it all.
As for Oklahoma and LSU, both come with respected head coaches who haven't shown enough to build confidence in their ability to win a title with the structure of current rosters. Both also are tied to new starting quarterbacks.
For the Sooners, they're making the jump to the SEC and rank just 111th in returning production on offense. Can sophomore QB Jackson Arnold really lead OU to its first title since 2000 in an offense with so much turnover?
It's an even tougher situation for the Tigers. For one, has anybody ever confidently bet on Brian Kelly to win a title?
He's won double-digit games for seven straight seasons between LSU and Notre Dame, but I can't say I'd trust him to get over the hump the season after he lost his Heisman winner at QB and two first-round wide receivers. The team's defense was bad last year, too, ranking 52nd in SP+.
That leaves us with three legitimate options. It's chalky and I'm sorry for that, but I'd rather be boring and right than zany and wrong.
Best bets to win CFP National Championship based on Blue-Chip Ratio
Ohio State (+400)
No team has more talent than Ohio State with its 90% Blue-Chip Ratio.
Not only did Ryan Day manage to bring back several key players who would have been top 100 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he also landed three top-10 players in the transfer portal and the No. 1 recruit in the country (Jeremiah Smith).
I can understand being weary of the Buckeyes given Day's inability to beat Michigan for three straight years. However, Harbaugh and the core pieces that made the Wolverines champions are gone, and this year's roster is arguably the best Day has ever put together.
He's also clearly one of the nation's top coaches - Day only lost to Georgia in the CFP by one point in 2022 after all - and now the most significant thorn in his side is gone.
Offense has never been an issue under Day, and Chip Kelly is his OC now. Kansas State transfer Will Howard is also a massive upgrade over Kyle McCord.
At Kansas State, Howard accounted for 33 total touchdowns and was one of just 17 power conference QBs with an ADOT of 9.2-plus and 14 or fewer turnover-worthy plays. Now he gets to play for a coach who has helped three of his last four QBs become Heisman finalists.
Even if Howard isn't a high-level NFL prospect, all he needs to be is competent with the players around him.
There are five potential top-100 picks on the Buckeyes' offense in wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, left tackle Josh Simmons, left guard Donovan Jackson, and running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Plus budding stars in underclassmen like Smith and Carnell Tate.
But what really pushes the Buckeyes over the top is their defense. Ohio State was second in SP+ last season under Jim Knowles and the unit brings back nine starters. Among those returning players are double-digit potential draft picks, including Tyleik Williams, Jack Sawyer, and JT Tuimoloau on the defensive line.
Day also added the No. 1 player in the portal in defensive back Caleb Downs from Alabama. He's arguably the best player on the team and a potential top-10 pick in 2026.
Ohio State's fate hinges on Howard playing up to his potential and Day overcoming Michigan. But this is the most talented team in the country on paper. A $10 winning bet on the Buckeyes pays a $40 profit.
Best odds: +400 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 20%
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Georgia (+300)
Does this one even need an explanation? Kirby Smart has won two of the last three national championships, and while last year's team didn't make the College Football Playoff, it still finished No. 1 in the country in SP+.
Now with the expanded playoff, if the Bulldogs somehow slip up again in the SEC Championship, there's no way they'll be left out. In fact, they're such a sure thing that their odds to make the CFP are as short as -600, which pays just $1.67 on a $10 winning bet.
As we know, having a roster with a 70% Blue-Chip Ratio is key. But even if Georgia didn't, you could argue it's still a smart bet to win it all. The Bulldogs check the boxes of having a Hall of Fame coach and a likely first-round pick at quarterback.
Carson Beck isn't just a Heisman favorite, but he's one of just two players with shorter than 5/1 2025 NFL Draft odds to be the No. 1 pick. He may not come with the same buzz as past No. 1 picks like Williams, Bryce Young, or Trevor Lawrence, but Beck is the real deal.
He was one of only five quarterbacks in the country to finish with an adjusted completion percentage over 78% with an ADOT of 8.5 or better and 12 or fewer turnover-worthy plays last season. The other QBs were McCarthy, Daniels, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel.
With Beck behind center, Georgia should field the most potent passing attack of the Smart era. The Bulldogs have plenty of weapons too, including wide receivers Dillon Bell and Dominic Lovett, tight ends Oscar Delp and Ben Yurosek, and running back Trevor Etienne.
Stick all that behind an offensive line with three potential top-100 picks in Tate Ratledge, Earnest Greene III, and Dylan Fairchild, and every SEC defense should be scared.
Speaking of defense, that remains Smart's calling card, and Georgia should be even better after finishing fifth in SP+ last year.
There are several likely top-100 picks on Georgia's defense, with pass-rusher Mykel Williams and safety Malaki Starks leading the way. Both are potential All-Americans, and fellow former five-star recruits surround them.
Smart has landed a top-two recruiting class in three of the last four years, including the top class in 2024, which is why Georgia is one of just three teams with an 80%-plus Blue-Chip Ratio. That also means there's more NFL talent bound to emerge on a team already full of it.
At this price, a $10 winning bet on the Bulldogs pays a $30 profit, which is why I prefer the Buckeyes slightly more.
Best odds: +300 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 25%
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Oregon (+800)
Oregon might play on the West Coast and be joining the Big Ten, but Dan Lanning runs this program like he's in the Deep South and has Larry from Opelika calling the Paul Finebaum show begging for him to be fired any time he loses a game.
Lanning has quickly turned the Ducks into one of the most talented teams in the country thanks to his relentless recruiting on top of his dominance in the transfer portal. While recruiting is what has given Oregon a 76% Blue-Chip Ratio, it's actually Lanning's work in the portal that has me quacking.
Under Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein, Nix's image was rehabbed from the YOLO QB we saw at Auburn into an efficient passer who ended up going 12th overall in the draft.
Now Oregon is deploying Gabriel at QB after he was just one of two quarterbacks in the country to put up an ADOT over 10 and an adjusted completion percentage above 78% last season at Oklahoma.
Gabriel is also the most experienced quarterback in the country with nearly 15,000 passing yards, and he joins an offense that was first in SP+ last season. The Ducks return 1,000-plus-yard receiver Tez Johnson, one of the best tight ends in the country in Terrance Ferguson, two potential top-100 picks at offensive tackle, and a rising running back in Jordan James.
To make them even more dangerous, Lanning added the No. 5 player in the transfer portal, wide receiver Evan Stewart (Texas A&M).
And just like his mentors, Smart and Nick Saban, Lanning is a defensive coach who has loaded up on blue-chip recruits and star transfers.
The Ducks were 16th in SP+ on defense last year and should be even better this year with Jordan Burch, Matayo Uiagalelei, and Jeffrey Bassa leading one of the country's best front sevens.
And while the secondary is losing a lot from last season, Lanning - with Phil Knight's help - was dropping the bag to reload it via the portal.
The Ducks added transfers Jabbar Muhammad (Washington), Kam Alexander (UTSA), Kobe Savage (Kansas State), and Brandon Johnson (Duke) to build one of the most talented back ends in the country.
Obviously, Oregon faces a few more questions than Ohio State and Georgia as the Ducks move to the Big Ten, but this price makes it worth the risk. A $10 bet winning bet pays an $80 profit.
Best odds: +800 via bet365 | Implied probability: 11.11%
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