UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction & Opening Odds for College Football Mountain West Conference Championship

The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels and Boise State Broncos meet in the Mountain West Championship Game for the third straight year, and I offer my best UNLV vs. Boise State prediction based on the opening odds. Friday's kickoff from the blue turf of Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, is set for 8 p.m. ET (FOX).

Boise State was bet up as high as a 3.5-point favorite, but my early picks as part of the college football Conference Championship week predictions like UNLV to stay within the number. 

Early UNLV vs. Boise State prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for Conference Championship Week.

UNLV +3.5 (-122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There is no denying Boise State’s dominance of this rivalry, beating UNLV 10 straight times since 1977, including every meeting as members of the Mountain West Conference. But UNLV has a chance to exact sweet revenge on the Broncos, who are leaving the conference next year, after losing the last two championship games by an average of 19 points.

Computers were used to set up this championship matchup, as UNLV and Boise State were two of four teams tied with 6-2 league records. But the Runnin’ Rebels were selected in large part because of outstanding recent SP+ numbers, ranking 41st to Boise State’s 55th.

The Broncos were lucky to even be in consideration for this game, as their 25-24 come-from-behind win over Utah State last week had the fifth-lowest postgame win expectancy for any team that was victorious (28%).

UNLV has won four straight games, and I am backing it at +3.5 because of its ability to get off the field. The Runnin’ Rebels' defense entered last week limiting opponents to fewer than 35% third-down conversions, and improved upon that by holding Nevada to just 3-of-13 on third down.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a line better than the key number of three, making it worth paying up slightly for the -122 price at 54.95% implied odds. If UNLV covers, my $10 winning wager would net $8.20 in profits.

Live UNLV vs. Boise State odds: Mountain West Conference Championship

See the latest college football odds for every game in Conference Championship Week.

UNLV vs. Boise State opening odds

• Moneyline: UNLV +105 | Boise State -130
• Spread: UNLV +1.5 (-105) | Boise State -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

UNLV vs. Boise State line movement

Within hours of this line being posted on Sunday morning, Boise State was bet up from -1.5 as high as -3.5, with most of the best sports betting apps landing on the key number of three. Respected money must have come in early for oddsmakers to move the line that much that quickly, which suggests it would take a heap of UNLV support to bring this line under the key number again.

The O/U has already ticked down from 57.5 to 56.5 at DraftKings despite 88% of the money being placed on the Over. Bettors should continue to monitor the weather for potential impacts on the total, as early forecasts call for a 60% chance of precipitation. 

Weather alone should be a big reason why this total is not likely to get back higher than the opening number of 57.5.

UNLV vs. Boise State trends & betting notes

• Boise State has won 10 straight head-to-head matchups against UNLV
• The Broncos have beaten UNLV in the last two Mountain West Conference Championships by scores of 21-7 and 44-20
• Something has to give, as UNLV has covered five of six games as the road team this year, while Boise State is 5-1 ATS at home
• The Over has cashed in five of the Broncos’ six games at Albertsons Stadium

How to watch UNLV vs. Boise State

• Date: Friday, Dec. 5
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
• TV: FOX