UCLA vs. Stanford Free College Football Picks for Week 4

After a loss to Fresno State, can UCLA rebound and win their first Pac-12 game against Stanford? Let's see the NCAAF odds.

UCLA Bruins vs. Stanford Cardinal 

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 06:00 PM EDT at Stanford Stadium

The UCLA Bruins started the season 2-0 with big wins against Hawaii and LSU, however, all the fun came to an abrupt stop after a loss to Fresno State, at home, 40-37. Meanwhile, Stanford has responded well after a 24-7 loss to Kansas State opening day. They’ve now defeated USC and Vanderbilt by double digits and will look to upset UCLA at home in their first Pac-12 matchup of the season.

UCLA is averaging 40.3 points per game and has put together their best offensive start in a long time. Thanks to head coach Chip Kelly, there’s reason to believe that the Bruins can compete in the Pac-12 this season. While pass protection hasn’t been great, the arm and legs of Dorian Thompson-Robinson have been. The senior quarterback has thrown for 668 yards along with seven touchdowns and just one interception.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpe55vxoOzc

He has also rushed 29 times for 88 yards and has rushed for double-digit yards at least once in every game. He’s been surprising this year along with his running back mate and transfer, Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet transferred out of Michigan to come to UCLA and has six touchdowns on just 23 attempts this season. He’s rushed for 242 yards and 10.5 yards per carrying. The former Michigan product chose to come back home and play for his hometown team and it’s paying off.

Defensively, UCLA has missed plenty of tackles and doesn't have the best pass rush. However, the coverage has done fine along with the rush defense, holding opponents to just 63 yards on the ground per game this season. On the other hand, Stanford’s defense will struggle to hold Charbonnet in check. The defense has allowed 210.7 yards per game on the ground through three games and that’s not a good sign going into a game against UCLA.

https://twitter.com/zachcharbon/status/1355617688664436737

UCLA should absolutely destroy on the ground against a brutal rush defense for Stanford. Stanford has shown solid coverage down the field on defense so you can expect UCLA to have a game plan with the majority of plays being a run. Offensively, Tanner McKee has thrown for five touchdowns and no interceptions for Stanford. He’s got an 88.1 QBR and is one of the top quarterbacks in the league in that category. Still, the pass protection has been far from excellent and he doesn’t have nearly as much talent as UCLA does on offense.

Prediction

The one major area where Stanford struggles on defense is on the ground. They’re allowing over 200 yards on the ground through three games this season. UCLA has plenty of impactful rushers and an offensive line that has performed in the run game this season.

Tanner McKee #18 of the Stanford Cardinal. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Stanford might be able to force an interception or two if they force Thompson-Robinson to throw the ball on a third-down but for the most part, you can expect UCLA to run right through Stanford in this game. For my NCAAF picks, I’ll take UCLA -5.5 in this one. I’m expecting better defense from UCLA in this one and trust the offense to score plenty of points.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.