Texas vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Today: College Football Week 1 Best Bets
My Texas vs. Ohio State prediction digs into this afternoon's rematch of last year's Cotton Bowl - and I'm expecting the defending national champions to hand Arch Manning and the Longhorns another loss. Kickoff from Ohio Stadium in Columbus is at noon ET (FOX).
While many college football picks are backing Texas behind Manning madness, it's helped Buckeye bettors with this game as Ohio State now sits as a 1-point betting favorite after opening as a 3-point favorite.
In what's considered the biggest game on the slate, my college football predictions for Week 1 take a contrarian approach by fading Manning.
🏈 Texas vs. Ohio State expert picks & predictions
College football expert picks made Friday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Ohio State (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Ohio State PK (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Texas vs. Ohio State preview & best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🌰 Ohio State PK (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
These are the two teams atop the college football championship odds, with the Buckeyes coming off their first title of the Ryan Day era and Manning having the Longhorns No. 1 in the preseason top 25. But for as talented as Texas is this season, especially on defense, it's the Buckeyes who are the top team according to SP+ and one of just three squads to be top eight on both offense and defense.
Though the Buckeyes lost both coordinators from their championship run and a plethora of key starters to the NFL, Day's team doesn't lack talent. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs are arguably the best players in the country, and new starting QB Julian Sayin was a five-star recruit, like Manning, and is a former Elite 11 MVP.
Ohio State (89%) has a higher blue-chip ratio than Texas (78%), and both teams rank outside the top 80 in returning production - that includes Texas being just No. 109 in returning offensive production. So while Manning is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, it's a big ask to have him carry a Longhorns team on the road against the defending champions with four new starting offensive linemen and its three top pass-catchers from last year gone.
With this being a pick'em, Ohio State only has a 51.22% probability of winning, but if the Buckeyes do win, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit. Day has lost just 10 of his 80 games as bench boss in Columbus.
Philip Wood doesn't pick a side, but he likes it to be a low-scoring affair as outlined in his Texas vs. Ohio State parlay picks and predictions.
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💰 Best Texas vs. Ohio State player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Arch Manning Under 238.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
The Manning buzz makes sense. He's part of the greatest QB dynasty in the history of football, was the No. 1 recruit coming out of Isidore Newman, and tore it up in limited time last season. And while Manning being among the favorites to go No. 1 by the 2026 NFL Draft odds is based on projection, we've never actually seen him play against a quality defense.
Of his 95 career pass attempts, 72 of them (76%) came last season against UTSA, UL Monroe, and Mississippi State - those three defenses finished 98th or worse in SP+. I'm not saying Manning will flounder against the Buckeyes, but I question his ability to torch a defense that has a half-dozen potential All-Americans, led by Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles.
The Buckeyes held opponents to 167 passing yards last season, which included limiting College Football Playoff QBs like Drew Allar, Kurtis Rourke, and Nico Iamaleava under 200 yards. The other factor is Texas having two talented running backs to lean on in Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter. While Mike Spector doesn't get into his passing yard totals, he likes Manning's Under on total passing attempts in his Texas vs. Ohio State player props.
If you're taking the Under on Manning's passing yards, bet365 is the place to do it, with other books listing the line two yards lower (236.5). If the Buckeyes can hold Manning to fewer than 239 yards - there's a 53.49% probability they will - a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
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📊 Texas vs. Ohio State odds: Week 1
College football odds update live in real time.
📈 Texas vs. Ohio State betting odds analysis
Given that Ohio State is coming off a national championship and has home-field advantage, the Buckeyes opened as favored by as many as 3.5 points in May. However, that number dropped to -2.5 in August and has continued to drop as the public backs Manning and Texas, sitting at -1 as of Saturday morning.
Circa even reported that a bettor wagered $550,000 on the Longhorns, which briefly moved them from +1 to -1. This game will likely to hover in this range until kickoff.
🔢 Texas vs. Ohio State stats (2024)
Season stats courtesy of sports-reference.com.
| Texas (13-3) | Statistic (per game) | Ohio State (14-2) |
|---|---|---|
| 33.0 | Points | 35.7 |
| 15.3 | Points allowed | 12.9 |
| +0.3 | Turnover margin | +0.2 |
| 278.8 | Passing yards | 263.0 |
| 158.8 | Rushing yards | 166.4 |
| 173.8 | Passing yards allowed | 167.0 |
| 109.6 | Rushing yards allowed | 87.6 |
| 1.8 | Net yards per play | 2.7 |
🚑 Texas vs. Ohio State injuries
🔮 Texas vs. Ohio State expert picks
- Texas vs. Ohio State anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Texas vs. Ohio State parlay picks
- Texas vs. Ohio State player prop bets
- Texas vs. Ohio State prediction
📺 Texas vs. Ohio State game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 30
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
- How to watch: FOX
❓ Texas vs. Ohio State FAQs
Who is favored to win Texas vs. Ohio State?
The Buckeyes are a 1.5-point betting favorite, but the line has seen serious movement with Texas vs. Ohio State now a pick'em at a few sportsbooks.
What is the spread for Texas vs. Ohio State?
Depending on the sportsbook, Ohio State is -1.5; however, some books have this game as a pick'em.
What is the Over/Under for Texas vs. Ohio State?
The Over/Under for Texas vs. Ohio State is between 47 and 47.5.
What are the best bets for Texas vs. Ohio State?
My best bets for Texas vs. Ohio State are Ohio State to win (-105) and Arch Manning Under 237.5 passing yards.
When is the Texas vs. Ohio State game?
Texas vs. Ohio State is slated for Saturday, Aug. 30, at noon ET (FOX) from Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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