Texas vs. Arkansas Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 12

We're offering our top Texas vs. Arkansas prediction for their Week 12 showdown, with the Longhorns serving as big two-touchdown favorites.

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 15, 2024 9:18 AM EST • 5 min read

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers looks to pass the ball during the Longhorns' game against the Florida Gators, and we offer our Texas vs. Arkansas prediction. — Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers looks to pass the ball during the Longhorns' game against the Florida Gators. Photo by Mikala Compton/American-Statesman via USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images.

The Texas Longhorns look to improve their College Football Playoff odds as road favorites in Week 12 against the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Texas has covered once and won just two of its last seven games outright against Arkansas
The Longhorns have some of the best college football championship odds of any team in the country
Arkansas is 1-4 against ranked teams this season

Our Texas vs. Arkansas prediction expects the Longhorns to be wary of the Razorbacks’ upset potential, and to make a statement for the College Football Playoff committee in a convincing win.

Texas is a 13.5-point road favorite in a game that has an O/U of 57.5 points. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ABC/ESPN+) on Saturday from Razorback Stadium, and this is just one of the many games we're diving into as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.

Best Texas vs. Arkansas picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Against the spread pick: Texas -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Arkansas ⭐⭐⭐
My best bet: Quinn Ewers longest pass completion Over 44.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas vs. Arkansas against the spread prediction: Week 12

Texas to cover the spread: -13.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Texas vs. Arkansas opening odds:

Texas: -15.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Arkansas: +15.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Arkansas’ injury concerns

Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green missed the second half of the team’s loss to Ole Miss with a sprained knee. In addition, leading rusher Ja’Quinden Jackson has missed the last two games with an ankle injury.

Arkansas benefitted from a bye week to help its two best offensive players heal.

Jackson has been upgraded to probable, while Green also looks set to return. But much of Green’s skill-set is tied to his running ability, as he leads the team in carries (105) and is second in rushing yards (411). Thus, if his speed or elusiveness are compromised at all on Saturday, it makes Texas’ life that much easier on the defensive side.

Quinn Ewers is in for a big day

Longhorns quarterback Ewers is coming off a career-high five-touchdown performance against Florida.

Ewers now faces a Razorbacks secondary that was torched by Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart in their last game for 515 passing yards and six touchdowns, both of which were school records.

Dart became the second SEC player with 500-plus passing yards and six or more touchdowns. Meanwhile, Rebels wide receiver Jordan Watkins’ 254 receiving yards and five touchdowns were school records, while the receiving touchdown total tied an SEC record.

Arkansas’ miserable pass defense before the bye week had head coach Sam Pittman tinkering with secondary position battles during practice.

Longhorns' defense should dominate

Arkansas ranks outside the top 80 in PFF’s pass-blocking grade, which is a big reason why it ranks 114th in Havoc Allowed.

Meanwhile, Texas ranks 14th in Defensive Havoc, and is second in the country in total defense (251.0 yards allowed per game), with its season-high in yards allowed being 329 against Florida.

History will not repeat itself

Arkansas has already upset then-No. 4 Tennessee as a double-digit home underdog. But only one team since 2018 has won two games outright as double-digit home underdogs in the same season.

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with a spread of -13.5 points. Thus, I am only backing this with a three-star play, as sharp action likely drove this line from an opening number of -15.5 below the key number of 14.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Texas vs. Arkansas best bet

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Quinn Ewers longest pass completion Over 44.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arkansas allowed 562 passing yards to Ole Miss on just 28 completions, further highlighting its vulnerability to explosive passing plays (the Razorbacks rank 119th against pass explosives).

The Razorbacks have also been burned by experienced signal callers. Power Five upperclassmen Alan Bowman, Garrett Nussmeier, and Jaxson Dart averaged 358.0 passing yards against Arkansas. That does not even include Auburn’s Payton Thorne who threw for 213 yards in just the second half in their matchup.

Ewers and the Longhorns passing attack should come up with plenty of big plays, just like when it had a whopping 10 explosive pass plays against Florida last week.

While this prop is only available at bet365 as of this writing, bettors can back the O/Us of longest receptions for several individual Longhorns wide receivers at FanDuel.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Texas vs. Arkansas odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Texas vs. Arkansas game info

When: Saturday, Nov. 16
Kickoff: Noon ET
Where: Razorback Stadium (Fayetteville, Ark.)
How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
Weather: 66 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph S
Favorite: Texas -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”