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Quinn Ewers of the Texas Longhorns throws a pass as we share our best Texas Tech vs. Texas prediction.
Quinn Ewers of the Texas Longhorns throws a pass against the Rice Owls at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images via AFP.

In the most significant game of the new 2023 college football season, the Texas Longhorns and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in a Power 5 battle. Read on as we make our top Texas-Alabama prediction based on the best college football odds.

Last season, the Crimson Tide secured victory in Austin with a last-minute field goal. Can the Longhorns pull off a surprise upset in Week 2, especially considering that significant players from both teams are leaving for the NFL Draft?

Neither team faced any adversity in Week 1. The Crimson Tide demolished the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, while the Longhorns had no trouble with the Rice Owls. Quarterbacks Quinn Ewers and Jalen Milroe each threw three touchdowns in their start of the season. Will they have the same success this weekend against much better defenses as we make our college football Week 2 predictions?

Here is our best Texas vs. Alabama prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texas vs. Alabama prediction: Week 2

Under 54.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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Despite how great QB Bryce Young and the Crimson Tide offense were in 2022, the defense was one of the worst the program had in a long time. It allowed 20 or more points in seven of 13 games, and struggled to keep any decent offenses off the scoreboard.

While it's safe to assume it took a step back on offense this season, even after putting up 56 points in Week 1, the D should be much better than it was a year ago.

While Texas' Ewers certainly proved himself as a worthy quarterback, he's acquired way too much hype. Last season, he appeared in 10 games and threw just 15 touchdowns while also tallying six interceptions. Additionally, he completed just 56.6% of his passes,  certainly not good enough to pull off an upset over the Crimson Tide.

Even so, we still don’t know if the Crimson Tide should be trusted as 7.5-point favorites. Therefore, play the Under. These teams managed just 39 points last season with much better offenses. If this game is close, it'll be low-scoring. If it's a blowout, it'll be because the Longhorns can't score enough to keep up with the Crimson Tide.

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Texas vs. Alabama best odds

bet365 (-110)

Under 54.5Under 54.5Under 54.5Under 54.5Under 54.5

All of our best sports betting apps offer the total at 54.5 for a price of -110. With how wagers are coming in, don’t expect this number to move at all. The only way it will move is if oddsmakers decide to reverse course and start acknowledging the public. Therefore, it may be worth waiting to take the Under.

At the moment, bet at BetMGM, Caesars, or bet365, since they’re also offering the Crimson Tide at -7 instead of 7.5, and Alabama should ultimately find a way to cover. If you want to parlay, do the Under and the Crimson Tide at -6.5 for a better price at one of these three books than you'll get at DraftKings or FanDuel.

Texas vs. Alabama odds

Texas vs. Alabama odds analysis

Despite 60% of wagers backing the Over, the total dropped a full 3 points since opening at 57.5. Our best sports betting sites are completely disregarding public opinion on this one. When that happens, it’s best to side with them rather than the public. Right now, that means taking the Under.

The Crimson Tide opened as 6.5-point favorites, and after receiving 64% of wagers, the line moved to or through the key number of 7 at all of our best sportsbooks. If money continues to come in on the Tide, expect this line to keep moving in their favor. However, bettors may start to back Ewers and the Longhorns as the week proceeds because of last year’s result. Because of this, wait to get in on the Crimson Tide and see if you get a spread of 6.5 for a price of -110. If not, you won’t miss out on much since the line likely won’t get bigger than 8.

Texas vs. Alabama game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 9 at 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 63 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds

Texas-Alabama prediction made 9/6/23 at 11:10 a.m. ET.

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