Texas A&M vs. Missouri Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview
With a loaded slate of action on tap, let’s dive into our Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction as the Aggies look to assert themselves in the playoff race. No. 3 Texas A&M will visit No. 22 Missouri’s Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Mo., on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
Texas A&M is a sizeable 6.5-point betting favorite for this road matchup. My college football Week 11 predictions also include a player prop pick for Marcel Reed.
✅ Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction & expert picks
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📊 Texas A&M vs. Missouri odds
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🏈 Texas A&M vs. Missouri preview & score prediction
Missouri’s last game complicated the rest of the season. Losing to Vanderbilt dropped them to 6-2, which means they basically have to win out to make the College Football Playoff. The Tigers also lost their starting quarterback, Beau Pribula. The silver lining for Missouri is that four-star freshman backup Matt Zollers looked solid in relief of Pribula versus Vanderbilt, making some big-time plays to keep the Tigers in that game.
Texas A&M’s offense is a real threat. Offensively, dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed is a Heisman Trophy odds contender, and his top receiver, Mario Craver, is a Biletnikoff Award contender. Reed ranks 55th by passing efficiency (155.5), which leaves something to be desired, and he has already matched his six interceptions from last year in three fewer games. That’s an opportunity Missouri’s defense, which ranks second in the SEC by Havoc Rate, could exploit.
Eli Drinkwitz gets the cover
Even with the backup in, Missouri shouldn’t be a touchdown 'dog. The Texas A&M defense is strong, especially in the pass rush, but Missouri’s offense ranks second-best at limiting havoc caused by opposing defenses. The Aggies are beatable through the air, ranking last in the conference in explosive plays allowed. Missouri must string together explosive pass plays, which I’m optimistic Zollers can do.
Missouri’s biggest asset is its defense. The Tigers rank eighth in yards per play allowed (4.3), which clears 25th-ranked Texas A&M (4.8) by a healthy margin. Their front seven ranks third in the conference by Havoc Rate, and their secondary ranks second. Missouri is also second in the conference by Power Success Rate allowed (50%), making them one of three SEC teams with a mark below 65%.
It won’t be easy for the Aggies to move the ball versus Missouri’s defense, and the Tigers' offense should do enough to keep this close. Buy the Tigers to cover the +7 for -110 (52.4% implied probability) at BetMGM to score a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.
Score prediction: Texas A&M 24, Missouri 20
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🆚 Texas A&M vs. Missouri matchup to watch
Marcel Reed vs. Missouri's secondary
Reed has looked excellent this season, but the matchup with this Missouri defense could be tricky. Reed has avoided most of the SEC’s toughest defenses so far, but his passing production versus two of the best – Florida (234) and Auburn (207) – pours some cold water on his average of 246.5 passing yards per contest.
Reed hasn’t faced a defense that generates this much havoc. Missouri’s defense ranks second in the conference at it, and while Texas A&M leads the conference in preventing havoc, they’ve gotten there by facing defenses that don’t generate much of it. We’ll learn a lot about Reed and the Aggies’ offense on Saturday when they face this defense.
I am skeptical that Reed and the Texas A&M offensive line can prevent Eli Drinkwitz’s defense from limiting the passing output. The Tigers rank ninth in passing yards allowed per game (167.1) and just held Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia to 129 passing yards. Let’s fade Reed on the passing yardage prop market by buying Under 227.5 yards for -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel.
Best prop bet: Marcel Reed Under 227.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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📈 Texas A&M vs. Missouri betting trends
| Texas A&M | Statistic | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | W-L record | 6-2 |
| 4-4 | ATS record | 4-3 |
| 6 / 2 | O/U record | 4 / 4 |
| 6.69 | Yards per play | 6.13 |
| 5.10 | Yards allowed per play | 4.44 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | -2 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| W, 49-25 vs. LSU | Previous result | L, 10-17 vs. Vanderbilt |
🌤️ Texas A&M vs. Missouri weather
The weather shouldn’t be a factor for Saturday’s Texas A&M vs. Missouri game. The forecast calls for cloudy weather with a slight risk of precipitation (25%), but that currently sits at just a 7% chance at kickoff. Winds are projected to be 10 mph or slower.
📺 How to watch Texas A&M vs. Missouri
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Memorial Stadium (Columbia, Mo.)
- TV: ABC
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