Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Free College Football Picks for Week 4

Top sportsbooks have released their odds for Saturday's contest between Texas A&M and Arkansas. After upsetting Texas, the undefeated Razorbacks look to upset the top-10 and also undefeated Texas A&M.This game takes place on neutral site, although the location of this site -- Arlington, Texas -- is much closer to Texas A&M than it is to Arkansas. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game. Here is my NCAAF pick and prediction!

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium

Acknowledging Aggie Strengths 

While I like Arkansas to cover the spread, I think that any fair analysis should acknowledge the other team's strengths.

Part of my argument is that, effectively, Texas A&M's strengths will not matter on Saturday. Specifically, the Aggie pass defense is excelling, they rank best in the nation in limiting the opposing team's passer rating. Given its area of strength, the Aggie defense would most like to face a team that is reliant on passing the ball.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2F0Adq7Hek

So far, Texas A&M has benefited from facing teams that are much more reliant on passing the ball than Arkansas. The three Aggie opponents so far -- Kent State, Colorado, and New Mexico -- all ranked at least 28 spots ahead of Arkansas in pass play percentage.

Stated differently, only nine teams pass with lower frequency than Arkansas does. Because the Razorbacks do not like to pass the ball, the Aggies have a severely lessened opportunity to flex their strength on defense. Therefore, Arkansas is just the opponent that the Aggie defense does not want to face.

Aggie Run Defense

Know for your betting lines that Texas A&M's run defense merits concern after the first three games. One statistic that justifies this concern is that Aggies rank 80th nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game.

80th is undeniably bad, but it might not seem that bad. Two reasons why this ranking is really that bad revolve around the Aggie schedule until now.

Demond Demas #1 of the Texas A&M Aggies. Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images/AFP.

First of all, Texas A&M has faced a team that, with one exception, it could easily blow out because they are low-profile teams not in a Power 5 conference. Those teams, when so far behind, had less incentive to run and to amass rushing yards. Moreover, those teams could only offer much softer offensive line play and lower competence overall in the run game.

Colorado, Texas A&M's toughest opponent up to now, ranks 107th nationally in rush yards per game. Kent State, crucially, despite gashing the Aggies for 226 rushing yards, ranks 55th nationally in rush yards per game. Lastly, New Mexico ranks 64th nationally in the category. The Aggie run defense is as bad as it is despite the fact that it will face meaningfully tougher tests.

Arkansas' Strength and Why It Matters

On offense, Arkansas' strength is in precisely the area where the Aggie defense is at its weakest. Keep this detail in mind for your sports betting.

During the offseason, Razorback offensive linemen spoke out to declare that they would be more violent and more physical this season. This sort of aggressiveness is manifest in and paying off for the Razorback run group, and it should frighten an Aggie run defense that is getting gashed by MAC teams.

Because Arkansas is stronger running the ball, they want to run the ball more and are able to do it because of it. Currently, Arkansas ranks tenth nationally in run-play percentage and sixth nationally in rushing yards per game.

https://twitter.com/RazorbackFB/status/1439665597965484032?s=20

As I will describe soon, the Razorback runners -- both quarterbacks and running backs -- possess more consistency, more spark, and more variety than their Aggie counterparts. Specifically, four different Razorbacks rush for more than seven YPC. Arkansas' leading and highest-volume rusher, Trelon Smith, averages 5.1 YPC.

The Razorbacks' strength matters because it will help them level serious damage against the Aggie run defense. One may counter that, if Arkansas is one-dimensional, it won't be able to do that much damage to the Aggie run defense. But there are two responses here. One, the fact that an offense is one-dimensional does not justify counting it out.  We just saw, for example, a Florida offense lacking a competent quarterback nearly help upset top-ranked Alabama. Two, the Razorback offense is not one-dimensional in any meaningful sense because it does have a quarterback who it can rely on.

KJ Jefferson #1 of the Arkansas Razorbacks. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images/AFP.

In terms of pass efficiency and pass accuracy, KJ Jefferson has improved massively at quarterback for Arkansas. Plus, he reliably proves with high rushing totals to be a dangerous runner, thus giving him a dual-threat quality.

Little Faith in the Aggie Offense 

The primary reason why Texas A&M is hyped up and favored in this match-up is its defense. If you don't like the Aggie defense, then it is impossible, at least for this game, to make a case for betting on the Aggies.

Regarding its pass attack, Texas A&M lacked a steady situation at quarterback even before starter the injury suffered by the original starter, Haynes King, who threw three interceptions against Kent State. His backup and current starter Zach Calzada failed to complete even half of his passes against Colorado before somewhat exceeding that figure against the 30-point underdog New Mexico. After stymying Texas' pass attack with easily greater success than any other Longhorn opponent, Arkansas deserves your confidence to shut down departed Aggie quarterback Kellen Mond's replacement.

In its run game, Texas A&M lacks the same variety, spark, and consistency as its Arkansas counterparts, as evident especially in the Colorado game where it ran for 3.3 YPC against a defense that ranks 80th nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game. The Aggies rely mostly on two running backs who prove to be streaky and who receive insufficient help to improve from an offensive line that misses four starters from last year and that will have to contend with a Razorback defensive line that, among other virtues, enjoys significant size plugging up the middle.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.