TCU vs. Oklahoma State Week 11 College Football Picks: Cowboys Will Stay on Big 12 Title Game Path

No. 10 Oklahoma State controls its destiny while pushing to reach the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time in school history, and the Cowboys shouldn’t lose at home to TCU on Saturday, But the Frogs come in with some momentum.

Can you name the four schools that haven't played in the Big 12 Championship Game? Kansas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia all make sense, but Oklahoma State has fielded some very good teams under head coach Mike Gundy over the years, yet the Cowboys haven't advanced to the big game. They usually lose the Bedlam Game to Oklahoma, which eliminates them from title contention.

OSU (8-1, 5-1 in the Big 12) will reach the championship game by winning out. After hosting TCU, the Cowboys visit struggling Texas Tech on Nov. 20 and will be favored there. Then comes the Bedlam Game on Nov. 27. It’s possible Oklahoma State could lose that and still get a rematch in the conference title game with the Sooners.

TCU (4-5, 2-4 in the Big 12) is playing out a very disappointing season after already dismissing longtime head coach Gary Patterson. It’s hard to see the Frogs getting to six victories and bowl eligibility because they won't beat the Cowboys or take their finale at Iowa State, though TCU should beat visiting Kansas on Nov. 20.

Oklahoma State leads the all-time series against TCU 16-13-2. The home team is 7-2 against the spread over the previous nine matchups.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (odds via DraftKings, pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

TCU vs. Oklahoma State Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 13 at 8 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation:  Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla.Weather: A few clouds, low of 42

TCU vs. Oklahoma State Odds Analysis

If you plan to back the Frogs, the big question is whether the spread gets to 14 points or higher. About a 65 percent lean toward the Cowboys on the spread so far is pushing it from an open of -12.5 to -13. It’s going to be the highest spread in the series since TCU joined the Big 12. The previous high was TCU at -10.5 in 2014, when it beat OSU 42-9 in Fort Worth.

The total of 54.5 points has been steady. The past three games in this series have closed with a total between 52.5-58.5 and the Over is 2-1 in those.

TCU vs. Oklahoma State Betting Picks

Oklahoma State -13 (-110) ???Under 54.5 points (-110) ???

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TCU vs. Oklahoma State Predictions

Oklahoma State -13 (-110)

The Cowboys were 2.5-point road favorites last season and lost 29-22 to TCU. Frogs quarterback Max Duggan, who would be the team’s 2021 starter if healthy, accounted for 369 total yards and three touchdowns, two of which came on the ground. The Frogs were unranked and OSU was No. 19. The loss would end up eliminating Okie State from Big 12 title game contention.

OSU’s first six wins this season were all pretty close, but after a 24-21 loss at Iowa State on Oct. 23, the Pokes outscored Kansas and West Virginia by a combined 69-6. Gundy is asking quarterback Spencer Sanders to be more of a game-manager this season and avoid mistakes. He's topped 182 passing yards just once over his past five games.

To get the Pokes even more fired up, it’s a “Blackout” game, and the school will unveil a statue of legendary running back Barry Sanders. OSU has won six of the last 10 in the series and five of the last six at home.

Sometimes teams can get a short-term bump in energy from an interim coach, and that appears to be what happened last week for TCU in a 30-28 upset of then-No. 12 Baylor in the Frogs’ first game since dumping Patterson. Jerry Kill, a former coach at Minnesota and several other spots, is the interim coach, but he doesn’t have a shot at the full-time gig.

Quarterback Chandler Morris was given his first start at QB for TCU during that win, going 29-for-41 passing for 461 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 70 yards and another score. He even caught a short pass. His 531 yards of total offense were the second-best total in TCU history behind Matt Vogler's 696 against Houston in 1990.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is 7-0 against the spread over its past seven games. TCU is 2-7 ATS in its past nine as a road dog.

Under 54.5 points (-110)

The Pokes win with a strong running game and the Big 12’s top defense. They've allowed league lows of 16 total touchdowns and 16 points per game.

Last week, West Virginia finished with just 133 total yards of offense against the Cowboys, the fewest OSU has allowed since 2000. Oklahoma State produced a season-high with eight sacks, its second-best single-game total in school history, and the team's most since 2004. The eight sacks also tied for the most from any Power 5 school this season.

In allowing WVU and Kansas only three points each in back-to-back games, the Cowboys didn't give up a TD in consecutive contests for the first time since the final game of 1974 and the first of 1975.

Linebacker and Butkus Award semifinalist Malcom Rodriguez leads their defense. He's one of nine senior starters on a group that ranks No. 3 in the FBS in total defense (277 yards allowed per game), and it's allowing the fewest yards per play (4.41) since 1984. OSU's defense is the only one in the Big 12 with more interceptions (eight) than passing TDs allowed (six).

We're flying a bit blind here on TCU because Duggan and Zach Evans, the Frogs’ top running back, both missed the Baylor game. Kendre Miller, their No. 2 back, also left with an injury. Evans isn't expected to play against the Cowboys, and he's recorded 648 yards and five scores. Miller and Duggan are questionable at best, and I don’t envision Morris ringing up anywhere near 531 yards again if he replaces Duggan.

The Under is 5-2 in TCU’s last seven as an underdog and 4-1 in OSU’s past five Big 12 games.

SEE ALSO: Top Week 11 Opening Lines

Picks made 11/9/2021 at 7:12 p.m. ET