Northwestern vs. Ohio State Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 14)
My Northwestern vs. Ohio State prediction expects two struggling offenses to continue having problems, as both starting quarterbacks are out for this game.
Below, I explain why No. 20 Ohio State's offensive production over the last two weeks is inflated by late, meaningless touchdowns that won't be available in a tightly contested Big Ten battle. Ohio State is a 13.5-point betting favorite Saturday, with kickoff from Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio, set for noon ET (FOX).
Northwestern vs. Ohio State picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern +13.5 | +100 via bet365 | 1 unit to profit 1 unit |
| Under 44.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 2 units to profit 1.82 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 12 at noon ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3 units | Profit if all picks win: 2.82 units
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Northwestern vs. Ohio State prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 44.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Since Julian Sayin's injury, the Ohio State offense has not performed well. While the Buckeyes scored 28 points last week against Oregon, the score was 38-14 with just 3:25 remaining in the game. The week before, Ohio State scored 18 against a USC defense allowing 24.2 points per game, and again the Buckeyes' final touchdown came with under 3:00 minutes remaining and their opponent up by multiple scores.
Meanwhile, the Ohio State defense has allowed 71 points over the last two weeks, giving up 366.5 yards per game. This isn't a case of exhaustion from being on the field either. Ohio State possessed the ball for 29:59 against Oregon and 39:28 against USC.
However, Ohio State's defense will get a reprieve this week against Nicco Marchiol, who fills in for the injured Aidan Chiles. Marchiol threw for 181 yards and one touchdown last week against Iowa, but Northwestern managed only 10 points.
📡 SBR Edge
Both teams have strong red-zone defenses, which should further hurt the struggling offenses. Northwestern's defense ranks 12th nationally in red-zone touchdown percentage (42.86%), and Ohio State's ranks 41st (54.17%).
Northwestern's rushing attack is doomed
Northwestern is averaging the second-most rushing yards per game (190.22) in the Big Ten. However, a big part of the success is the mobility of Chiles. Chiles has 86 rushes for 274 yards this season, but without him last week, Northwestern managed just 105 rushing yards.
Caleb Komolafe still leads Northwestern with 643 rushing yards, and he's averaging 5.8 yards per carry. But last week, he rushed for just 25 yards on seven carries. Komolafe has now rushed for just 32 yards on 13 carries against the Big Ten's two best rush defenses.
Ohio State ranks fifth in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed per game. Even during this recent two-game losing streak, the Ohio State defense is allowing only 112 rushing yards per game. With the run game shut down, Marchiol will struggle against a pass defense allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt this season.
Play to: Under 42.5 at -110
Score prediction: Ohio State 24, Northwestern 14
Live Northwestern vs. Ohio State odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Northwestern vs. Ohio State page.
Northwestern vs. Ohio State opening odds
- Moneyline: Northwestern +310 | Ohio State -391
- Spread: Northwestern +10.5 (-110) | Ohio State -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-107) | Under 47.5 (-113)
Northwestern vs. Ohio State weather
It will be a little windy, but weather shouldn't impact this game. There's just a 13% chance of precipitation and wind gusts are expected around 16 mph.
Latest Northwestern vs. Ohio State injuries
Northwestern:
- Aidan Chiles, QB - Out
Ohio State:
- Julian Sayin, QB - Out
How to watch Northwestern vs. Ohio State: Week 11
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 14
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Location: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
- TV/Streaming: FOX, Fubo
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