Illinois vs. UCLA Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 13)
No. 4 UCLA is one of two unbeaten FBS teams entering a Friday night showdown against Illinois, and my Illinois vs. UCLA prediction expects the Bruins to keep things rolling against a Fighting Illini squad that may be content having already clinched bowl eligibility.
Kickoff from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena is set for 9 p.m. ET (Fox). UCLA is a 10-point betting favorite, and the O/U is currently at 47.5 points.
Illinois vs. UCLA picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| UCLA -9.5 | -125 via BetMGM | 1 unit to profit 0.8 units |
| Under 48.5 | -120 via FanDuel | 1 unit to profit 0.83 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 11 at 1 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.63 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Illinois vs. UCLA prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
UCLA -9.5 (-125 via BetMGM)
Not only is UCLA one of the two remaining unbeaten FBS teams, but it is the only team with a perfect 9-0 ATS mark. That makes the Bruins the first team since Western Michigan in 2014 to cover the spread in each of their first nine games.
Illinois’ offense ranks in the top 10 in Havoc allowed, but its typical advantage over most opponents is negated by a UCLA offense that is also top 10 in the same metric. The most lopsided metric in this matchup is the other side of the ball: the Bruins' defense ranks seventh in Havoc created, while the Fighting Illini’s defense ranks outside the top 100.
I look for UCLA to take control in this game as it usually does by creating turnovers, as it is the only team with 10-plus fumble recoveries this season and ranks third in turnover margin (plus-14).
Several top sports betting sites have this spread a full point higher at -10.5, so I'm glad to pay up slightly to lay single digits at BetMGM.
📡 SBR Edge: Avoiding the trap
UCLA was in a precarious betting spot last week as an AP top 7 team laying single digits to an unranked team on the road, as the six teams before it in that split were just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS. But the Bruins took care of business in a 34-20 win over Minnesota in a game where the point spread lowered from -6.5 to -3.5 before kickoff.
UCLA can create explosive pass plays
Illinois’ pass rush ranks 121st, per PFF. A lack of putting consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks has led the Bruins to be ranked outside the top 115 in Pass EPA allowed.
UCLA quarterback Ty Dieffenbach only completed eight of 16 pass attempts last week. But those eight completions totaled 303 yards and three touchdowns, and his QBR has improved for three straight weeks.
I expect Dieffenbach to again do enough in the passing game to prevent the Fighting Illini from stacking the box against a running back who is tied for the Big Ten rushing lead, Wayne Knight.
Play to: -10 (-105), pass at -10.5 or higher
Score prediction: UCLA 28, Illinois 17
Live Illinois vs. UCLA odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Illinois vs. UCLA matchup page.
Illinois vs. UCLA opening odds
- Moneyline: Illinois +270 | UCLA -325
- Spread: Illinois +9.5 (-108) | UCLA -9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-115) | Under 46.5 (-105)
Illinois vs. UCLA weather
Rain is forecasted in Pasadena on Friday night, with a 90% chance of precipitation and temperatures in the mid 50s.
Latest Illinois vs. UCLA injuries
Illinois:
- Aidan Laughery, RB - Out
UCLA:
- Nico Iamaleava, QB - Out
How to watch Illinois vs. UCLA: Week 11
- Date: Friday, Nov. 13
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif.)
- TV/Streaming: Fox
Related Articles
