College Football Best Bets for Week 11: Expert Picks & Predictions

My college football best bets for Week 11 look to build off of last week’s success in nailing both of my point spread wagers, while covering those games by a combined 45 points. I look to take advantage of a loaded weekend slate while trying to identify the best betting angles for several matchups involving ranked teams.

My four-pack of best bet wagers as part of our college football Week 11 predictions include totals on two matchups between CFP top 25 teams. I also believe No. 7 Miami is laying too many points in a dangerous matchup against Duke, especially with how its offense looked without Malachi Toney.

College football best bets & expert picks: Week 11

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.

Picks submitted: Nov. 11 at 12:15 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change. 

Total wagered: 4 units | Profit if all picks win: 3.56 units

Best college football bets this week

Duke +13.5 (-112 via DraftKings)

Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz returns to Miami where he served as head coach for three seasons, and now has an in-depth scouting report when facing two players (quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Cooper Barkate) that he coached personally at Duke. 

Duke has a path to staying close in this matchup behind the strength of an offensive line that has allowed just four sacks this year (t-2nd fewest). Meanwhile, Diaz’s teams are 31-5 when winning the turnover battle, and the Blue Devils have only committed five turnovers this year (Miami conversely only has two interceptions).

Miami has lost at least one game to an unranked ACC opponent every year under Mario Cristobal, and two touchdowns is too much to lay in this matchup.

Play to: +13 (-110)

Missouri-Georgia Under 47.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Only one team has scored more than 20 points against Georgia this season, and I don’t expect Missouri to be the second as it ranks 122nd in Rush Success rate and outside the top 95 in Finishing Drives.

Missouri’s offense scores touchdowns on half of its red zone trips (among the worst in FBS). Thus, it is likely not built to take advantage of one of Georgia’s lone weaknesses of allowing touchdowns on more than 68% of opponents’ red zone trips. 

Missouri’s defense can hold up well as it averages less than three yards per carry allowed (top 12). I also expect Georgia to continue to wreak havoc in the backfield, as it ranks sixth nationally with 31 sacks.

Play to: Under 46.5 (-105)

Oklahoma +1.5 (-118 via DraftKings)

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has struggled mightily against elite competition. His 60.3 QBR, 48% completion percentage, three interceptions, and 4.5 yards per dropback against Texas were all career worsts as a starter at the time. Then, he was largely responsible for the team being shut out at home in the first half last week for the first time since Oct. 10, 2009. 

Oklahoma improved to 6-0 over the last two seasons following a loss with a dominant 23-7 road win over then-No. 24 Florida. While the Sooners’ defense was impressive in limiting the Gators to just 47 plays, perhaps the bigger takeaway is how the offense looked in the first game under new play-caller Jason Witten.

Play to: PK (-110)

Utah-Arizona Over 54.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Utah is a boom-or-bust offense, specifically in the running game. The Utes rank in the top eight nationally with 5.5 yards per carry, while still getting stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on one of every four runs. But I expect explosive plays against a Wildcats defense that has missed 109 tackles this season. 

Arizona is a defense that deploys mostly man coverage, which is dangerous when facing a quarterback who runs as well as Devon Dampier. Against top 25 opponents, Dampier has 35 carries for 239 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. 

I also expect explosive plays from an Arizona passing game against a Utah defense that allows 13 yards per completion (127th). So while the Utes rank second in completion percentage allowed, they will be challenged by a Wildcats offense that ranks third in completion percentage.

Play to: Over 55.5 (-105)