Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 13)
The ACC will be featured in prime time on Friday night with two teams attempting to build momentum with a second straight win, and I have you covered for it with my Florida State vs. Pittsburgh prediction.
The Panthers continue to adjust to playing with their backup quarterback, while Florida State is down its top running back in this game. Pittsburgh hosts Florida State as a 3.5-point betting favorite at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh ahead of the 7 p.m. ET kickoff (ESPN).
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh -3.5 | -105 via FanDuel | 2.1 units to profit 2 units |
| Under 53.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 1.1 units to profit 1 unit |
Picks submitted: Nov. 12 at 10 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3.20 units | Profit if all picks win: 3 units
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Florida State vs. Pittsburgh prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Pittsburgh -3.5(-105 via FanDuel)
Pittsburgh will continue to lean on QB Holden Geriner in place of Mason Heintschel, despite his unimpressive passing production. Geriner benefits from facing a soft Florida State run defense, likely leading to Pitt running backs Damon Ferguson Jr. and La'Vell Wright getting most of the touches in the Panthers' offense.
The Seminoles have the edge at quarterback with Ashton Daniels. He leads Florida State with 13 rushing touchdowns, while struggling with turnovers in the passing game, throwing 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Pittsburgh will hone in on Daniels as a ball carrier, forcing him to air it out.
Pittsburgh has the fourth-best scoring defense in the ACC, allowing 19.8 points per game. This includes a stout 2.2 YPC, while forcing 2+ turnovers in four of its previous five appearances.
Florida State's offense is going to struggle on the road against long-time head coach Pat Narduzzi's hard-nosed defense. Pittsburgh will be able to control time of possession and wind up winning by more than a field goal.
Go to FanDuel and bet Pittsburgh -3.5 at -105 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Seminole Struggles
Florida State is allowing the fourth-most points per game (28.3) in the ACC in 2026.
Pittsburgh defense clamps down on Florida State
Narduzzi and his defensive prowess will make sure to limit Daniels' rushing ability. That will take away the main component of Florida State's offense, while the Seminoles' porous run defense, allowing 4.7 YPC this season, will be exploited as Pittsburgh's edge on offense.
Ultimately, Pittsburgh's defense will clamp down on Florida State. The Panthers will force multiple turnovers and hold the Seminoles' offense to a potential season-low output on the road.
Play to: Pittsburgh -4.5
Score prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Florida State 23
Live Florida State vs. Pittsburgh odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Florida State vs. Pittsburgh matchup page.
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida State +130 | Pittsburgh -160
- Spread: Florida State +3.0 (-110) | Pittsburgh -3.0 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-108) | Under 53.5 (-112)
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh weather
The forecast for Acrisure Stadium at kickoff expects 38 degrees °F with 7.4 mph wind and a 9 percent probability of precipitation. Cold and relatively calm conditions shouldn't impact this matchup.
Latest Florida State vs. Pittsburgh injuries
Florida State:
- RB Ousmane Kromah - Out
Pittsburgh:
- QB Mason Heintschel - Out
How to watch Florida State vs. Pittsburgh: Week 11
- Date: Friday, Nov. 13
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
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