Duke vs. Miami Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 14)
My best Duke vs. Miami prediction focuses on how Duke's strong defense can cause problems for No. 7 Miami, as the Hurricanes will once again be without Malachi Toney. That said, I'm not expecting much from a Duke offense that loves to run against the nation's top run defense.
Miami is favored by 13.5 points ahead of Saturday's noon ET game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The game will air on ABC and stream on ESPN Unlimited.
Duke vs. Miami picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Duke +13.5 | -108 via BetMGM | 1 unit to profit 0.93 units |
| Under 54.5 | -108 via DraftKings | 2 units to profit 1.86 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 12 at 3:45 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3 units | Profit if all picks win: 2.79 units
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Duke vs. Miami prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 54.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
Duke ranks first in the ACC in passing yards allowed per game (186.6) and passing touchdowns allowed (7), and ranks third in yards allowed per passing attempt (6.5). Duke also doesn't make it easy on the ground, as the run defense is allowing just 95.56 yards per game and 3.01 yards per carry.
All that said, Miami is still averaging the fourth-most yards per game (516.6). Despite struggling through the first half against Notre Dame, the offense ended with 370 yards and 24 points on the road against a defense that ranks third nationally in yards allowed per game and ninth nationally in points allowed per game.
Still, I need to see Miami's offense look great for a full game without Toney before I expect them to be as good as they were through their first eight games. Plus, Duke hasn't allowed a touchdown in 11 quarters and has yet to allow more than 28 points in a game.
📡 SBR Edge
Duke has allowed only 90 plays of 10 or more yards and 29 plays of 20 or more yards this season. Those totals rank first and second in the ACC, respectively. Miami has the third-most 10-yard plays in the country, but Notre Dame is the only team the Hurricanes have faced that is allowing fewer than Duke.
Miami's defense showed improvement against Notre Dame
While Miami allowed 31 points to Notre Dame, the Hurricanes held the Fighting Irish to just seven points over the final 27:05 of the game. They also held Notre Dame to just 10 points for the first 29:31.
Miami's run defense was particularly impressive, holding a Notre Dame offense that averages 175.67 rushing yards per game to just 93. This is bad news for a Duke offense that is reliant on the run and averages 190.56 rushing yards per game and 5.23 yards per carry.
If Miami can shut down Duke's rushing attack, the offensive load will fall on the shoulders of Duke's 14th-ranked ACC passing attack, which is averaging just 234.6 yards per game. While Miami ranks 127th in pass defense and allowed CJ Carr to throw for 319 yards last week, 201 of those yards came on three drives. Miami held Carr to just 118 passing yards on Notre Dame's other nine possessions.
Play to: Under 52.5 at -110
Score prediction: Miami 28, Duke 17
Live Duke vs. Miami odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Duke vs. Miami page.
Duke vs. Miami opening odds
- Moneyline: Duke +500 | Miami -699
- Spread: Duke +14.5 (-111) | Miami -14.5 (-109)
- Over/Under: Over 54 (-115) | Under 54 (-125)
Duke vs. Miami weather
The weather shouldn't impact Saturday's game. There's only a 4% chance of rain and wind gusts are expected around 14 mph.
Latest Duke vs. Miami injuries
Duke:
- Patrick Smith-Young, S - Out
Miami:
- Malachi Toney, WR - Out
How to watch Duke vs. Miami: Week 11
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 14
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN Unlimited
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