Netherlands vs. Greece Predictions & Odds: Nations League Picks (Nov. 13)
Tied for the top position in Group A2 and safe from direct relegation, the Netherlands host Greece in Friday's Nations League play. My Netherlands vs. Greece prediction breaks down the game that will likely decide the group.
Netherlands is a -200 moneyline betting favorite, but there are better ways to attack the game. Play from Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam gets underway at 2:45 p.m. ET (FS1).
Netherlands vs. Greece predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands Over 17.5 shots | -120 via bet365 | 1 units to profit 0.83 units |
| Crysencio Summerville 3+ fouls won | -120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.42 units |
| Donyell Malen 4+ shots | +110 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.55 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 12 at 9 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.8 units
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Netherlands vs. Greece best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Netherlands Over 17.5 shots (-120 via bet365)
The Netherlands have cleared this line in all four games, including 19 against Greece in the reverse fixture, which ended 2-2. Four matches hardly makes this is a guaranteed play, but it's a valid starting point.
Greece defends deeply, but it defends stubbornly. Greece's success through the first four games has come through tight defensive play. The reverse fixture saw Oranje pick up 40 box touches and 26 crosses, and while those figures are probably a bit inflated due to chasing a lot of the game, we don't need to reach those levels for this to come through. Sustained possession and recycled clearances will lead to plenty of chances through crowded areas.
Play to: -138
🆚 Who will win Netherlands vs. Greece?
The Dutch should dominate territory and have plenty of chances, but missing van Dijk on the backend, coupled with Greece showing they can score, doesn't necessarily mean this be a blowout.
Score prediction: Netherlands 2, Greece 1
More Netherlands vs. Greece expert picks
Crysencio Summerville 3+ fouls won (-120 via bet365)
Summerville picks up plenty of fouls generally, and this game is setting up to provide more of the same.
The right wing will get repeated runs at a set defense and add to his successful dribble tally. He'll draw contact as he attacks defenders and they try to close him down. He's hit this figure in three of four games so far in the tournament, including the reverse fixture, showing his usage in one of League A's more offensively minded nations.
Rohit Saggi from Eliteserien will be on the whistle, and tends to be a little loose in calling fouls, with a two-year domestic sample of 24.1 per game.
Play to: -125
Donyell Malen 4+ shots (+110 via bet365)
Malen has been firing away in Serie A, picking up 41 shots in 10 appearances (good for 5.66 per 90). The club numbers are there, and with Brobbey withdrawn from the team the pressure to produce will be there too.
Dutch pressure and recycled possessions should benefit the man set to lead the line as he takes advantage of crosses, cutbacks, and loose balls around the penalty area. Greece blocked nine shots in the reverse fixture, which instantly makes the shots market feel better than risking it with a shots on target prop.
Play to: +100
Netherlands vs. Greece key stats
All stats below are for the Nations League unless otherwise noted.
| Netherlands | Greece | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Goals for/game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| xG/game | 2.48 | 1.23 |
| Goals against/game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| xGA/game | 1.38 | 1.3 |
| Average possession | 64% | 36% |
Netherlands vs. Greece odds
Odds from bet365 as of Nov. 12; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: Netherlands (-182) | Draw (+333) | Greece (+450)
- Total: Over 2.5 (-163) | Under 2.5 (+125)
Netherlands vs. Greece projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Netherlands vs. Greece; subject to change:
| Netherlands (4-3-3) | Greece (4-4-2) |
|---|---|
| Verbruggen (GK) | Tzolakis (GK) |
| Dumfries (D) | Vagiannidis (D) |
| J. Timber (D) | Mavropanos (D) |
| van Hecke (D) | Koulierakis (D) |
| Van de Ven (D) | Tsimikas (D) |
| Q. Timber (M) | Masouras (M) |
| de Jong (M) | Kourbelis (M) |
| Veerman (M) | Androutsos (M) |
| Summerville (F) | Tzolis (M) |
| Malen (F) | Pavlidis (F) |
| Gakpo (F) | Ioannidis (F) |
Netherlands vs. Greece injuries
Netherlands:
- Nathan Ake (D), hamstring - out
- Virgil van Dyke (D), undisclosed - withdrawn from team
- Brian Brobbey (F), undisclosed - withdrawn from team
Greece:
- Giannis Michailidis (D), adductor - out
- Dimitris Pelkas (M), knee - out
- Manolis Saliakas - suspended (red card)
- Christos Zafeiris - suspended (red card)
How to watch Netherlands vs. Greece
- Date: Friday, Nov. 13
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)
- TV/Streaming: FS1
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