Michigan vs. Oregon Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 14)
My best Michigan vs. Oregon prediction explains how inclement weather benefits Michigan in this game. The Michigan offense has struggled all season, but the defense has been solid and should be aided by rain and wind as the Wolverines try to slow down No. 16 Oregon.
Oregon is favored by 10.5 points ahead of Saturday's 3:30 p.m. ET game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. The game will air on FS1 and stream on FOX One.
Michigan vs. Oregon picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan +10.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 2.5 units to profit 2.27 units |
| Under 38.5 | -108 via BetMGM | 2.5 units to profit 2.32 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 12 at 4:30 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 5 units | Profit if all picks win: 4.59 units
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Michigan vs. Oregon prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Michigan +10.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Michigan is allowing just 16.2 points per game, which ranks 14th nationally. The defense has allowed 21 or fewer points in every game this season, and Michigan has held three of its last four opponents to 18 or fewer.
Oregon enters this matchup averaging 34.1 points per game, which ranks second-best in the Big Ten. The Ducks have scored at least 34 points in back-to-back games, but this is still a team that has struggled at various times this season. Oregon has scored 17 or fewer points in three of its last five games, with quarterback Dylan Raiola playing meaningful minutes in each contest.
Oregon ranks third in the Big Ten in passing yards per game, averaging 285.2 per contest. However, Michigan is allowing just 154.8 passing yards per game and will essentially have an extra defender on the field if the weather is as bad as forecasts project.
📡 SBR Edge
Though Michigan has only recovered two fumbles this season, I expect the Wolverines to recover at least one in sloppy conditions, as Oregon enters with 10 lost fumbles, tied for the second-most in the nation.
Michigan has the advantage on the ground
Michigan is averaging just 19.6 points per game, scoring six points in two of its last three contests. That said, Michigan is a team that prefers to run the ball. Michigan has attempted just 220 passes this season and ranks last in the Big Ten with just 173.9 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have run the ball 324 times and are averaging 128.67 rushing yards per game.
Oregon is allowing 124.78 rushing yards per game, so I don't expect Michigan to break off any big runs. However, Michigan still has the advantage if the rushing attacks become the focus for both teams. Oregon is averaging 136.78 rushing yards per game and will need to decipher Michigan's run defense, which is allowing just 100.56 yards per game, without Jordon Davison.
Play to: Michigan +9.5 at +110
Score prediction: Oregon 10, Michigan 6
Live Michigan vs. Oregon odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Michigan vs. Oregon page.
Michigan vs. Oregon opening odds
- Moneyline: Michigan +360 | Oregon -470
- Spread: Michigan +11.5 (-111) | Oregon -11.5 (-109)
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-109) | Under 40.5 (-111)
Michigan vs. Oregon weather
Sloppy conditions could impact this game, as there's an 84% chance of precipitation and wind gusts are expected to reach up to 24 mph.
Latest Michigan vs. Oregon injuries
Michigan:
- Blake Frazier, OL - Doubtful
Oregon:
- Dante Moore, QB - Out
- Jordon Davison, RB - Out
- Teitum Tuioti, DE - Out
How to watch Michigan vs. Oregon: Week 11
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 14
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)
- TV/Streaming: FS1/FOX One
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