Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

This game could carry a lot of weight for the G5 CFP battle, and Western Kentucky's offense is capable of pushing Toledo. Abilene Christian transfer, Maverick McIvor, has eight touchdown passes and seven big-time throws through two games. The Hilltoppers are No. 61 in SP+, while the Rockets are just No. 77.

The Black Knights' style creates fewer possessions for their opponents. However, while the Black Knights may dominate time of possession and reduce Kansas State's scoring, I don't expect them to do much scoring when they have the ball after they struggled last week against Tarleton State.

Army gave up nearly 200 rushing yards last week, so I expect the Kansas State rushing attack to dominate this game. Johnson will also throw less than he did in the first two games, as the Wildcats win in blowout fashion.

Mississippi State struggled with a Southern Miss squad that predominantly relied on transfers in Week 1. The Bulldogs' defense, No. 78 in SP+, is going to have an impossible time slowing down Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson, who have the Sun Devils ranked No. 30 in SP+.

Jordyn Tyson was unstoppable in his first game since suffering a collarbone injury this past November. The Arizona State star had 12 receptions for 141 yards on 17 targets in Week 1, and looks to be Kenny Dillingham's new go-to playmaker with Cam Skattebo gone. Tyson has had at least 125 receiving yards in four straight games, and a Mississippi State defense that's No. 85 in EPA per pass won't stop him.

New Boston College QB Dylan Lonergan had a spectacular debut, with four touchdowns and zero turnover-worthy plays. He and Lewis Bond pose a challenging matchup for Michigan State. And the Spartans' offense remains a problem, ranking No. 108 in SP+ after struggling against Western Michigan. 

The addition of John Mateer and his Washington State play-caller, Ben Arbuckle, should give the Sooners an offense that matches their talented defense. And while Michigan is poised for a bounce-back season, it's a big ask to expect true freshman Bryce Underwood to win in Norman in just his second start.

Sooners head coach Brent Venables is 11-5 ATS as a home favorite, and his teams are 15-4 SU when playing in Norman. This road environment will be too much for Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood to handle in his second collegiate start and first road start.

This is much of a play against Michigan as it is a play on Oklahoma. The Wolverines were thoroughly unimpressive last week against lowly New Mexico, racking up more than 450 yards and picking off three passes yet only prevailing 34-17 as a 34.5-point favorite.

With this one in Norman, give me stud Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer (392 passing yards in his Sooners debut last week) over Michigan true freshman Bryce Underwood.

I love the poise Bryce Underwood displayed in his debut, even if Michigan didn't look as dominant as expected. People are too quick to count out the Wolverines' experienced defense, as well. Brent Venables' roster looks a lot better on paper this year, but I need to see it to believe it. I believe the books are giving the visitors too many points.

Bryce Underwood played fine for Michigan in the opener, but the test in Norman is going to be on another level for the true freshman.

As a team, the Wolverines didn't impress against New Mexico. Oklahoma should be motivated to work out the kinks after a slow start against Illinois State as the Sooners try to launch a CFP bid with a win in this marquee matchup.

Michigan true freshman Bryce Underwood was terrific in his college debut last week, going 21-for-31 for 251 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. But that was against New Mexico. It also was at home. Now Underwood, who just celebrated his 18th birthday — has to play a Top 20 team in its building. And the national TV spotlight will be shining bright.

Am I down on Underwood's future? Not at all. Am I down on him this week? Yep.

For as good as Bryce Underwood looked in his first career start last week, it was at home against New Mexico. This week is a totally different scenario, heading into one of college football's most hostile environments. Underwood had an ADOT of just seven yards against the Lobos, so taking on an Oklahoma team that's No. 1 in EPA per pass on defense will be a whole new challenge. 

After a season in which no Oklahoma QB passed for more than 300 yards in any single game, John Mateer racked up 392 in the opener. Michigan's run defense was top-5 in the nation lasdt year, and it opened the season similarly.

The Sooners will have to take to the air to win this game, and Mateer has the chops to do it.

A Michigan native who has spoken this week about not being recruited by Michigan, Deion Burks was a quality target for John Mateer in Week 1, logging 88 yards on seven receptions.  

The Washington State transfer scrambled for 15 touchdowns in his first full season as a starting quarterback in college, registering a rushing score against 11 of 12 opponents. Michigan is miles ahead of anything else Mateer has faced to date, but his big-play ability in the passing game could force the Wolverines to respect his arm more than his legs. I'm predicting Mateer will extend his rushing touchdown streak to nine games.

Marlin Klein emerged as a safety blanket for freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood in Week 1, finding the end zone as a heavily-targeted part of the passing attack. His anytime touchdowns odds still don't reflect the degree of his potential involvement as a red zone target.

Stanford enters this game with a week off after its loss to Hawaii, but one wonders how much that will matter. BYU is coming off a 69-point throttling of FCS Portland State in which the Cougars ran for a jaw-dropping 468 yards on 48 carries (9.8 yards per carry). They did so behind an equally impressive 79 line yards (4.9 per attempt). Although Stanford held Hawaii to 2.4 line yards per rush in Week 0, Arizona held Hawaii to 1.7, and I’m skeptical of the defensive line for the Cardinal. While the BYU ground game was responsible for the Week 1 win, the passing game, led by quarterback Bear Bachmeier, wasn’t an issue. Bachmeier completed 63.6% of his throws for 8.8 yards per attempt, and, more importantly, three touchdowns. Lock in BYU to cover the 20.5 for -110 (52.4%) to score a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.

Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson didn’t need to do much against Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors’ base nickel defense gave the Cardinal plenty of opportunities on the ground, and Gulbranson threw for only 109 yards. He did so on a shaky 3.6 yards per attempt. That’s a red flag, but he averaged 7.4 yards per attempt with Oregon State last year and 7.5 in 2022. The talent is there – it’s simply a question of volume. Unlike Hawaii, BYU won’t be as easy to beat at the line of scrimmage. BYU gave up a total of -4 line yards to FCS Portland State last week. While the Cougars will doubtlessly be able to pressure Gulbranson in the pocket, it’s less clear what they’ll be able to do once he gets the ball in his receivers’ hands. This total is sitting at a rock-bottom 145.5 passing yards, which points to a decent amount of value on the over.

True freshman Bear Bachmeier racked up five touchdowns in his debut for BYU last week, three passing and two rushing, and should be able to dice up his former team this week. Stanford is ranked No. 103 in SP+ on defense, and Bachmeier's physicality in the run game can expose the Cardinal. Bachmeier averaged over five yards per carry after contact in Week 1.

In the Cougars’ 13-10 win over FBS Idaho, they ended the game with three fewer first downs, 10 fewer total yards, and averaged a paltry 0.1 yards per rush. 

South Carolina has two of the best players in the country: LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart. Diego Pavia and Co. will have a tough time keeping up with the Gamecocks if they can't block Stewart, who has Shane Beamer's team ranked No. 10 in SP+ on defense. And slowing down Sellers is a big ask for the Commodores' defense that ranks outside the top 30 in SP+.

Though Tennessee is known for Josh Heupel's passing attack, it's the Volunteers' defense that carried it to the CFP last year. It once again looks poised to be among the best in the country - it's ranked No. 6 in SP+ - and Gunner Stockton might have some hiccups against it. The same goes for Joey Aguilar against Kirby Smart's ferocious dawgs. Georgia is ranked No. 3 in SP+ on defense.

Rich Rodriguez's return to the Backyard Brawl could be epic with the Mountaineers' rushing attack looking ready to run wild behind Jaheim White. So while Pittsburgh has a star of its own in Desmond Reid, these two teams are similarly talented - both rank between No. 35 and No. 50 in SP+. Given that this game is in Morgantown, Rich Rod's West Virginia squad should have the crowd singing Country Roads by the time the clock hits zero.

Can Billy Napier and DJ Lagway prove the Gators are for real this year? Maybe, but it won't be happening in Death Valley at night. LSU looks ready to finally win an SEC Championship under Brian Kelly, with the Tigers ranked No. 5 in SP+ behind the play of Garrett Nussmeier and Harold Perkins Jr. LSU's defense should be the difference with so many of its transfers hitting the ground running.

Mike Elko has similarly built Texas A&M as Marcus Freeman has built Notre Dame. Both teams play hard-nosed defense and, theoretically, want to run the ball. However, the Fighting Irish's offensive line looks like an issue that could negate Jeremiyah Love's talent against the Aggies. Meanwhile, Marcel Reed has Texas A&M ranked No. 17 in SP+ on offense. This shoud be a closer game than last year.

This game won't be short on storylines after Darian Mensah left Tulane for Duke in December. But for as talented as Mensah is, winning on the road against his former team after playing a physical Illinois squad in Week 2 is a big ask. Jon Sumrall has the Green Wave's defense stocked with talent, and it already shut down one P4 team, holding Northwestern to three points in Week 1.