South Florida vs. North Texas Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 7

With one of the biggest Group of Five games of the season slated for Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2) from DATCU Stadium in Denton, Texas, my South Florida vs. North Texas prediction and college football picks are backing the Mean Green to stay undefeated.

While this American Conference showdown under the Friday night lights may not get as much national attention as some of the other matchups our college football predictions for Week 7 cover, it's a can't-miss game that's essentially a pick'em between College Football Playoff hopefuls.

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🏈 South Florida vs. North Texas prediction

College football expert picks for Week 7; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: North Texas ML (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 66.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Drew Mestemaker Over 1.5 passing TDs (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win South Florida vs. North Texas?

Yes, South Florida has taken down Boise State and Florida, and yes, the Bulls are just one of two G5 programs ranked in the latest AP top 25. However, North Texas is set to make a statement on Friday night in front of its home crowd.

The Mean Green have turned the corner during head coach Eric Morris' third season at the helm for two massive reasons. One, they've found their QB in redshirt freshman Drew Mestemaker, who hadn't started a game since the ninth grade before starting North Texas' bowl game last year. And two, new defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity has been transforming the Mean Green's defense.

So while the Bulls are one of the best G5's in the country, and QB Byrum Brown is as dynamic as they come, North Texas is the more well-rounded team and should be able to pull this one out at home.

South Florida vs. North Texas score prediction: North Texas 33, South Florida 24

✅ South Florida vs. North Texas best bet

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🟢 North Texas ML (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is set to be one of the best weeknight games of the season between two programs that are clearly among the 10 best G5 teams in the country. That's why this line has already been moving plenty at our best college football betting sites. South Florida opened as a 2.5-point betting favorite, but some books now list the Bulls as a 1.5-point underdog while others are offering North Texas +1.

Still, I'm as confident in backing North Texas to win outright as I am about any pick I'm making in Week 7. The Mean Green have quietly been praying on their opponents and are rated as the second-best G5 team in the country by SP+ (No. 43). That's thanks in large part to an offense that Mestermaker leads, the running back combo of Caleb Hawkins and Makenzie McGill, and a deep pass-catching corps.

Morris' offense is No. 27 in EPA per pass and No. 15 in EPA per rush, which doesn't bode well for a South Florida defense that's No. 61 in SP+. And while Alex Golesh's hyper-fast attack showcases how dynamic Brown is behind center, there's not much around him. Brown could struggle against a North Texas defense that allows just 316.2 yards per game.

If North Texas can win outright, not only will the Mean Green be right there with Memphis in the G5 College Football Playoff odds race, but a $10 bet on North Texas will pay a $9.26 profit.

💰 Best South Florida vs. North Texas player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Drew Mestemaker Over 1.5 passing TDs (-135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The story of Mestemaker is almost unbelievable. A no-star recruit who walked on at North Texas after being a backup in high school, getting his shot as a freshman in the Mean Green's bowl game last year due to starter Chandler Morris entering the transfer portal. Then throwing for 393 yards and two touchdowns in his first start since the ninth grade.

Mestemaker then won the QB1 job coming into this season and has thrown 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions in five games, including two-plus three times. The redshirt freshman is one of just two QBs in the country with a big-time throw rate of at least 6% with a turnover-worthy play rate below 1%. He's as efficient as they come and can stress a South Florida defense that's ranked No. 73 in EPA per pass.

Morris has logged a long history of helping unheralded QBs develop (Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Ward, John Mateer), and Mestemaker could be next. And if he throws for at least two touchdowns on Friday night, a $10 bet pays a $7.41 profit.

📊 South Florida vs. North Texas odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch South Florida vs. North Texas: Week 7

• Date: Friday, Oct. 10
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: DATCU Stadium (Denton, Texas)
• TV: ESPN2