Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

Ryan Williams has been nonexistent for Alabama as of late. He's averaging 27.2 receiving yards per game over his last four games.

Oklahoma's defense is ranked No. 3 by SP+ and gets R Mason Thomas back. Simpson is averaging 160.3 passing yards per game in his last three outings.

John Mateer has gone Over 1.5 TD passes in back-to-back games against defenses ranked top 15 by SP+. He's also averaging 32.4 pass attempts per game, due to OU's inconsistent run game.

Isaiah Sategna III is by far the best offensive player Oklahoma has, and he's been at his best in the back half of the season. The Arkansas transfer is averaging 91.3 yards from scrimmage and has scored four TDs in his last six games. He's one of the best big-play receivers in the country, sitting No. 9 in YAC (513).

Oklahoma has an elite defense that kept Alabama in check the last time these two played. This time, the Sooners will have their best defender on the field, too, with R Mason Thomas set to return. That spells trouble for a Crimson Tide team averaging just 18.7 points against its last four SEC opponents.

Cuevas caught six passes for 80 yards and a touchdown against Oklahoma earlier this year. He hasn't played since that game, but he will take the field this week looking to replicate his previous performance.

Oklahoma has only allowed nine passing touchdowns this season. Though Bernard didn't score in the first meeting, he did catch seven passes for 71 yards. He has seven receiving and two rushing touchdowns this year.

Mateer leads Oklahoma with 130 carries and seven rushing touchdowns this season. He scored the first time he faced the Crimson Tide, and Alabama has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns compared to just 11 passing this year.

The Under has hit in 10 of Oklahoma's 12 games, and in five consecutive Alabama contests. Oklahoma is allowing just 13.9 points per game, while Alabama is allowing just 17.4.

Miami's offense runs through its freshman star, with Malachi Toney having 31 targets in his last two games. The Hurricanes will need him to be a focal point against the Aggies, especially with Toney having eight TDs in his last eight games.

Miami is in a position to pull off this upset because of its trench play. The Hurricanes are among just a few teams to rank top 10 in the Power Four in sacks and sacks allowed. If they can protect Carson Beck and pressure Marcl Reed, Texas A&M will be in trouble.

Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. scored 11 touchdowns in the regular season, reaching the end zone in seven of the 10 games in which he suited up.

Furthermore, Fletcher has touchdowns in 16 of the last 23 games where he’s had at least five carries.

There’s a reason why Miami’s Malachi Toney won ACC Freshman of the Year: He had 84 receptions (43 more than any teammate), 970 yards (413 more than any teammate) and seven TDs. Four of Toney's scores came in the Hurricanes' final three must-win regular season games.

Although Marcel Reed finished 33rd in the nation in total passing yards, the Texas A&M quarterback eclipsed 224 yards just five times in 12 contests. However, even though Miami’s pass defense ranked 30th nationally, four opposing QBs shredded the Canes for 248, 272, 274 and 365 yards - and none are as talented as Reed.

Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed is tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns with six. He had one in Week 2, while the other five came in the Aggies’ four October contests.

He's since endured a four-game scoring drought, but I still expect Reed to find the end zone against Miami, which has allowed five different opposing QBs to waltz into the end zone.

Since recording five touchdowns as a freshman at UConn, Keelan Marion has found the end zone just three times in the last four years (44 games).

Still, Miami’s fifth-year senior wideout is worth a flyer to score in the College Football Playoff. The reason: He touches the ball a lot, ranking second on the team in receptions and receiving yards.

Carson Beck was a touchdown-throwing machine down the stretch of the regular season, tossing 10 scores in the final three games. The Georgia transfer had multiple scoring strikes in eight of 12 contests overall and all four games on the road.

If any team is built to offset Texas A&M’s many strengths, it is Miami. The Aggies defense ranks in the top five nationally in success rate allowed, and is No. 2 in havoc rate. But the Hurricanes offensive line allows the second-lowest pressure rate in the country (1.4%). 

While Texas A&M’s offense ranks 12th in explosive completion rate, Miami should win the time of possession battle by playing at the 130th-slowest tempo in the country.

Ole Miss has a bunch of steady receivers for Chambliss to target, but I trust Harrison Wallace III the most to find paydirt. He may not lead the team in receiving scores, but he leads in receptions (46) and yards (719) on an explosive 15.6 yards per reception. That kind of volume translates into opportunities, which, in turn, translate into scoring plays. Wallace ended a long scoreless streak by finding paydirt versus Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl and racked up over 31% of his receiving yards through his last three games.

Although it can be fun to root for the underdog, Jake Retzlaff is a smart fade in Saturday’s College Football Playoff game. Retzlaff limped to 56 passing yards in his trip to Oxford earlier this year. He also threw for only 145 in the American championship game, which was a de facto playoff contest. Let’s lock in the under for a good price and hope Ole Miss rolls. We're getting an off-market number, so let's jump at it.

Saturday’s contest is a rematch of one played earlier this season in which Chambliss threw for 307 yards – on a monstrous 11.3 yards per attempt. Tulane’s defense is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt (and 8.7 on the road). Both sides have some question marks related to coaches and the transfer portal, but with Chambliss on a three-game streak of 300-plus passing yards (and him surpassing that mark in five of seven home starts), I trust him.

Gordon has six total touchdowns this season, and though he had only eight carries for 35 yards against Ole Miss earlier this season, he has a solid chance of scoring in this meeting, as Ole Miss has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this season.

Wallace leads Ole Miss with 46 receptions and 719 yards, and though he only has three touchdowns this season, he scored in his last game. Ole Miss scored 45 points and had 307 passing yards the first time they faced Tulane.

Stribling has scored three touchdowns in his last two games. In his first meeting with Tulane, he didn't score, but he did catch three passes for 62 yards.

Tulane was dominated the first time these teams met, but they still ran the ball well, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and racking up 178 yards. Ole Miss is allowing 150.5 rushing yards per game, which will allow Tulane to limit possessions in this game and keep the contest close.

Kenyon Sadiq was a complete mismatch all season against Big Ten teams, how is James Madison going to stop him? He's a TD machine, with at least two in two of his last five games.

The difference in size and athleticism between these two programs is massive. Oregon will dominate the trenches on both sides, and that should be the difference. It doesn't hurt that Ducks QB Dante Moore is projected to be a top 10 pick in April.

Sadiq has multiple games with two touchdowns, and he's caught eight of Dante Moore's 24 touchdown passes this season. He leads Oregon in receptions and is second in receiving yards, and at his size, I don't know how James Madison covers him.

Oregon has the third-best pass defense in the nation, so I expect Barnett to try to make plays with his legs. He has at least 10 carries in six of his last seven games, and he's rushed for at least 28 yards in 10 of 13.

Moore is averaging 227.8 passing yards per game, and he's topped 233.5 in seven of his 12 contests. James Madison is allowing just 171.5 passing yards per game, but they've only faced one Power 4 offense.

Landon Ellis is the only Dukes pass catcher with more than four receiving touchdowns this season. 

He enters amid a five-game touchdown drought. But he should see a higher uptick in volume like he did when he hauled in 40% of the team’s receiving yards in the only loss to Louisville this year. 

Malik Benson leads all Ducks pass catchers with 526 receiving yards and a 17.0 yards per reception average.

The strength of the James Madison defense is stopping the run, as the Dukes allow 2.48 yards per carry and 76.2 yards per game on the ground. Overall, they rank second in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, and are fifth in Stuff Rate.

If Oregon respects James Madison’s front seven, look for it to take shots early in the passing game, with Benson being its biggest deep threat. Of his four touchdown grabs this season, three came in the first half.

It may not be fun to lay the heavy favorite, but that’s simply the right move in this CFP first-round matchup. Last year, the home teams went 4-0 both straight up and against the spread. Oregon is a top-four team across the FPI, Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings.