SEC Best Bets Today: Week 11 ATS Predictions & Player Props This Week

My SEC best bets today for Week 11 envision that it could be the week of the home underdog within the Southeastern Conference. Both Mississippi State and Missouri are both getting a tantalizing amount of points relative to their respective capabilities at home.

Our college football Week 11 predictions also see Kentucky being likely to engage in another affront to offensive football when the Wildcats host Florida. Will we see plenty of points (or punts) in Lexington?

🏈 SEC best bets & expert picks today

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.

🔮 My best SEC predictions for Week 11

🐶 Mississippi State +9.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This line opened at Georgia -7.5 and briefly moved to -7 before ballooning to -9.5. Sometimes, with lines like these that look appetizing for the underdog, Vegas ultimately knows best. But I'm having a hard time getting off Mississippi State given its track record as an underdog—and at home.

Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in home games, taking both Tennessee and Texas to overtime. Georgia is 1-1 ATS on the road, and needed overtime to win at Tennessee. Mississippi State is 8-1 ATS overall, with its lone double-digit loss coming on the road at Texas A&M.

Georgia's pass defense has shown the type of vulnerability (65th in FBS, 224.4 yards allowed per game) that Blake Shapen has demonstrated the ability to exploit. DraftKings lists the best line on Mississippi State +9.5 with odds of -108. The implied probability at those odds is 51.92%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $9.26.

🐯 Missouri +7 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Whether Missouri’s offense can move the ball with true freshman QB Matt Zollers taking over for the injured Beau Pribula is unknown, but locally there’s a belief that Zollers is actually the more capable downfield passer after what he showed in relief at Vanderbilt.

Texas A&M has allowed 240.7 passing yards per game over its last three contests and has allowed 35.6 PPG in road games at Notre Dame, Arkansas and LSU. After Missouri’s defense became the first to shut down Diego Pavia, there’s a chance that DC Corey Batoon’s scheme can hold Marcel Reed in check relative to what other teams have done this year, allowing the Tigers to keep this interesting.

While most of the market has moved to Missouri +6.5, BetMGM offers Missouri +7 at -110 odds as publish time. The implied probability at those odds is 52.38%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $9.09.

⬇️ Florida-Kentucky Under 45.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kentucky has been involved in some ugly games this season, including last week’s 10-3 win at Auburn and the Wildcats’ overtime defeat against Texas, 16-13. Kentucky’s only game scoring more than 14 points in SEC play came against Tennessee, whose elite offensive profile and lackluster defense carved out a path to Kentucky putting up plenty of garbage-time scoring.

The matchup with Florida won’t be that way. The Gators have a top-20 adjusted defensive efficiency, but they rank outside the top 75 in adjusted offensive efficiency—as does Kentucky. Five of Florida's seven FBS games have finished below 45.5 total points. This could be a race to 20 points in Lexington.

At publish, DraftKings is the only book to offer the line at 45.5, with -118 odds on Under. The implied probability at those odds is 54.13%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.47.

💰 My best SEC player props

⬆️ Jam Miller rushing yards: Over 52.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With LSU allowing just 201.9 passing yards per game, we’re looking for Alabama to exploit the Tigers on the ground. LSU has been getting gashed regularly, as the Tigers’ last three opponents have averaged 218.7 rushing yards per game against them.

Jam Miller has had an uneven campaign to this point, as consistent health has been a challenge for the talented rusher. But despite recent efficiency concerns, I like Miller to clear 52.5 rushing yards given that he’s averaged 16.0 rushing attempts per game and has never seen fewer than 10 carries in a game this season. LSU allows 4.0 YPC to opposing rushers.

FanDuel offers the best line and odds combo at -114 odds on Over 52.5 rushing yards. The implied probability at those odds is 53.27%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.77.

⬆️ Ahmad Hardy rushing yards: Over 89.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas A&M doesn’t typically give up massive days to opposing running backs, but Arkansas’ Mike Washington did it in an A&M road game, going 16 carries for 147 yards. I expect Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy’s volume to exceed that level given Missouri’s desire to limit how much it asks of a true freshman QB in his first-ever start.

Hardy has cleared this line in six of eight games while averaging 5.9 YPC and 19.8 rushing attempts per game. To keep the pressure off Zollers and its defense, Hardy should be a significant part of the game plan.

BetMGM offers this line at 89.5 rushing yards with -115 odds on Over. The implied probability at those odds is 53.49%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.70.

💡 College football expert picks: Week 11

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