Purdue vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Picks: Low-Scoring Battle for Shillelagh Trophy
Notre Dame will look to get right after a 0-2 start when it hosts Purdue on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock) from Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Ind. While the Fighting Irish are a 26.5-point betting favorite, my Purdue vs. Notre Dame prediction is focused on the Under as part of our college football predictions for Week 4.
And although defense should define this game, my college football picks also target an unheralded running back to show out in the battle for the Shillelagh Trophy.
🏈 Purdue vs. Notre Dame prediction to win
College football expert odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Notre Dame (-2500 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Purdue +26.5 (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Purdue vs. Notre Dame best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬇️ Under 51.5 (-106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame has gotten off to such a slow start that its College Football Playoff odds are now plus money. But starting the season against Miami and Texas A&M's offenses was a huge ask for new defensive coordinator Chris Ash. With Marcus Freeman expected to be more involved in the defensive game planning going forward, this should be a get-right game for the Irish's talented defense.
Purdue is ranked No. 91 in SP+ on offense, while the Hurricanes and Aggies both sit in the top 20. Look for the Irish's No. 28-ranked defense in SP+ to hone in on running back Devin Mockobee and force Ryan Browne to beat them through the air. Browne is coming off a three-interception performance against USC.
But despite Browne's struggles last week, the Boilermakers held a Trojans offense that's No. 3 in SP+ to 33 points. With CJ Carr producing an iffy showing against Texas A&M (three turnover-worthy plays), Barry Odom and Michael Scherer's transfer-heavy defense is capable of doing enough to hold the Irish to no more than 40 points.
If Purdue can hit the Under for a fourth straight game this season, a $10 bet pays a $9.43 profit.
💰 Purdue vs. Notre Dame player prop pick
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Jadarian Price Over 62.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Yes, Jeremiyah Love was the most significant Heisman Trophy odds-contending running back entering the season. But his line of 101.5 rushing yards against Purdue is a little high for my liking. Instead, I'm supporting his backup to produce a strong day against the Boilermakers.
Price has been the more explosive runner of the two early, with defenses keying on stopping Love, and a nice lead against a lesser opponent should mean more second-half work for Price. The junior topped this number against a strong Texas A&M defense last week while rushing for 68 yards on 12 carries. He's logged more 10-plus-yard runs (five) than Love (four) this season.
Last year, Price popped off for 86 rushing yards on just eight carries against Purdue. If he can go for 63-plus again this season, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit at FanDuel.
📊 Purdue vs. Notre Dame odds: Week 4
Purdue vs. Notre Dame odds update live in real time.
📈 Purdue vs. Notre Dame opening odds
- Moneyline: Purdue +2000 | Notre Dame -10000
- Spread: Purdue +27.5 (-110) | Notre Dame -27.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)
🔍 Purdue vs. Notre Dame odds analysis
The Fighting Irish opened as a 27.5-point betting favorite, with the line dropping to between -26.5 and -24.5 at our best college football betting sites. While the Boilermakers' offense has struggled this season, I'd take them to cover as long as they're at least a 24.5-point underdog.
Meanwhile, the Over/Under has come down from as high as 54.5 to as low as 50.5. I'd have a much harder time backing the Under if that number drops below 49.5.
🔢 Purdue vs. Notre Dame key stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Purdue (2-1) | Statistic (per game) | Notre Dame (0-2) |
|---|---|---|
| 27.3 | Points | 32.0 |
| 16.7 | Points allowed | 34.0 |
| -1.3 | Turnover margin | -1.0 |
| 271.7 | Passing yards | 257.0 |
| 119.7 | Rushing yards | 114.5 |
| 190.3 | Passing yards allowed | 282.5 |
| 125.0 | Rushing yards allowed | 131.0 |
| +0.5 | Net yards per play | -0.2 |
📺 Purdue vs. Notre Dame game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 20
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Ind.)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
❓ Purdue vs. Notre Dame FAQs
Who is favored to win Purdue vs. Notre Dame?
Notre Dame is a -2500 moneyline favorite at home against Purdue.
What is the spread for Purdue vs. Notre Dame?
Notre Dame is a 24.5 to 26.5-point betting favorite at home against Purdue.
What is the Over/Under for Purdue vs. Notre Dame?
The Over/Under for Purdue vs. Notre Dame is 51.5 points.
What are the best bets for Purdue vs. Notre Dame?
The best bets for Purdue vs. Notre Dame are Under 51.5 points (-106) and Over 62.5 rushing yards for Fighting Irish running back Jadarian Price (-114).
When is the Purdue vs. Notre Dame game?
Purdue vs. Notre Dame is Saturday, Sept. 20, at 3:30 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock) at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Ind.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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