Oregon vs. Iowa Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview
This week’s marquee matchup in the Big Ten takes place at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa, and I’m making my Oregon vs. Iowa prediction as part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
No. 9 Oregon heads to No. 20 Iowa as a consensus 6.5-point betting favorite in Saturday’s nationally televised battle (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This is one of three Week 11 matchups pitting ranked teams against each other, and the only one involving Big Ten foes.
✅ Oregon vs. Iowa prediction & expert picks
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💵 Best Oregon vs. Iowa bets
📊 Oregon vs. Iowa odds
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🏈 Oregon vs. Iowa preview & score prediction
Rain is expected to start falling about a half hour before kickoff and continue through most (if not all) of the game. Throw in a steady breeze, and the wind chill will bring the temperature to right around freezing, making it tough to move the football. That’s one reason I love the Under on 42.5 in this contest.
The more significant reason? Both defenses are phenomenal. Iowa ranks third nationally in total defense (234.9 yards allowed per game), while Oregon sits fourth (239.4). Both squads also field top-five pass defenses. So look for a lot of clock-eating runs in this one.
Stingy defenses will stand tall
Most importantly for my Oregon vs. Iowa prediction, both defenses erect brick walls when opponents approach the goal line. The Hawkeyes (13.1 points per game) and Ducks (13.5) rank fourth and sixth, respectively, in scoring defense. Each squad has allowed 12 touchdowns across eight games.
This total jumped late in the week from 40.5 to as high as 42.5 at FanDuel. The -110 odds carry an implied win probability of 52.38%. Risk $10 to win $9.09.
Score prediction: Oregon 20, Iowa 10
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🆚 Oregon vs. Iowa matchup to watch
Mark Gronowski vs. Oregon's secondary
Iowa is 6-2, but not because of quarterback Mark Gronowski’s right arm. The fifth-year senior who spent his first four seasons at San Diego State is averaging 118.3 passing yards per game.
Gronowski’s passing totals in his last three outings are 135 yards versus Minnesota, 68 against Penn State, and 107 at Wisconsin.
Those three teams respectively rank 46th, 14th, and 86th nationally against the pass. Oregon? It boasts the stingiest secondary in FBS while allowing just 124.6 air yards per contest.
Just how tough have the Ducks been on opposing QBs? Rutgers’ Athan Kaliakmanis registered just 79 yards at home two weeks ago against Oregon. Kaliakmanis has thrown for more than 252 yards in every other game this season.
Best prop bet: Mark Gronowski Under 132.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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📈 Oregon vs. Iowa betting trends
| Oregon | Statistic | Iowa |
| 7-1 | W-L record | 6-2 |
| 5-3 | ATS record | 5-2-1 |
| 4-4 | O/U record | 4-4 |
| 7.36 | Yards per play | 5.15 |
| 4.05 | Yards allowed per play | 4.01 |
| +5 | Turnover margin | +1 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| W, 21-7 vs. Wisconsin | Previous result | W, 41-3 vs. Minnesota |
🌤️ Oregon vs. Iowa weather
Cold and wet conditions are expected Saturday in Iowa City, Iowa, with a better than 60% chance of rain right before kickoff. Temperatures at kickoff will be in the low 40s, with 10-15 mph winds dropping the mercury to just above freezing with the wind chill.
The brisk, damp, and breezy environment could hinder both teams’ passing attacks, likely resulting in a low-scoring game.
📺 How to watch Oregon vs. Iowa
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)
- TV: CBS
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