Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

This was supposed to be a massive G5 matchup, but Memphis was just upset by UAB as a 21.5-point favorite. The Tigers also lost star QB Brendon Lewis to injury in the loss, which is going to make it hard for the Tigers to keep up with Byrum Brown against a USF defense that's top 30 in both EPA per rush and pass. 

Rutgers and Purdue is a matchup of two of the five winless Big Ten teams in league play, and the two opponents have lost nine consecutive games between them.

While Rutgers feasted on Ohio, Miami (OH), and Norfolk State to open the season 3-0, it has since lost its four conference games by an average of 19.5 points, despite only facing one team in the top six of the Big Ten preseason media poll.

UCLA allows the most rushing yards in the Big Ten (186.0) and ranks last in the P4 in sacks (6). Fernando Mendoza averages 21.6 rushing yards per game and should find success tucking and running against the Bruins. UCLA is allowing opposing starting QBs to average 51.3 rushing yards per game during its three-game win streak.

UCLA has been on a magical run under interim head coach Tim Skipper, but Indiana is a different beast. The Hoosiers are No. 6 in EPA per pass thanks to Fernando Mendoza and rank No. 4 in SP+ on defense. Meanwhile, the Bruins' three wins ahve come against teams that are just 9-12 ATS this season ... Indiana is 4-2 ATS since Week 2.

North Carolina should steady itself for the remainder of the regular season with Gio Lopez back under center. The signal caller played in his first game action last week since the season opener, and promptly led the Tar Heels to a season-best 287 yards against Power Four competition.

Virginia is fortunate to be ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll and one of the unbeaten teams in ACC play, as it was victorious in three games where it had a 45% or lower postgame win expectancy. 

The Cavaliers have also allowed pressure on 31.6% of quarterback Chandler Morris’ dropbacks, while North Carolina’s defense ranks in the top 20 and 50, respectively, in Line Yards and pass rush.

With John Mateer looking healthier last week, he should be a big part of Oklahoma's run game against Ole Miss. The Rebels are just No. 125 in EPA per rush on defense and allow the second-most rushing yards per game in the SEC (166.7). Mateer has scored in four of six games this season.

Oklahoma ranks No. 10 in EPA per rush on defense, allows the third fewest rushing yards in the country (80.4), and leads the nation in sacks (28). Trindidad Chambliss has totalled just 57 rushing yards on 20 carries in his last two games.

Isaiah Sategna hauled in Oklahoma’s only passing touchdown last week, and has four total touchdowns in the last four games. He is the only Sooners pass catcher with more than two receiving touchdowns, and his 493 receiving yards are 129 more than his next-highest teammate’s.

Many will be quick to back the Unders on several Ole Miss player props, given that Oklahoma allows the fewest yards per game (213.0) among all FBS Teams. 

By competing more in the time of possession battle, I expect a bounce-back game from Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy after his 31-yard performance last week. In addition, look for Kiffin to call for a more balanced offensive approach after attempting 36 passes and 24 runs against Georgia.  

I am buying low on Mateer’s passing yards total entering this week, given that Ole Miss could not stop a nose bleed against Georgia last week. 

Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton completed a season-high 83.9% of his passes and turned in his second-best QBR of the season (96.9). The Bulldogs also scored on all eight of their possessions (five touchdowns and three field goals) excluding kneeldowns.

Chambliss has scored five times this season, including twice last week. He's rushed at least 11 times in four of his last five games, and though he only ran nine times last week, seven of those rushes came inside of the Georgia 30.

Kanak hasn't scored this season, but he's second on Oklahoma with 364 yards entering this solid matchup. Last week, Ole Miss gave up three touchdowns to Georgia tight end Lawson Luckie, as he and his teammate Oscar Delp combined for nine catches for 85 yards.

Sategna leads all Oklahoma receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He's John Mateer's favorite target, and after scoring a touchdown in three of his last four games, he should find the end zone again against a mediocre defense.

Despite averaging over 35 points per game, Ole Miss has been held to 24 points twice this season. I expect Oklahoma to keep Ole Miss near that season low, while the Sooners' offense, which is averaging just 28.7 points per game, struggles to take advantage of a mediocre defense.

Oklahoma is allowing the second-fewest points per game in the nation, but Ole Miss just put up 35 on Georgia last week. Even if Ole Miss struggles a bit offensively, Oklahoma has yet to score more than 26 in a game against a power conference team, which will allow Ole Miss to hang around late.

John Mateer looked much crisper in Week 8 against South Carolina after a sporadic return from his thumb injury for Red River the week before. With Mateer's steady hand behind center, Oklahoma's offense should be able to do enough to win at home against an Ole Miss team coming off a loss to Georgia. The Rebels' defense is an issue (outside the top 25 in SP+), and its offense might struggle to make up for it against a Brent Venables defense that's No. 3 in SP+ thanks to stars like R Mason Thomas.

After Arkansas put up 42 points on Texas A&M (17th in adjusted defensive efficiency) last weekend, there's reason to believe the Hogs can score on just about anybody.

Auburn's offense (averaging 13.5 PPG in SEC play) hasn't shown us recently that it can keep up.

Taylen Green has been one of the best QBs in the nation, despite Arkansas' inability to win. He's No. 3 in QBR (90.9) and No. 13 in passing yards (1,910) while averaging 272.3 passing yards per game in SEC play. Auburn ranks No. 106 in EPA per pass on defense.

Since being installed as the starter, freshman QB Mason Heintschel has won three straight games, including at Florida State while also handling two other ACC foes by a margin of 58 combined points across the other two wins. Pitt has scored 37.3 PPG over this span.

NC State is 1-2 ATS in road games with consecutive double-digit losses as the away team.

Germie Bernard is Ty Simpson's favorite target and is leading Alabama in TDs this season (6). With Bernard being more heavily involved in the run game, too, it doesn't hurt his chances of scoring his seventh TD in seven games. South Carolina is just No. 68 in EPA per pass on defense.

LaNorris Sellers' passing yards prop against Alabama has been plummeting since it first hit the board, and for good reason. First, the Crimson Tide allow only 154.6 passing yards per game (10th fewest in the nation).

More importantly, Sellers has had a dismal follow-up to his sensational sophomore season. Take out a 302-yard performance against Missouri in Week 4, and South Carolina's quarterback has averaged 141.6 passing yards and hurdled 153 yards just once (209 in the opener against Virginia Tech).

Coming off a concussion, Alabama lead running back Jam Miller played sparingly last week at Tennessee (12 carries for 15 yards). But he did score on a 1-yard run, his second touchdown in three games.

Miller missed the Crimson Tide's first three contests while recovering from a dislocated collarbone, so he's just now hitting his stride. And going up against a defense that has given up 876 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in the last five games, I expect the senior to have his best game of the season and get in the end zone at least once.

This is a total contrarian play, as Alabama's Ty Simpson has thrown multiple TD passes in all seven games this season (and 18 in all). The only other QB in the country with 18-plus TDs and at least two in every game: Baylor's Sawyer Robertson.

This week, though, Simpson faces a South Carolina defense that has given up seven passing scores in seven contests. It's a defense that can be run on, though, and I expect the Crimson Tide's game plan to take advantage of that. Should that transpire, Simpson will have fewer chances to put the ball in the end zone through the air.

The Gamecocks have scored just 44 points in four matchups against SEC opponents that are currently ranked (11.0 PPG).

They have lost those games by an average margin of 15.5 PPG. Alabama’s defense has allowed 17.7 PPG (16th in FBS).

Alabama’s pass defense is lethal, allowing just 154.6 passing yards per game (sixth in FBS). Sellers has not surpassed 153 passing yards in his last three games.

LaNorris Sellers' offensive line has killed his ability to make plays through the air. He's the seventh-most pressured QB in the country (92) and the second-most sacked (25). Alabama is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game in the SEC (154.6). 

The Crimson Tide have knocked off four consecutive ranked opponents (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee). They now have this game sandwiched in between home games against LSU and Oklahoma after a bye next week, and that has me backing the Gamecocks in a prime letdown spot for the favorites.

One dash of optimism for South Carolina is that it held Sooners quarterback John Mateer to a season-low 150 passing yards last week. 

Since that Week 1 loss to Florida State, Alabama has beaten four teams ranked top 20 by SP+ while QB Ty Simpson has turned into one of the best Heisman bets in the country. Meanwhile, South Carolina has lost four of its last five, including a 19-point loss at home in Week 8 to Oklahoma. LaNorris Sellers can't do everything for this team, which is why the Gamecocks are 2-4 ATS since Week 2. On the other hand, Alabama is 5-0-1 ATS since losing to the Seminoles and is one of just five teams ranked top 15 on offense and defense by SP+.

Though not Missouri's top weapon, tight end Brett Norfleet has been Beau Pribula's safety net. Pribula has his highest NFL QB rating when targeting his tight end (122.0), and Norfleet has been at his best in Missouri's biggest games - a combined 10 receptions for 114 yards and three scores against Kansas and Alabama. Vandy has allowed the most TD passes in the SEC (13).

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has led his team to its first 6-1 start since 1950. But I am buying low on the dual-threat signal caller after he totaled a career-high 79 scramble yards against LSU last week, the most by a Commodores quarterback in the last 15 years.

LSU blitzed Pavia on 13 of his 31 dropbacks, which resulted in zero turnovers and zero sacks. Thus, Missouri will likely rely on its front four to get pressure, and the Tigers’ 14% sack percentage in SEC play is the second-highest in the conference.

Kevin Coleman is top five in the SEC in YAC (272), contested catches (6), forced missed tackles on receptions (11), and first down catches (25). Vanderbilt's defense is No. 113 in EPA per pass and has allowed the most TD passes in the SEC (13).

In what could be a game with huge CFP ramifications, Missouri stacks up well against a Vanderbilt team led by Diego Pavia. The Tigers front seven is special and has helped their defense allow the  fifth-fewest yards per game in the country (243.0). And Missouri's offense has a star in running back Ahmad Hardy, who's capable of exposing a Vandy defense that's ranked No. 37 by SP+.

Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has passed every test so far and overcame three interceptions in the previous two games by playing turnover-free football against a stout Utah defense last week.

Bachmeier is now one of four true freshman quarterbacks to start their careers 7-0, and the first since 2018. His versatility as one of two freshman quarterbacks in the country with eight-plus rushing and eight or more passing touchdowns makes him difficult to prepare for.

Texas only scored 13 points in regulation at Kentucky last week, which wouldn’t even have been enough to cover the 13.5-point spread if it pitched a shutout. It will be fatigued after managing just eight first downs and losing the time of possession battle by nearly 19 minutes, while its offensive line issues (seven tackles for loss and three sacks allowed) again reared its ugly head.

Miami wide receiver CJ Daniels is coming off his most productive two games of the year. After racking up a season-high 78 yards against Florida State in Week 5, Daniels came back last week and turned a season-high seven receptions into 74 yards.

On Saturday night, Daniels gets to punish the nation's third-worst pass defense — one that has allowed 11 different receivers to clear 70 yards just since Week 2 (including five who topped 100 receiving yards).

Mark Fletcher Jr's combined rushing totals in his first four games: 388 yards on 66 carries (5.9 yards per rush). Fletcher's rushing numbers the last two weeks? 48 yards on 20 carries (2.4 yards per rush).

I'm not sure the reason for Fletcher's production dropoff. But I am sure that Stanford has been pretty good against the run this year (117 yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry) and absolutely dreadful against the pass (304.7 yards per game). Look for Miami to exploit that 134th-ranked secondary, which could mean another long night for Fletcher.

Two weeks ago, Miami quarterback Carson Beck had four touchdown passes in a win over Florida State. Two weeks prior to that, Beck threw for three scores in a rout of South Florida.

Florida State has surrendered 12 TD passes this season, while South Florida has allowed 10. Stanford? It has yielded 13 aerial scores, including 10 during a three-game stretch that preceded last week's upset of Florida State.

Yes, Beck was shutout in the TD department in last week's loss to Louisville. Still, he's recorded three-plus TDs 10 times in his last 30 games.

Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck is coming off throwing a career-high four interceptions. But he still completed more than 80% of his other passes and averaged an elite 10.8 yards per completion. His ability to generate explosive plays will come in handy against a Stanford defense that entered last week ranked 26th nationally in third-and-fourth-down defense.

Miami entered last week ranked 36th in available yards gained per drive and 33rd in Early Downs EPA. Thus, I do not expect the Hurricanes to face many third and fourth downs early, nor do I have confidence in Stanford’s defense if it does force those situations.

The Cardinal have won both of their ACC home contests against east coast teams (Boston College and Florida State) that had to travel across the country. Now Stanford makes the reverse trip out to Miami, and it has lost three of its four road games by 24 or more points thus far. In addition, Stanford is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games against AP-ranked teams.

When Wisconsin plays a top-tier QB, the Badgers get toasted on defense. Both Ty Simpson and Julian Sayin threw four TDs against Wisconsin, and Dante Moore should find similar success. The Ducks QB is No. 1 in the country in big-time throw rate (8.1%) and No. 4 in TD passes (19).

Trey'Dez Green has become LSU's best playmaker over the last two weeks. The 6-foot-7 hybrid tight end has 13 receptions on 17 targets for 193 yards and two scores in his last two games. Look for Garrett Nussmeier to continue utilizing him against a Texas A&M team that's allowed the third-most TD passes in the SEC (11).

Aggies wide receiver KC Concepcion is ranked 19th among all wideouts in PFF receiving grade. And for as stout as LSU’s defense has been statistically which leads to its high Defensive SP+ ranking, it is also 96th in Finishing Drives allowed.

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has not had success pushing the ball downfield this year. On throws of 25-plus yards downfield, Nussmeier has completed just one of 16 attempts. That means his most likely path to this Over is banking on a long catch-and-run.

Texas A&M ranks fifth in the SEC with 196.7 rushing yards per game. While it is still without its best running back, Le’Veon Moss, I expect quarterback Marcel Reed to continue to take on much of the running responsibilities.

LSU ranks sixth in Defensive SP+, but it has been much better against the pass than the run this season. 

Since Le'Veon Moss got injured two weeks ago, Owens has scored three touchdowns. Six of the last eight touchdowns allowed by LSU were rushing scores.

Brown has only scored once this season, but he leads LSU with 32 receptions. Texas A&M is allowing 1.6 passing touchdowns per game, and with LSU likely trailing for some of this game, back Garrett Nussmeier to go to his favorite target a lot.

Craver hasn't scored since Week 3, but he leads Texas A&M with 36 catches for 674 yards. Though LSU is allowing less than one passing touchdown per game, Texas A&M is averaging 2.3 per contest, and Marcel Reed won't be shut out on Saturday.

Texas A&M ranks among the FBS top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies.

LSU boasts the 11th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, but has given up 24 and 31 points in its only respective games against teams ranking above 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

With Mansoor Delane playing 85.3% of his snaps at outside cornerback and KC Concepcion playing 67.2% of his snaps at outside wide receiver, the two are likely to match up often. Delane has allowed just six receptions for 77 yards on 23 targets this season.

LSU connected for one of its touchdowns on a 62-yard pass play from Garrett Nussmeier to Zavion Thomas. That is important because Texas A&M entered last week 124th in Points Per Opportunity allowed but 108th in Explosiveness allowed. That suggests teams weren’t scoring often, but displayed quick-strike ability against the Aggies.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M has a similarly versatile offense to Vanderbilt which totaled nearly 400 yards of offense against the Tigers last week. The Aggies entered ranked in the top 45 in Finishing Drives and Success Rate. They then hung 40-plus points on its opponent for the fourth time this year, and totaled 497 yards while averaging 6.2 yards per rush.

Texas A&M has what it takes to navigate a difficult road environment like Tiger Stadium. It entered last week ranked in the top 25 in penalties and starting field position, and only committed seven penalties while converting eight of 14 third and fourth-down opportunities in a difficult road environment in Fayetteville.

LSU has struggled to score this season, managing more than 24 points just once all year. Texas A&M has scored at least 31 in six of seven games, and though the LSU defense has been good, the Tigers have allowed at least 24 points twice.

Don't let the vibes being worse at massive programs like Penn State, Florida, and Florida State distract you from the fact that Brian Kelly's seat is heating up. LSU is 0-2 ATS against its two ranked SEC opponents this season, both outright losses, and 2-4 ATS since beating an overrated Clemson team in Week 1. As for Texas A&M, the Aggies look like a legit CFP contender thanks to an explosive offense led by QB Marcel Reed. Reed has Mike Elko's team ranked No. 6 by SP+ on offense ... LSU is No. 48. The Aggies have covered in two of their last three.

The Spartans face a tough test against Michigan, who ranks in the top 10 in Defensive Rush EPA. Frazier has also not broken a run longer than 15 yards this year, and he will likely need at least one big gainer to go Over this projected total if his workload is again diminished, just as it was last week when he totaled one rushing yard on seven carries.

In home games under Stoops, Kentucky is 55-35 with a +6.8 points per game differential and +15 turnover differential. In neutral site or road games, the Wildcats are 24-42 with -7.7 points per game and -28 turnover differentials. 

Now Kentucky has a big scheduling advantage playing a second straight home game against a Tennessee squad in its third road tilt over its last four games.

Colorado is 0-2 ATS in road games, losing at TCU and Houston by an average of 15.0 PPG while falling short of covering the spread by 6.0 PPG. 

Colorado should struggle to contain Utah rushing attack as the Buffaloes permit 188.1 rushing yards per game (108th in FBS).

Wayshawn Parker averages 6.0 YPC and has seen 8+ carries in each of his last three games. Colorado allows 4.7 YPC (99th in FBS).

Kaidon Salter finally came through for Colorado last week, throwing for 255 yards in an upset of Iowa State. However, Salter has yet to produce two consecutive solid games.

In fact, aside from Iowa State and Wyoming (304 yards), Salter has averaged 149.3 passing yards per outing, topping 160 yards just one other time (217 at TCU). As for Utah's defense, it ranks 11th in the nation against the pass and has not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 169 yards all season.

For some reason, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham last week iced out running back NaQuari Rogers, who had just one carry for 2 yards in an upset loss at in-state rival BYU.

Despite being a total non-factor in that contest, Rogers reamins the Utes' third-leading rusher (and second among running backs). And prior to the BYU game, Rogers tallied at least 37 rushing yards in all five of Utah's games against FBS competition. As for Colorado, it surrenders 188 rushing yards per game.

NaQuari Rogers was MIA from Utah's game plan last week against BYU, getting just one carry for 2 yards. Still, the running back leads the Utes with six touchdowns, four of which he scored in the three games prior to playing at BYU.

With dual-threat starting quarterback — and second-leading TD scorer — Devon Dampier banged up and questionable for Saturday's game against Colorado, Rogers likely will be the lead dog when Utah is near the goal line.