Oregon vs. California Picks, Predictions College Football Week 9: Will Nix Continue Heisman Push?
The Oregon Ducks are the final Pac-12 team with an undefeated conference record heading into Saturday's contest with the California Golden Bears. Check out our Oregon-California picks.
Oregon is one of the hottest teams in the country and has reached its highest ranking of the season (No. 8 in the AP Poll) by winning six consecutive games. The Ducks won their 23rd straight home contest, beating then-No. 9 UCLA in the first top-10 Pac-12 matchup since the conference championship in 2016. Oregon improved to 6-0 in top-10 matchups all time at home.
Meanwhile, California has lost three consecutive games, all to conference opponents. Its last two losses have been by seven points apiece, and the loss to Washington in its previous game was its first home loss of the season.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 9 game between Oregon and California (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 9, as well as our best bets.
Oregon vs. California Info
Date: Saturday,
Oct. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Location: California Memorial
Stadium, Berkeley, CA
Weather: 68 degrees, 12% chance of
precipitation, 8-mph W wind
Oregon vs. California Odds
Oregon vs. California Odds Analysis
Oregon has moved from a 15- to a 17-point favorite through the week. As of Saturday morning, the Ducks have drawn 55% of the handle on 77% of the tickets.
The Over/Under opened at a consensus line of 56 and is up to just 56.5 with 69% of the tickets but just 27% of the handle on the Over.
Oregon vs. California Picks
- Spread: Oregon -17 (-110 via Caesars)
- Over/Under: Under 58.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Prop bet: Oregon -9.5 first half (-110 via DraftKings)
Oregon vs. California ATS Pick
Oregon -17 (-110) ★★
It is incredible how far Oregon has come since its Week 1 49-3 shellacking by Georgia. Entering last week, the Ducks averaged 49.8 points and 552 yards per game since Week 2, both of which were second in the FBS in that span.
Oregon then proceeded to hang 45 points and 545 yards on UCLA and has now scored 40-plus points in every game during a six-game winning streak. What the Ducks did on offense against UCLA was impressive, considering the Bruins entered the game with the Pac-12's best total defense (344.8 YPG allowed).
Quarterback Bo Nix is experiencing a career renaissance under head coach Dan Lanning. Nix ranks sixth in total QBR after never topping 30th in that metric in his three seasons at Auburn. Nix is responsible for 25 touchdowns (17 passing, eight rushing) during the six-game winning streak. His eight rushing scores are tied for fourth-most among FBS quarterbacks, and he became the first Pac-12 quarterback to reach 12 passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns through the first six games since Marcus Mariota in 2013.
Considering California is the second-worst scoring offense in the Pac-12 at 23.3 points per game, we do not expect it to keep up offensively with the high-powered Ducks.
Oregon vs. California O/U Pick
Under 58.5 (-110) ★★★★
Oregon's offense has gotten most of the credit for the team's six-game winning streak, as the Ducks rank 47th in defensive SP+ compared to fourth in offensive SP+. However, despite allowing UCLA to score 30 points for a 10th consecutive game (longest streak in school history), Oregon was still quite impressive defensively.
UCLA entered that game averaging 42 points 512 yards per game (on pace for a school record), 7 yards per play, and a 46% third-down percentage, all of which ranked in the top 10 in FBS. However, the Ducks held the Bruins to 448 yards and minimized the damage despite allowing the Bruins to convert 6-of-12 third downs.
Oregon allows opponents to convert more than 50% of third-down opportunities, but a California offense that ranks 109th in offensive SP+ will not take advantage.
Oregon vs. California Prop Pick
Oregon -9.5 first half (-110) ★★★
Though many will worry about a hangover from Oregon after an emotional win over UCLA, we expect the Ducks to realize the importance of keeping their names involved in the CFP conversation as a one-loss Power 5 team. The Ducks have the Pac-12's best run defense (110.6 YPG allowed) and will use that to stifle a California offense that will look to keep the ball away from Oregon early.
Where to Bet on Oregon-California Picks
Oregon-California picks made 10/26/2022 at 6:17 a.m. ET
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