Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Can Razorbacks Run Over Rebels?

Since 2008, underdogs are 12-2 ATS with six outright upsets in the head-to-head series between the Rebels and Razorbacks. Read on for our Ole Miss-Arkansas picks and predictions.

Henry John

Last updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 4 min read

Since 2008, underdogs are 12-2 ATS with six outright upsets in the head-to-head series between the Rebels and Razorbacks. Read on for our Ole Miss-Arkansas picks and predictions.

In what is arguably the most intriguing game in the SEC this weekend, the Ole Miss Rebels will travel to Fayetteville for a primetime showdown against the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Fresh off a bye week, Ole Miss (4-5-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U) figured to be catching mighty Alabama in an ideal spot last Saturday. The Rebels led for the majority of the game but failed to close the deal at home. Now eliminated from SEC title contention, Ole Miss will be focused on achieving a 10-win regular season and possibly a New Year’s Six bowl bid.

Meanwhile, Arkansas (5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U) comes in on the heels of back-to-back home losses. After being upset by Liberty two weeks ago, the Razorbacks came up just short against LSU last Saturday. Arkansas has two more chances to win its sixth game and achieve bowl eligibility including this week’s home finale.

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 12 matchup between Ole Miss and Arkansas (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 16, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: SECN
Location: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Weather: 33 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-8 mph winds S

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Odds

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Odds Analysis

Las Vegas oddsmakers opened Ole Miss as a 2-point road favorite in this spot. The market consensus has since grown by half a point to now favor the Rebels by 2.5.

Looking at the ticket counts for this contest, it’s clear that Ole Miss is the preferred choice of the betting public. At the time of writing, nearly 90% of all ATS bets at DraftKings Sportsbook are on the Rebels.

As for the total, an opening line of 59.5 has climbed up to 64 over the course of the week. Oddly enough, this line move actually runs contrary to the prevailing public opinion. At DraftKings, over half of all bets are on the Under. However, 90% of the handle is positively correlated with the line move to the Over.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Picks

Side: Arkansas +2.5 (-106 via FanDuel)
Total: Over 63.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
Prop: Arkansas Over 30.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas ATS Pick

Arkansas +2.5 (-106) ★★

Based on the overall body of work from these two teams this season, Ole Miss probably deserves to be a slight favorite. Despite being without starting quarterback KJ Jefferson, Arkansas covered as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

By all accounts, bettors should handicap Saturday’s game with the assumption that Jefferson will be back under center for the Razorbacks. He has been practicing all week and head coach Sam Pittman has expressed confidence that he will suit up.

Statistically speaking, the difference between Arkansas’ offense with Jefferson is massive. When Jefferson has been healthy this season, the Razorbacks have averaged nearly 37 points and close to 500 yards of offense per game. Without him, those averages dip to just 15 points and 383 yards.

The Ole Miss run defense failed to hold up for a full 60 minutes last week against Alabama. Given that Arkansas operates as a run-first offense, this is actually a positive matchup. Operating behind a stout offensive line, Raheim Sanders is more than capable of wearing down the Rebels’ defense.

The fact that Ole Miss is a run-heavy offense is also beneficial for this Arkansas defense. Add in the Hogs’ recent success in this head-to-head series, especially at home in Fayetteville, and bettors have a multitude of reasons to get behind the underdog.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas O/U Pick

Over 63.5 (-114) ★★★

With the total having moved in excess of four points across much of the market, the best of the number is admittedly long gone.

Since knocking off Kentucky back on Oct. 1, Ole Miss has given up at least 28 points in five straight games. Making that stat even more concerning is the fact that three of those games came against sub-par and/or dysfunctional offensive teams in Vanderbilt, Auburn and Texas A&M.

Ole Miss’ defense rose to the occasion against Alabama last week. Despite the strong effort, the Rebels still gave up 30 points. With a healthy Jefferson, Arkansas is more than capable of wearing down the Rebels’ defense on the ground in a manner similar to what LSU and Alabama have accomplished within the past month.

Another major factor to consider is the pace at which both teams like to operate offensively. The Razorbacks come in averaging the eighth-most plays per game in the country. Meanwhile, when the Rebels have the football, they run a play every 20-25 seconds on average.

Combine the up-tempo style of both offenses with a lack of confidence in both defenses, and a full-blown shootout could very well transpire.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prop Pick

Arkansas Over 30.5 points (-115) ★★★★

As previously noted, a healthy Jefferson makes a world of difference for the Arkansas offense. The Razorbacks have scored at least 31 points in all but two games in which Jefferson has started this season.

Add in the fact that Ole Miss has proven to be vulnerable against the run defensively, one has to favor the Hogs’ offense in this matchup. With other sportsbooks listing Arkansas’ team total a full point higher, bettors should prioritize making this wager through DraftKings in order to ensure optimal market value.

Where to Bet on Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

See our top-rated sportsbooks:

Ole Miss-Arkansas picks made 11/17/2022 at 2:55 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.