Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Picks, Predictions College Football Week 9: Heated Battle Between Ranked Teams
Oklahoma State is up to No. 9 in the AP Poll after winning four of its last five games entering Week 9. Kansas State enters the week at No. 22 in the country after a 38-28 loss to the same unbeaten TCU team that took down the Cowboys. Read on for our top Oklahoma State-Kansas State picks.
For Oklahoma State (5-2 against the spread, 6-1 Over/Under), this marks the third week in a row it's facing a conference opponent that is ranked in the AP Top 25. The Cowboys rebounded from an overtime loss on the road against TCU with a gutsy home win over Texas as betting underdogs last week.
Speaking of rebounding, Kansas State (4-2-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U) will be aiming to do exactly that on Saturday. Last week, the Wildcats lost each of their top two quarterbacks to injury. As a result, K-State got shut out for the entire second half in a road loss to TCU.
Here are our picks for the Week 9 matchup between Oklahoma State and Kansas State (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 9, as well as our best bets.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Weather: 67 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-9-mph winds SE
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Odds
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Odds Analysis
Bettors are aligned on Oklahoma State with 77% of the tickets and 55% of the handle but the consensus spread has dropped from the opening line of a pick'em to favoring the Wildcats by 1.5 points.
The Over/Under has experienced similar reverse line movement. The opening number of 57.5 is down to 56 as of Saturday morning despite 89% of the handle and tickets being on the Over.
As for the game total, an opening line of 57.5 has come down slightly across the market. Consensus odds now list the O/U at 56. The move is clearly shocking for many public bettors as more than 90% of all bets are on the Over at DraftKings.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Picks
- Spread: Kansas State -1.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-109 via BetRivers)
- Prop bet: Dominic Richardson Under 62.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State ATS Pick
Kansas State -1.5 (-105) ★
This may be one of the marquee games of the college football weekend, but it is also one of the toughest to bet on, at least for the time being. With Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez still being considered day-to-day, it’s impossible to get a true read of what the Wildcats’ offense will be capable of.
On the bright side for K-State, backup QB Will Hall isn’t exactly a slouch. In fact, he played arguably the best game of his collegiate career last week against TCU despite picking up an injury of his own. Hall does have experience subbing in from previous seasons, as well.
Regardless of who winds up being under center for K-State, it will be facing an extremely vulnerable Oklahoma State pass defense. The Pokes are allowing a gaudy 329.3 passing yards per game, the second-worst mark in all of FBS. The problem for the Wildcats is that they rank 110th in average passing yards per game offensively.
Going back even to previous years, Kansas State’s offense has been predicated on running the football. This season, Martinez has added an even greater rushing threat at quarterback alongside star tailback Deuce Vaughn. Considering how effective the Texas ground game was against the Pokes last week, one has to believe that K-State can achieve similar success.
Oklahoma State benefitted from winning the turnover battle and not committing a single penalty in the win last week. For as well as Mike Gundy has fared in the underdog role (15-2 ATS since 2018), the Cowboys essentially have to win this game outright on the road to cover the small number.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State O/U Pick
Over 55.5 (-109) ★★
Given that Martinez’s status remains in jeopardy, it’s not a shock to see the line gradually shrinking across the market. However, a belief that Hall can get the job done if pressed into action results in a lean toward the Over.
Oklahoma State’s defense lost a ton of talent and experience in the offseason, as well as coordinator Jim Knowles. Many felt that the Cowboys were primed for regression in 2022, and that has certainly been the case. OSU has allowed 25 points or more in each of four games against Big 12 competition. On the season, the Pokes are allowing 32.3 points per contest.
Meanwhile, Kansas State has also been fairly hit-or-miss defensively. Three of four conference opponents to date have put up at least 28 points on the Wildcats. The only team that didn’t, Iowa State, has arguably the worst offense in the Big 12.
In addition, the Cowboys have run 83.7 offensive plays per game, the second-most of any team in the country. Bettors should expect the fast-paced offense to continue on Saturday as OSU tries to keep the K-State defense on its heels.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prop Pick
Richardson Under 62.5 rushing yards (-114) ★★★
Is Dominic Richardson healthy? One has to wonder just how many touches Oklahoma State’s junior running back will get on Saturday after he was absent from the second half of last week’s game due to an ankle injury.
In his absence, sophomore Jaden Nixon and freshman Ollie Gordon both played well against Texas. Richardson has been quite ineffective of late, averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry in four of the last five games. If he plays, it’s hard to count on him to blow past 62.5 rushing yards, especially against a solid Kansas State defensive front.
Where to Bet on Oklahoma State-Kansas State Picks
Oklahoma State-Kansas State picks made 10/27/2022 at 6:18 p.m. ET
Related Articles
